iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

NASDAQ slight gap up into 9/11 anniversary, here’s the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, tradig up above the Monday midpoint before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Sellers drove price down to a new two-day low, probing into the top-side of a multi-week range that price broke away from last Thursday after President Donald Trump tweeted something positive regarding tariff talks between U.S. and China, saying they would resume in October.  Buyers stepped in ahead of the rally point and began working price higher, eventually reclaiming the midpoint by New York lunch and rallying up and away from it to go range extension up.  A retracement to the mid was defended by buyers who eventually ramped price back to the daily high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7847.50.  Look for sellers just above at 7849.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7815.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7786.50.  Look for buyers down at 7800 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7850 setting up a move to tag 7879 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ a tad lower heading into Tuesday, here’s the morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down through the Monday low briefly before consolidating inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along Monday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved lower.  Price stabilized along the unchanged line for a bit before buyers worked price back up near the opening prints.  Buyers held the high line until about New York lunch when sellers pressed us range extension down.  Selling pressure persisted throughout the afternoon until we ramped back up to the daily midpoint late in the day.   Value never shifted lower despite us spending more time near the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7830.75.  From here we continue higher, up to 7848.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7781.75 then tag 7741.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers ‘check back’ to the scene of the tariff talk rally, trading down to 7719.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

Volatility recedes, slow news week ahead, here’s the Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on extreme volume.  Price worked slightly higher overnight in a balanced manner, slowly working up through the Thursday/Friday high before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right at Friday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week was shortened Monday, with U.S. markets closed in observation of Labor Day.  We came into Tuesday with a gap down and saw selling pressure through late Tuesday when responsive bidders began to show up.  We went gap up into Wednesday and Thursday before finding responsive sellers, then we consolidated along these highs into the weekend.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  The day began with a slight gap up that sellers worked into then continued pressing lower until about the Thursday midpoint.  Then we came into balance before a spike lower down off the daily midpoint around 1pm pushed us range extension down.  This move formed a sharp excess low, and eventually, late in the session price worked range extension up, putting us into a neutral print.  The day ended with a fade back down to the midpoint.

Super clean neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7887 setting up a move to tag 7900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7857.75 before continuing lower, down through overnight low 7850.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down through overnight low 7850.50 and sustain trade below here, setting up a move to target 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

IndexModel updated, still bullish

Greetings and good morning to the Humble Raul Blog readership!

I was on the road until late Sunday night, traversing from top-left to bottom right of the murder mitten, and I was unable to muster the strength to prepare an Exodus Strategy Session last night.  Therefore I adjusted my normal casual 8:15 or so wake up time to a more draconian 7am and powered through the weekend research.  It sometimes takes me four hours to prepare the weekend research, but after a long rest and before being bogged down since everyone already used up all the good thoughts of the day I was able to produce the report in record time.  I also had some real clarity the whole way through.

Anyhow I feel ready for the week.  Now I need to feel ready for Monday so I am hopping into a morning trading report.

Hope everyone is adjusting to the transition into autumn well.  Let’s have a strong-beard week.

Raul Santos, September 9th 2019

Exodus members, the 251st edition of Strategy Session is live.  Those NASDAQ Transportation Index moves were THE TELL last week, and it looks like they may be again this week, be sure to check out section IV.  And don’t forget that this Thursday/Friday is an index rollforward—a time rife with fuckery.  Stay sharp into the second half of the week.

Comments »

Pivotal session alert: NASDAQ set to open above multi-week range after renewed trade negotiation hopes overnight, here’s the plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, drifting above the Wednesday high during the early evening hours before spiking higher around 9:30pm New York on news that the U.S. and China agreed to return to trade talks in October.  The news sent the NASDAQ higher, trading up into the lower quadrant of the August first range before finding sellers and coming into balance.  At 8:15am ADP employment change data came out better-than-expected.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the August first range, with price up beyond a choppy trading range the NASDAQ has been inside of since August second.

Pro gap up because we are entering the day out of intermediate-term balance.

Also on the economic calendar today we have factory/durable goods orders at 10am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up that nearly resembled a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up beyond the Tuesday high.  During a two-way open auction that first attempted higher, then began to work lower, sellers were campaigning back down into the Tuesday range before the auction completely stalled and reversed ahead of 10:30am.  Buyers had a slight battle at the daily midpoint before spending the rest of the day campaigning higher, ultimately ending the day near session high and in the upper quadrant of last Thursday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade down to the 7800 century mark.  Buyers step in here and work up through overnight high 7839.75.  Look for sellers up at 7842 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers drive higher off the open, taking out 7842 then sustaining trade above 7853 to set up a move to target 7900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers reverse the overnight news driven move, closing the overnight gap down to 7722.50 then continuing down through overnight low 7717.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ enters holiday-shortened week in balance with a tasty little overnight gap

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the gap zone left behind last Thursday.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of last Friday’s low-end of the range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a slight gap up into Monday then we marked time through Wednesday.  A big gap up Thursday was bought into, and we spent Friday accepting those higher prices.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down, nearly a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up to a new 5-day high.  Sellers stepped in and drove price lower off the open, continuing to drive lower until about 11:30am when we briefly traded below the Thursday low.  This move discovered responsive buyers and we spent the rest of the session marking time, eventually ramping back up to the daily midpoint near the close.

On Monday U.S. markets were closed in observation of Labor Day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7675.75.  From here we continue higher, up to 7697.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7700 setting up a move to target 7764.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 7593.25 setting up a move to tag 7552 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

September is here, steady now

Lots of moving parts going into September, but mostly it means send the kids back to school.  The farmers are preparing to harvest corn and soybeans.  Wall Streeters hunker back down on their desks and focus back on attaining year-end goals.

I’ve always been fond of August for being the easiest month of the year to out-work and out-hustle just about everyone.  My competitors loaf around on boats and beaches then ship out to Burning Man for a week.  Meanwhile I toil away, building, planning, executing.  Sure, I went up to the north shore of Lake Superior for a few days, but I had my chief scientist Mr. Laser along with me and we were meditating on our next move.  There is no such thing as vacation for your old pal Raul.  I’m so far down the rabbit hole I’ve become unemployable, and if I don’t stay a few steps ahead of the competition I’m likely to end up a Total Vagrant, cavorting around the americas in a van, eating canned fish and pickles.

But I am committed. In fact just today I completed my 250th edition of Exodus Strategy Session.  I always find a way to complete this report no matter the circumstances.  I’ve used strangers computers to gain access to MotherShip despite being high in the mountains, to ensure I’ve wrapped our minds around the latest happenings of the equity markets.  Without the report, I was a lesser trader.  When a certain chess loving wine-o up and formed a mutiny 250 weeks ago, I reluctantly filled his shoes.  It was painful at first, after all I had quit my comfy corporate job because I couldn’t take being confined to someone else’s schedule.

I rebuilt the report to suit my style of trading—scalping market profile levels, working overnight gap fills, and scalping daily midpoints.  At some point, the added conviction gained by doing a big chunk of Sunday research started to pay off big time, completely changing the trajectory of my equity curve for the better.  And I have been hooked on producing the report ever since.

There have been many other endeavors that have started off the same way, as a reluctant habit/task at first before becoming an addiction.  The key is choosing them wisely.  There is no sense forging ahead with a task you don’t want to do if the actions aren’t justified by your goals.  It isn’t like someone is coming along to relive you of your duty.  Either the work will be done or it won’t.

Anyways, September is here and I intend to extract many fiat american dollars from the global equity complex.  Said dollars will be converted into durable goods like greenhouses and concrete as I continue to build a secret compound as far north as my constitution will allow, far from the malaise of suburbia.  Said dollars will also be converted into cold storage bitcoin which will be accumulated ahead of the (likely) move away from nation states to a dystopian corporate global model.

As always, we’ll be taking it one week and then one day at a time.  Thanks for stopping by.  Oh and Happy Labor Day to all the lazy americans, back to work!

Raul Santos, September 1st, 2019

Exodus members, the 250th edition of Strategy Session is live, you HAVE to see what the recent data prints inside Exodus are suggesting, and also the major development over on the NASDAQ Transportation Index.  Go check it out and let me know what you think!

 

Comments »

NASDAQ coming into mid-week trade down -20, here’s the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and range.  The volume these past few weeks in Globex has been at a sustained extreme level unlike any volume we have seen in the last few years.  Price was balanced for most of the night, chopping along the bottom-side of Tuesday’s midpoint before selling off.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above Tuesday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It nearly resembled a double distribution down, and that is okay.  We use these labels to gain a sense of the action but markets will not always fit cleanly into the definitions.  It was between the two, and slightly bearish.  Price began the day gap up, up beyond Monday’s high and into the single prints left behind last Friday when news hit Twitter that tariff talks had broken down between U.S. and China.  The morning auction made an attempt higher but was met with responsive selling, and the morning two way auction eventually gave way to selling.  Sellers worked an overnight gap fill and continued rotating price lower through lunch before discovering a responsive bid around 1:15pm New York.  Buyers stepped in near Monday’s mid-point and worked price back up to the daily mid.  We ended the session chopping along the bottom-side of the mid with sellers rejecting moves above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7563.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7600.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7600 setting up a secondary move up to 7670 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down and out of the Tuesday low 7537 and take out overnight low 7521.75.  Look for a buyers down at 7500 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

Potential pole climb underway, here’s the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on extreme range.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the high print from early Monday morning (globex) and well up into the Friday afternoon ‘tariff talk’ (tweet) induced sell-off.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by a 2-year note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that saw price open just below last Friday’s midpoint.  Sellers worked into the overnight inventory and nearly closed the overnight gap, the market reversed 2.5 points ahead of the gap fill and began to auction higher.  In a product as slippery as the NASDAQ, in these volatile conditions, I consider this a gap fill.  Price then worked to range extension up before settling along the midpoint for most of the day.  There was a late session ramp higher.

Heading into today, price is lingering into some single prints on the next profile to the left, these are pole climb conditions.  Look for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7670 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7670 and continue the pole climb all the way up to 7734.50.  Look for sellers up at 7750 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers defend their news driven reaction from last Friday, pressing into the overnight inventory and closing the gap down to 7555.25 before continuing lower, down through overnight low 7547.75.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures take out August low before rising to a quick +60, here’s the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume, both are well beyond third sigma.  At the forefront of volatility is ongoing tariff discussions between China and U.S., with today’s talking point being President Donald Trump saying China called and asked to restart talks.  Price was careening lower Sunday evening and briefly exceeded the August cash low before finding responsive bidders and reversing higher.  The rally that followed briefly took price up beyond the Friday midpoint before settling into a choppy balance along the Friday mid.  At 8:30am durable goods orders came in stronger-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week U.S. equity markets began with a gap up and small rally before chopping sideways through Friday morning.   Late Friday morning tarrif talk introduced heavy selling into the market and we went trend down into the weekend, across the board.  The last-week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down near the Thursday low.  Buyers resolved the overnight gap and poked just beyond the Thursday mid before sellers took control of the tape.  Price never went range extension up.  Instead the morning gap fill trade was taken back and then price accelerated to the downside before settling into a methodical rotation lower.  Late into settlement a bit of a ramp higher occurred.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7508.  Buyers defend the 7500 century mark and we begin auctioning higher, eventually taking out overnight high 7626.  Look for sellers up at 7670 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go higher, trade up to 7700 and sustain trade near hear, extended target is 7750.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap then continue lower, down through overnight low 7353.25.  Look for buyers just below at 7346 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »