Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:58am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ enters calm drift, FOMC meeting begins, here is the Tuesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price worked sideways overnight, holding Tuesday range during a balanced trading session. At 8:30am CPI data was inline with expectations.
Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down and buyers quickly driving up into it. Then, after a consolidation drift lower was unable to take out IB-low, a secondary, initiative wave of buying stepped in, pushing us RE up. We spent the rest of the day churning along the 7200 century mark.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7211.75 setting up a move to target 7235.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 7181 setting up a move to target 7155.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 7250 before two way trade ensues.
Overall not expecting much movement with the FOMC meeting beginning today. We are likely to enter a holding pattern until the Wednesday afternoon Fed rate decision.
NASDAQ trading action was balanced overnight as the NASDAQ chopped sideways on elevated volume on and normal range. Price held the Friday range during Globex, and as we approach cash open there is a slight gap down.
The economic calendar is light today and becomes more busy as the week progresses. The US Treasury is busy today. We have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am. There is a 3-year note auction at 11:30am, and a 10-year note auction at 1pm.
Last week buyers extended the rally that began two weeks ago. The Dow was particularly strong. The performance of each major US index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down and sellers attempting to reject us down and out of the Thursday range. However, after briefly going range extension down in the morning, a responsive bid stepped in. We then spent the rest of the afternoon in a slow algo-grind higher.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7175.75. This sets up a move to take out overnight high 7184.75. Look for sellers up at 7200 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7150.75 setting up a move to target 7100 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7235.50 before two way trade ensues.
It took me many hours to work through the Sunday process of building the Exodus strategy session. Not because there was lots of information to digest but because my ADD is popping off. Like I heard a bird halfway through the last sentence and my brain went to work identifying it as a woodpecker. Then I looked out the window for it. Then I came back to the computer and before you know it I was reading a Wikipedia on the cockatoo.
But the model is the model and it is nearly four years old. Muscle memory carried me through completion and it generated a bullish bias. There are lots of other contextual pieces to support the claim including the NASDAQ transportation index which appears to be in a new discovery phase.
The model cannot predict how investors will react Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Reserve makes their rate decision. The gambling halls in Chicago are giving a 91.3% probability of a 25 basis points lift in the benchmark borrowing rate. This is a live meeting and even though we all pretty much know a 25 basis point hike is to be announced, we have no idea how the markets will react to the fact. So we use third reaction analysis to give us patience and then we go with the third reaction into the end of the week.
It really is that simple.
And most of investing and trading is simple. The problem is, keeping things simple isn’t easy. Our ADD kicks in. Some friend-of-a-friend hears that the tests at some pre-revenue biotech company are going well and we buy a couple 100 shares, despite that never being part of our simple plan. Bad dog. Smack yourself on the nose with a newspaper.
This is my birthing week. Perhaps that is what has me distracted. But before then I am hosting an investor meetup downtown. If you are around Detroit Tuesday afternoon, come hang out. We are going to review what has happened over these last 6 months and formulate a plan for the second half of the year. Here is a link to some more info about the event: https://www.meetup.com/Detroit-Investors-Traders-StockTwits-Meetups/events/251111628/
I am giving another talk at the end of the month during Detroit Startup week. That one is going to be cool. It’s at the YMCA so I may work in some deadlifts while we talk about starting small and building beautiful investments.
But for now our job is to ready ourselves to trade Monday. Then we will prepare to trade Tuesday, and so on. You can start by reading the Exodus Strategy Session. Or you could take the important step of building your own research. Both are good. Or you can just take my word that the model is bullish and if it turns out I’m wrong you can assuage all guilt onto me. That’s classic interneting.
Exodus members, the 186th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!
This is a solid event space. Lots of room. 7th story views of iconic Woodward avenue and of a city in hyper-growth mode. I’ll have to projector screen running to pull up charts or any other information our open discussion leads to.
WHEN:
Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM
DETAILS:
A gathering of minds to discuss domination of the financial markets. I managed to secure the event space at WeWork Merchants Row Tuesday, June 12th from 6:00-7:30pm because I want to bring the group together and observe how the financial markets have behaved over the last 6 months.
There will be pizza, beer, coffee, and filtered water.
This is an excellent opportunity to meet other finance professionals in the Detroit area and expand our understanding of the financial markets as a group. Do you want to take control of your investments? Let’s look at some of the latest tools in fintech. Everyone has different goals and there are certain tools that may meet those needs. We can dig right in and see what could work best.
LINK TO RSVP:
Please RSVP if you plan to attend. It makes my planning (which I do the day of) much easier. Here is the link:
StockTwits Detroit Merchants Row Meetup III
Tuesday, Jun 12, 2018, 6:00 PM
WeWork Merchant’s Row 1449 Woodward Avenue Detroit, MI
11 Market Enthusiasts Attending
A gathering of minds to discuss domination of the financial markets. Greetings everyone, hopefully your Memorial weekend is off to a good start. Friday afternoon I managed to secure the event space at WeWork Merchants Row Tuesday, June 12th from 6:00-7:30pm because I want to bring the group together and observe how the financial markets have behav…
RAUL here listen up. I love bringing this group together. We have diverse backgrounds and skills and it enriches all of our understanding of high finance. Come out if you can.
Fri Jun 8, 2018 9:18am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ erases weekly gains overnight, roll forward shenanigans afoot, here is the Friday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked down into last Friday’s range overnight after most of the week was spent working higher off the gap up into Monday’s open. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Thursday low.
There are no economic events today. However, most active trading has rolled forward to the September contract. The price levels in this report are still in reference to the June contract.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and brief push to record highs before reversing and trading lower. Price worked to just below the Wednesday low before a responsive bid stepped in near end-of-day and pushed price back to the daily mean.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reclaim the Thursday low 7140.50 setting up a move to close the overnight gap up to 7164.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers reject a move up through 7140.50 setting up a move down through overnight low 7077.75. Look for buyers down at 7062.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 7212 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Jun 7, 2018 9:03am ESTComments Off on New record NASDAQ high overnight, here is the Thursday trading plan
NASDAQ futures traded higher overnight, extending upon the record highs achieved Wednesday during a globex session having normal range and volume. As we approach cash open price has drifted lower, and we are coming into the open with a slight gap down. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer credit at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began flat and with sellers pushing into the tape. Said sellers pushed us range extension down very briefly but were unable to take out the Tuesday low. Instead we traversed the entire daily range, putting us into a neutral print. Then buyers became initiative in the afternoon and rallied the market into the close, ending the session near the high.
Neutral extreme up.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7215. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7234.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers trade us down to 7193.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7166 before two way trade ensues.
Wed Jun 6, 2018 8:59am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ nearly ticks record high overnight, here is the Wednesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, nearly achieving a record higher before settling into two-way trade. At 8:30am trade balance data was better than expected.
The only other economic event today is crude oil inventories at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. You have to squint to notice that we briefly went range extension up in the late morning before responsive sellers stepped in and pushed us neutral, filling the overnight gap along the way. Then buyers stepped in and returned us back through the range, nearly to session high by end of day.
Neutral, maybe neutral extreme.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down through overnight low 7175.50. Look for buyers down at 7174 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 7155.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7203.75 setting up a move to target 7209.25 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Jun 5, 2018 8:56am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ extends rally overnight, here is the Tuesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight trading well up into the upper quadrant of the trend down that occurred March 13th. As we approach cash open prices are hovering near Globex high.
On the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services composite followed by a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond last Friday’s range and a drive higher. This set the tone, and after some morning chop buyers extended their campaign higher before settling into a tight balance.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7148.25. Look for buyers down at 7141.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers step in ahead of Monday session high 7151.50 setting up a move to take out overnight high 7174.50. Look for sellers up at 7181.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7187.25 setting up a move to target 7200.
Mon Jun 4, 2018 8:54am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ extends Friday strength into the new week, here is the Monday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked higher overnight in a steady campaign of buying that took prices to levels unseen since mid-March. As we approach cash open prices are hovering up near overnight high.
On the economic calendar today we have factory and durable goods orders at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Last week a three-week-long stalemate broke higher. The holiday shortened week began weak and finished strong, steadily working higher from Wednesday-thru-Thursday before going into trend up mode Friday. The performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and drive higher out of Thursday range. The morning was violent, with big range and sellers attempting to respond to higher prices. However their efforts were overrun and we continued to trend higher into the afternoon, eventually coming into balance near session high and drifting into the weekend.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory but fail to reclaim the Friday range. Instead, responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to the Friday close) step in and defend around 7091 setting up a move to take out overnight high 7120.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above overnight high 7120.75 setting up a continued trend up to 7159 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 7082.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7071.75. Look for buyers down at 7062.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Some of you refuse to accept that your skills are being automated away by big-brained boys and girls one third your age. You can take solace in knowing that Exodus was created by a Space Alien Magician who is in fact immortal. Nevertheless, Exodus is eliminating the need for a, umm…how do I put this, financial services professional if only you can manage to assuage the responsibility of choosing stocks to the quant.
Presented without further commentary, the performance of my quarterly quant, built exclusively with the tools inside Exodus, performing live via Motif investing for ease of implementation and return-to-date verification.
Next adjustment occurs at end-of-June.
Total annual commissions $40.00. Total other fees $0.00.
