Berlin is one of the most brilliant cities in the world.  The civil engineers were given the appropriated budgets and they produced magnificent methods of transportation.  Their parking garages are stunning pictures of modern design, their rails run on time, and their freeways, well everyone around the world envies the smooth autobahn.

And when you’ve engineered structural greatness you want lighting that’s equally breathtaking.  Lighting is the icing on the cake, it’s the makeup artist, and when using LEDs it’s an elegant leap into the future of visual stimuli.  Oh yeah, it uses 80 percent less energy than traditional HID lighting.  That too.

So when I see a strong Euro dollar, and a country like Germany that’s concerned with energy production and conservation I want a piece of the action.  What better way to get your piece of Germany than their premier LED company?  It’s traded here in the USA via AIXG.

Now it’s an ADR and trades lousy intraday, and yes, I’ve been in it forever and I’m hyping up my own book, but the move hasn’t happened yet, and I would be doing you a disservice to not bring this idea to your attention [again].

Here’s an updated chart and as I see it, it’s finally worked out of a consolidation formation, it’s resting on the 9ema, and ready to do work.

Full Disclosure:  I own many shares of AIXG.  If you buy AIXG because of this post, a panzer tank will come give you a lawn job, and you may lose money.

 

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Cree shares are in the toilet after reporting soft guidance after the bell.  I can only see this as a buying opportunity.  If it presses my RVLT shares lower, I’ll be looking to buy more of their shares too.  Listen to me very carefully: LEDs are coming in a big way.  There are hundreds of millions of light bulbs that will be updated to LED technology.

Cree was priced for perfection going into earnings, it worried me.  I could have lightened my shares, but then I risked having to buy them higher on a positive reaction.  I’ve been biding my time with CREE, letting it effervesce for months, hoping for an opportunity to add exposure into some blood.

It appears I have my opportunity.

Shares are down nearly 15 percent on the news.  My cost basis is much lower so the market will have to do worse to shake me. I’m a buyer down here, but I intend to do so with laser like precision.

The CREE chart has needed to reset since February.  This isn’t a trade.  It’s a multiyear thesis that will crush.  The numbers out of CREE look great to my eye.

MOVING ON…

There’s nothing you can do, sans having illegal insider information, to avoid the type of loss I was forced to take in OCZ today.  Sometimes you get unexpected news, especially when you’re digging through dumpsters looking for winners.  You have to cut the names as gracefully as possible and take precautionary measures to protect your emotional capital or avoid tilt as some say.  I should have probably sold on the first bounce, instead of nursing the position late into the afternoon.

I am experiencing winship in the AIXG today, I’ve waited quite some time for this name to get active, and it will be interesting to see if CREE is a negative contagion tomorrow.

My peanut gallery of stocks were mostly down today with the exception of ONVO and IMMR.

Tonight I’ll be formulating plans to accumulate the blood in LED and I will burn thickets of sage to cleanse these demonic losses out of my home.

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As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today.  Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG.  This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.

That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.

I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats.  If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now.  And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.

I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell.  I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community.  How?  The Blu eCigarette.  When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space.  I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers.  My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit.  Fun stuff, I know.  I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.

I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport.  Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR.  I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.

I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.

I bought more OCZ today.  This is my aggressive pumper.  I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks.  I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump.  I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.

My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.

That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash.  Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…

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Every time I circle back on the prospects of LED technology I’m blown to bits by the size of this market and it’s supple virginity.  There are piles of money sitting all across the country, waiting to be gathered by the right group of prospectors.

I really don’t even like telling you about it too much, because I want it all for myself.

RVLT was on sale this week, I don’t doubt it will go on sale again.  And you should buy it, with great pomp and vigor.  When you go out tasting cocktails with your boyfriends you should brag about your RVLT shares.  When you’re playing grab ass in the parking lot, you should open your trunk and pass out the literature you’ve prepared discussing the future of the LED industry.

Get them in on it, be their leader you big homo.

Obviously CREE is a proof of concept, trading near all-time highs.  Of course they’re stealing the headlines nailing big time contracts with universities and municipalities.  But there’s so many other business out there, low hanging fruit, which will be snatched up at a rapid rate by none other than RVLT.

I think these jackasses are finally getting that, instead of trying to be the dude with the biggest patent, they need to focus on driving retro fits, driving the ball down the field if you will.

We can get cute and trade these stocks with our ADD, or we can grab our nuts and slap a flag on top of the mountain, MIEN!

You know I’m in bed with the German retards at AIXG.  You know I’m in bed with CREE.  What you don’t know is RVLT is my sexy mistress, wearing the most revealing dresses and the latest styling’s from Tom Ford.

Everyone’s still shortsighted on the LED industry, trust.

Past Reads:

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/01/23/new-buy-cree/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/01/28/the-most-exciting-industry-and-how-to-game-it/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/02/17/the-next-big-trade-it-is-big/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/02/18/on-second-thought-big-trade-redux/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/06/17/2013-is-still-the-year-of-the-led/

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Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:

AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O

Cashish, it’s high, about 50%

TOP PICK: I WISH I HAD ZILLOW DAMN!

I like END the best baby

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And just like that I’m managing a -10% position.  It’s 2/3 size too, dragging my book down nearly a full percentage.  I’m talking about none other than action camera extraordinaire Ambarella, Inc.

“It just happened so fast.” – Famous last words.

Seriously though, this is what happens when you’re caught in a momentum downdraft.  There were too many weak hands in this name apparently.  Perhaps the weak hands still exist, flailing around, in need of correction.

I’ll have you know I’ve been corrected my entire life.  My 4^th grade teacher would slap my hands with a yard stick for disrupting Bible studies.  Even with carbon dating, I could never convince her dinosaurs existed.

“God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test our faith in Jesus.”  Right…may I have another slice of Jesus body?  I’m starving.

With AMBA, we’re in an IPO environment and the company creates camera components.  It’s not some social concept that curious minds gather around and debate where the money comes from.  IT COMES FROM SELLING PRODUCT.  There ought to be some buyers down here, perhaps at my final buying tranche.

I’ve clearly built into the name too soon, enticed by the virgin blood.  I’m in bed with the name now, prepared to deploy more capital between $15.50 – $14.25.

TPX went on a rally today, still my largest position, and perhaps I should just cut my losses at this point, down a mere 10 percent.  Perhaps, but the chart resembles bracketed trade, ranging from 35 – 50 so the greater risk at this very moment is to the downside.  That is, if my bracket theory is correct.

FaceBook is really bringing some heat to the market.  It’s exciting to see.

I had quite the run on GTAT today, but I’ve already sold most of it, booking a cool 6 percent in profits.  I’ll always grab that bread when it’s offered.  I still hold a runner that wants more, more, more.

I’ve held AIXG for so long, since June, and it has done NOTHING.  HOWEVER, it has done nothing.  All the while Europe is sucking, including Aixtron’s brethren from another reverend Deutsche Bank whiffing on earnings.  So perhaps any updraft will lift this name with great vengeance and furious anger?  I’ll stick around a bit longer.  This is my German LED play, BTW.

I have several other small positions, 25% cash, and a 10% FXY position as we ride into a very headline heavy day tomorrow.  I suppose I’m feeling lucky.

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My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below.  Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.

Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.

I’m brooding so hard right now.  But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!?  Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it.  It’s mine, I spend it.”

Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.

The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action.  It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context.  So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts.  Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.

I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.

Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more.  They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late.  When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything.  I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it.  A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD.  The next day it makes an even BIGGER move.  Pair that with the following bullet points:

1.) http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/07/10/a-titanic-shift-in-the-oil-markets-are-underway/

“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”

2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.

I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:

I took my first scale in O.  You have to get paid when the market pays you.  Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.

I took my first scale on TPX.  It’s still my largest position and top pick.  Next target is $50.

I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.

I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):

TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE

I want some EXK too, call it position overload.  I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.

EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WAR

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I sold out of Goldman Sachs near the open and missed the entire rally, I was moved by the strong sell flow early on in the S&P futures.  The same sell flow also marked the low of the day, at the key price confluence highlighted this morning.  The market turned here and ran 8 handles higher closing just off the highs.

I wasn’t offered opportunity to get on board the move until late in the session, and feeling underexposed, I added to my TPX, AIXG, and FB longs.

TPX is officially my largest position, constituting about 18 percent of my portfolio.  I’m now playing a game of chicken with the shorts as we approach earnings July 22^nd.  Obviously, I don’t want to carry this entire position into earnings, so I will be a seller into strength.  I wanted to make sure I had enough in the name to allow for some scaling, but still offer modest positioning into their earning’s announcement.

AIXG caught a nasty downgrade today.  Shares were off over 5 percent and I’m near my stop point so I doubled my long.  The position isn’t quite full size, more ¾, with a plan to scale off the additional shares at or near my original purchase price of $16.87.  Max pain is below 15/share.

I added to my FB long.  My basis in the name is right around here.  I liked it last time we were trading at 25, I like it even better now that there’s a base beneath.

As awesome as this week has been for longs, my gains are excruciatingly modest due to matters way beyond my control.  Like the clown baby who went full Rachel Ray and started “The Truth About The List” which can only be described as childish.  There’s nothing wrong with being childish, it can be rather entertaining.  As a matter of fact, I laughed out loud when I first saw the site.  I even wrote about it in my diary!

“Citizen for Internet Transparency made a funny website today” it read, “it made me laugh.”

The humor wore off when the shares gapped down nearly 4 percent today.  How much of this move is attributable to the hit site is unknown, but unless things get turned around rather quickly, it’s as if an anti-momentum laser was fired at the shares.

This feels a lot like the anxiety phase of an upward move which is what keeps me pressing my longs even though a part of me wants to cash out.  Also we’re capturing these upside levels that seemed a bit farfetched which is surprisingly bullish.

http://youtu.be/2YcIgow6TDk

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The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap.  This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.

Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’

With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day.  None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations.  The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse.  It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.

Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much.  I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.

My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well.  When one is feeling down, the other is up.  Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much.  You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment.  I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.

People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning.  What the fuck?  You start a business.

ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap.  This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must.  My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.

FB looks kind of hot, finally.

My LED stocks are getting hammered today.  Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward.  I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.

AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.

F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.

I’m currently at 13 longs.  I prefer a max 12.  But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.

 

 

 

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You’ll hear reports this afternoon about how the market gave up its “POMO Pump” and how we’re going to hell in an Egyptian hand basket.  You’ll also read two or three articles speculating about Friday morning’s Employment Report.  Bears want a good number, odd no?  Did we close off the high of the day?  We did.  Did Fords!?  No.

On the surface, today did nothing.  If you sleep at night, and couldn’t care less about the picture our overnight markets paint, you awoke to a modest gap lower, you bought it, you ate a hoagie, and then you enjoyed capital appreciation, like a good American.

Completely aside, did you see the abortion protestors and their haters getting “Hail Satan” trending on twitter?  For a moment I thought UNXL reversed.  Protestors continually blow my mind…where does one find the time?  Then again I care about nothing.

AIXG started working today, finally.  I want to have a nice, stable, long term relationship with AIXG, none of this run and gun business.

O has several traders on the edge of their seats.  On one hand the stock is way oversold.  On the other hand, the momentum is yet to truly shift.  We’re in the courting stage where everyone’s nice but not being completely real, you know what I mean?  I’m yet to reach my initial profit target at 44.44.

ANGI looks so ready and I look forward to dropping bombs on the paraquat who called me a bag holder citing the .com bubble.  LOL

Z however, continues to be a bumpy ride.  I still like the look.

That’s all my thoughts.  Have a safe holiday everyone.  I love me some fireworks, but I never “hold the mortar tube.”  You shouldn’t either.

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

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