Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4^th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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Apropos that I would get all excited about the LED industry last night and not over the weekend putting me one day behind the move.  The kicker of it all was stalking GTAT yesterday but not pulling the trigger.  I wanted to see a capitulation move lower.  This is an example of an opportunity where getting half my position on would have worked.  And given the gaptastic nature of AIXG, I don’t want to chase it higher.  I’m shaking my fist at the entire industry.  At least I have my CREE.

All last night I thought about how much I wished I had bought BIDU and SCTY into the bell.  They both looked great on a closing basis.  So I came to market and bought them both today.  Now I don’t really want SCTY.  I can be so fickle at these choppy junctures.  No less than three times I’ve considered rolling all the SCTY funds into BIDU.

I’m getting really excited about this TPX trade, it’s working out well.  Look at that weekly chart.  Another strong weekly candle has to have you seriously considering this name for an intermediate term swing long.  Yes, I’m talking my book.

I cut RENN and HSOL, but the rest of my China basket is in place, lined up in marching formation, ready for ramming speed.  Actually HSOL looks ready for ramming speed too.

At one point I was 92 percent long.  I had to adjust that down a bit.  I cut ODP, RENN, HSOL, and DDD.  All-in-all, I have too many longs if you ask me.  I’m bombarded with great setups and my ADD has gotten the best of me.  None of these trades looks bad at this point; they just don’t look as good as my other longs.

Now I’m sitting 75 percent long, awaiting The Fed.  I’m very slightly red on the day, and my broker loves me.

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They’re showing up more and more.  Look around.  Check out the latest municipal project in a town near you.  Keep an eye on the businesses that you consider innovative and on the cutting edge, the LEDs are coming.

As you know, I’ve made my bed with CREE.  I’ll ride this stock to zero if need be.  The stock is up 85 percent year-to-date.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you, bang the drum, and play along for the duration.

We’ve played around with some other names, diddling really, trading the pumps in RVLT and LEDS.  That’s all I’ve conjured the conviciton to do because I find the companies to be shit, for lack of a better word.  But I’m getting the craving to commit more capital to an intermediate term idea.

With that in mind, I would like to turn your attention to Aixtron, ticker AIXG.  There is a lot to like here, so we’ll go through the following bullet points then we’ll look at the lovely charts:

1. They’re German
2. They have Chinese factories or “Training Facilities”
3. They have a sales office in California, where the gold is
4. They have a sales office in Israel, where the Israelites live
5. They don’t have a hovel website like other LED companies (cough, cough, LEDS)

All of that is nice, but you know what really matters most to me, the price charts.  Price is lining up on both the daily and weekly timeframes.  These foreign stocks trade awful intraday and often gap all over the place, but if you accept that, we’re looking at a nice risk entry.  This one also may be too thin for some of you bigger players.  Nevertheless, have a look:

You have to give it risk to $15, but PPT members, have a look at the proprietary statistics…we may not see much opportunity lower.  Either way, a smaller position size until the position starts to work or offers better entry for a double down may be the best way to play this name.

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