Perhaps it’s the crystal crack meth I’m holding in my portfolio, and the fact that each of them is a loser, but what looks like minor damage on the S&P has my portfolio down 1.5 percent today.  If I was heavy long, sure, that makes sense, but with cash over 50 percent it comes as a bit of a surprise.  It’s like oh hello April, I see you’re coming in like a lion.

So I’ve been forced to take two losses today; first I cut Yelp, and this afternoon Ford.  Here’s the gist, at this juncture, I’m not loosening risk and letting setups work.  Ford very well could turn around this week, but the daily chart is sloppy, and not something I’m lending patience to right now.

Yelp plum fell on its face, as did most of the social media space. To hold even a trace would be a disgrace. I want only the ace. I want the ace.

My holdings now are (by size) CMG, ANGI, AIG, ZNGA, CREE, and old pokey aka AWK.

We could talk about each and what they’re doing, but you have charts yes?  You see much of what I do, no?

Here’s my bottom line: there’s lots of POMO on tap this month.  It’s a strange environment.  As we wind down into the close, we’re getting a b-shaped profile, suggesting long liquation and not much more.  The sellers made progress on many individual charts, but they haven’t taken the big board yet.  Moreover they haven’t controlled the big board all year.  However, this is a new quarter, a page turn if you will.  Therefore we all need to stay vigilant.  Like, why the hell is the Yen so strong today?  Just be cognizant of the environment.  I’m a bit unsure, hence my huge cash.

Be well.

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“Make things as simple as possible but no simpler” – Albert Einstein

I know some of you don’t like posts about individual setups and I kindly invite you to take your reading elsewhere.  However, if banking coin is your top priority, more so than amusement, I suggest you add Chipotle to your watchlist this evening for potential long trades tomorrow.

Since I’ve just returned home and I’m in the sharing is caring mode I want to explain exactly how to trade this setup.  Young guys, listen up because you won’t get much advice like this for free on the internet.

A tight moving average like the 9ema (or 10 sma, 13 ema, etc.) is excellent to key off of because it’s close to the price action.  To get even closer, look at the open, high, low, close of the previous two sessions using daily candles.  With this information we have enough data to cue off of for a trade.

In the case of the CMG play, we like how price has behaved recently, check it out:

I’m already long this name, and took some profits before heading on vacation.  Now that it has pulled back in a reasonable manner, I’m ready to get back to full size in the name.  I want to see exactly the following occur to get me to buy more:

Take out Tuesday’s high

That’s it!  If it sounds simple, that’s because it is simple to trade.  Our first profit target is the most recent peak around $335.  If we approach those levels, closely monitor intraday action and find a good price to scale out.  Then keep a piece on in case the momentum picks up and the trade gets legs, the crème if you will.

Your risk is down to $314 so you’re risking $9 to make $12 on a setup with around a 68% win rate.  Believe me, the numbers work in your favor.  Just trade it well.

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