China will win the trade wars but the real victory is the friends we make along the way

I love the Chinese mentality right now.  It could maybe make me sad that when I travel outside the United States, other world citizens will identify me alongside the ideologies of my President, but let’s just not talk about it.  The whole idea of nations is a flimsy social construct.  Some rules written on pieces of paper.  The only human fantasy worth associating with are the public markets.  If it weren’t for electronic futures, like if we re-enter the Cold War only this time everyone ignites their new bombs and these bombs knock electronic futures offline alongside all other computer stuff—hell I’ll take to trading alpacas and pirated diesel fuel.  I don’t care.

Put me anywhere and I will do my best to create a market in-and-around something.  “You want to buy? I have this for you today only, best price.  Oh, you meant to sell?  Let me know about how’d much you’re thinking to charge okay maybe I buy.”

China is playing long-term like thirty human generations out and we’re still trying to keep the baby boomers afloat.  My China correspondent, ROBERTO BREGANTE, informed me that this is the message being parroted by top executives from the Far East:

Chinese economy like sea, not a pond…when the storm comes the pond disappear, but when the storm leaves, the sea is calm and eternal.

Don’t bet against companies, religions, people, nations, who have proven an ability to think long-term and execute their vision.  Companies like Tesla and Google come to mind.  Religions like Scientology and Jehovah Witness.  People like Elon Musk or Genghis Khan.  No nation comes to mind.  It’s a flimsy construct.  But does any of this really matter?

No, not really.  The andromeda galaxy will collide with ours soon no matter how big any person or cognitive bias grows.

I suppose all that matters is enjoying your blip of time here on Spaceship Earth, taking a shot at intergalactic travel if you have the opportunity, and being kind.

That’s it, and remember, JUNE IS RAUL’S MONTH.

Raul Santos, June 9th, 2019

PS – still bullish

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher around 3:30am after spending much of the overnight session in balance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims and trade balance data came out worse-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper-quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and drive lower.  Sellers managed to close the overnight gap within the first hour and continue lower, nearly tagging the naked VPOC of Tuesday before discovering a responsive bid.  Buyers then worked price back up through the daily midpoint and defended it for the rest of the session.  We ramped higher near end-of-day but not enough to push neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7264.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers up at 7300 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7181 setting up a move to target 7178.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7307.25 setting up a move to target 7347.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, after being balanced until about 5am New York.  Price probed up into last Thursday’s range before finding responsive sellers.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out well below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Thursday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services data at 1oam followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and drove higher.  Said buyers reversed all of Monday’s selling pressure by late morning then continued to campaign higher throughout the afternoon, eventually ending the day at high-of-day, near last Friday’s high.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 7200.  Buyers step in here, ahead of the gap fill, and work us up through overnight high 7245.25.  Look for sellers up at 7256.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 7259.50 to set up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers at the 7300 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 7181.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7176.75.  Look for buyers down at 7158.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range until about 3:30am New York, when buyers stepped in and began to campaign for higher prices.  As we approach cash open, price continues to probe higher and is currently pegged above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell talking policy in Chicago starting at 9:55am.  Today is a good day to have a quality squawk service for monitoring that event.  Also durable/factory goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The week began with a gap down and drive lower which successfully closed the 3/11 open gap.  It also discovered a strong responsive bid.  Said bidders took us back to the daily midpoint and we chopped along it for several hours before another wave of selling came through.  Despite two more significant legs lower, including one which resolved the open gap left behind on 2/11, responsive buyers were still engaging the tape.  We ramped into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap down to 6995.25.  From here buyers step in and work us higher, through overnight high 7066.25 to tag 7074.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we poke up to 7074.50 off the open, find strong sellers who work us lower, closing overnight gap 6995.25 and continuing lower through overnight low 6981.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 7075 setting up a move to target 7100 then the open gap at 7135.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, extending the selling seen last Friday and continuing to probe down into the 03/11 conviction buy day’s range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing along with construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week markets worked lower.  The holiday shortened week kicked off Tuesday with early buying across the board.  Said buyers were overrun by Tuesday afternoon.  We chopped through Thursday before sellers stepped in again Friday.  The NASDAQ showed slight signs of bullish divergence along the way.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap down and slight push lower before responsive buyers stepped in and took the market range extension up.  Said buyers could not reclaim the Wednesday/Thursday balance, instead initiative sellers (initiative relative to Thursday close, responsive relative to Friday open) stepped in and eventually worked price range extension down.  We ended the day on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open and trade up through overnight high 7126.75.  Sellers reject a move back into Friday’s range 7129.25 (resisting up to 7140) and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7066.75 setting up a move to close the 03/08 open gap at 7053.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers regain Friday range and sustain trade above 7140 setting up a move to 7169.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

How very nice of May to end on a Friday, capping off the quarter very cleanly.

Bears really cut loose on equities last week after sort of just playing with their food for most of the month.

The model lads, the one that guides every decision I make, is signalling BUNKER BUSTER.  This signal calls for an acceleration to the downside followed by a sharp formation of an excess low—a low that holds for many many weeks.

This one maybe hold for all of June, once it comes.

The last set of Bunker Busters hit on 12/9 and 12/23 of 2018.  I think we all remember how that played out ::insert gif of The Rock rolling eyes::

I made a promise to myself that I would not attempt to trade the Bunker Buster after the last one was too darn stressful.  Instead I will begin an accumulation campaign that will likely continue throughout the entire month of June.

Starting with the rebalance of my motif quant and an allotment to that scheme.  Also I will likely buy more of the best companies: TSLA, TWTR, WMT, MTCH first then maybe dribble down to AMZN and GOOGL if I’m not completely cash poor.

People talk about their fad diets and how they’ve sheathed off 20 pounds in a flash.  I find it vile and impulsive.  If you want to be lean buy five to twenty acres of land and work it until your legs give out.  Pair that with a commitment to long term investment strategies and you have the recipe for starvation and nice, tight muscles.

I came into the end of Q1 real lean.  I’ve grinded through Q2 on a war path. And now it is June, and everyone knows June is RAUL’S MONTH.

Raul Santos, June 2nd, 2019

Exodus members, the 237th edition of Strategy Session is live.  This is a key report make sure you give it a read.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, briefly trading below Friday’s low before coming into balance.  as we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, 6-month T-bill and 2-year Note auctions at 11:30am, and 3-month T-bill and 5-year Note auctions at 1pm.

Last week featured methodical, almost programmic selling early in the week.  Several major indices closed their 05/13 open gap nearly to the tick before reversing higher late in the week.  NASDAQ came under the most selling pressure while the Dow demonstrated relative strength.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up above Thursday’s range.  An early attempt higher discovered responsive sellers inside last Monday’s range.  Said sellers reclaimed the Thursday range and made short work of closing the overnight gap before price worked back up to kiss the midpoint, find initiative sellers, and we eventually closed back down at low-of-day, right near the Thursday close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7315.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7291.25.  Look for buyers just below here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7266.75.  Look for buyers down at 7242 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7354.75 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to tag the 7400 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Summer officially hit the north last Thursday.  It greeted us with a sunrise thunderstorm featuring long and ominous rumbles interspersed by quick flashes of light that would make a more primitive man think he’d upset the gods.

I’ve spent part of the Memorial weekend taking a walk through the underbelly of Detroit, dancing with the freaks and outcasts in a swampy pit underneath the train tracks.  I’ve seen real happiness, and much to the surprise of most, it doesn’t require exchanging little green pieces of paper for shiny things.  Often, at least here, it can be achieved by listening to loud, repetitive music that sounds quite like an assembly line.

It has always seemed like robotics have a way of hypnotizing man.  They offer relief from monotony, but at what price?  Less and less ‘work’ to sustain is done by hand, and we’re left with a growing population of disenfranchised shitposters lingering around on Facebook and 4chan sharing racist memes.  These people need to be kept busy, hypnotized, sat in front of a machine for eight hours (with a one hour union break) then sent to a home where nature is constantly attempting to overtake them.

The suburban yard is a menacing beast if left untamed.  The bloody grass can grow nearly a foot a week and since none of us keep livestock, this property is a useless and high maintenence ornament.

There’s a subculture taking shape right now in Detroit, in areas still forgotten by the financiers and their banker money.  A place where nobody is plopping ‘modern’ condominiums. I hope these pirates manage to claim a decent chunk of property before its all made to look like suburban hell, what with the bleak strip malls and big box retailers.

The king of Detroit real estate had a stroke Sunday morning.  There is uncertainty in the air.  I do wish him health and safety and hope he makes a full recovery.  But the shark in me also senses change in the air.  If not an objective opportunist, then what good is it that I spend every day sharpening my speculative knife?  I intend to gain as much wealth as possible during my brief stay in this sack of mortal fluid on a rock orbiting an old star.  Real wealth.  Land. Machinery.  By means of capital gains and providing liquidity to the NASDAQ 100.

As for the markets, I expect buyers to engage early on then more chop into month-end.  Then it’s June, and as we all know, June is RAUL’S MONTH.

Now I am off to dance to loud repetitive techno beats for 12 hours.  Check out my instragram for some looks along the way @vincalim.

Exodus members, the 236th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price made a unidirectional move lower overnight, dropping and accelerating down through the week’s lows.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the open gap left behind on Monday, May 13th.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down out of range that buyers quickly bid up at the open.  Buying continued through the early morning, closing the overnight gap before sellers stepped in and formed a sharp excess high.  This led to us going range extension down ahead of the FOMC minutes.  At 2pm the minutes came out and buyers stepped back in but were eventually overrun again by selling late in the session.  The day ended with price in the lower quadrant of the day’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 7400.  Look for sellers up at 7407 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7428.25 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7434.75.  Look for sellers up at 7444 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7316 to tag the 7300 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7272 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the Monday high before coming into balance.  Then around 5am price traded up through the Monday high again.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down into the week (just like the prior two weeks).  And early drive lower discovered a responsive bid and we spent the rest of the morning auctioning higher.  The daily mid held as support for most of the day until late-day selling pressured the tape back down near the lows.  Sellers were unable to press the market neutral.  Instead we ramped back to the midpoint into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7467.75 setting up a move to target the Friday gap at 7511.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to the naked VPOC at 7571 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7392.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7385.25.  Look for buyers down at 7334 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: