iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,085 Blog Posts

Phoned in another model update

Listen lads, it is finally summer up here in the murder mitten and it has all the trimming of a maddening one.  There has been a major uptick in the amount of neck tattoos listlessly wandering through Trump county, their brain tissues inflamed by the same histamines responsible for their itchy noses and bloodshot eyes.  They pose little risk, inebriated by the oppressive sun heat and their own choices, they’re just a clear indication it’s summer in July.

There was a hostage situation a few blocks down from Mothership, with some crazed lunatic locking himself and ‘lover’ in his basement, barricaded in with a wide array of assault weapons.  Again, not caring so much, more signs of the summer.

Up north word got out through various social media channels that the place to inebriate was a small state park beach in an otherwise hokey small town.  Authorities in the area claimed they’ve never seen anything like it, youths  by the 100s descending like gulls, beer bongs and injection needles in tote.  The beach was eventually shut down, and as the police chased away the flock, an image emerged of a wonderfully bleak field of unconscious party fiends littered across the sand—some from opiates others from chaotic brawling.  I really do not care, these are all signs of summer up here in the murder mitten.

I took solace in the city, which has been receiving isolated rainstorms.  The usual crazies haven’t been filing into their desk jobs.  The highways are nearly empty.  The sidewalks don’t have their usual confetti of adderall pills and extinguished cigarettes.  I’d imagine most of those loons took time away from the mortgage servicing complex to go up north.  Only the hardened locals are left; calmer loons, content with the groceried-cart lifestyle.

From my small garden oasis it all seems rather meaningless, except a few things:

  • the urgency to acquire gratuitous sums of wealth via independent pursuit
  • placing two middle fingers firmly in the faces of outside investors/vultures
  • keeping my best cards in my own hand
  • playing them when the time is right
  • spinning all these plates while I dig holes

On Monday, the quant strategy I use to diversify fiat american dollars into stocks made its quarterly adjustment.  It picked ridiculous stocks. I’m hands off, stock picking is a robots job, not mine. I can only pick real investments like TSLA or TWTR or MTCH, and build massive 10-year holds, but quarterly stock picking?  Or even shorter time frames? For the robots.  Are you a simulation or a human?  What makes you so sure?  Even if I wanted to pick stocks, I don’t have the mental bandwidth right now, it’s hotter than Haiti, and I am busy playing offense while all these jacked asses fart around on pontoon boats.

The roaring ’20s kicks off in six short months.  Will you let your little start-up project sit on the back burner until then?  Back to work.

RAUL SANTOS, July 7th, 2019

Exodus members, the 242nd edition of strategy session is live.  Semiconductors are starting to tell a story here, see Section IV.  At a minimum, log in and read the executive summary so this week’s events don’t catch you flat footed.

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Prices stabilize into ID4 Tuesday, here is the NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price was balanced overnight, trading inside Monday’s lower quad for the entire globex session.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in said lower quad.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a pro gap up to levels unseen since May 3rd.  After a brief open two-way auction sellers stepped in and began working price lower.  There was some chop and balance before New York lunch before sellers worked a second rotation lower.  Buyers stepped in late in the session, near last week’s high print, and we ramped nearly back to the daily midpoint by end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7791.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7799.50.  Look for sellers up at 7810 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up through Monday high 7849.75 setting up a move to target 7887.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7763 setting up a move to target 7737.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ gap up into July, near highs, here’s the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the new week/month/quarter gap up after an overnight session featuring its own gap up, then elevated range on extreme volume.  Price chopped along overnight until about 8pm New York when it attempted to press down into the gap up that occurred when globex opened for trade at 6pm.  Buyers rejected the move and price worked up beyond the initial chop.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near globex highs, trading inside the 05/03 range, just about 30 points off of record highs.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing/employment along with construction spending at 10am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was mostly a sideways drift.  Monday was flat, Tuesday saw strong selling but no follow through for the rest of the week.  Instead we marked time by trading inside the Tuesday range, going sideways for the rest of the week.  The Russell demonstrated relative strength throughout the balance.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that was sold into.  Buyers showed up just below the Thursday low, before sellers could press range extension down, and price rallied to back near the highs.  We did not go range extension up however until the final moments of the session when a strong ramp took prices to a 3-day high as we ended the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, closing the open gap up at 7865 then continuing higher to tag 7888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 7772.75 setting up a move to target 7759.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on trend up.  Trade up through 7888 and sustain trade above it, setting up an exploration of open air.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Independence Day vibe is bullish and lazy

I have been slacking on my market research routines and this is not something I want to get into the habit of doing.  The Sunday research I began 241 weeks ago elevated my trading.  The morning trading reports have always been my rock, even in the most uncertain times.

This week starts with a Monday the first day of a new quarter.  That means I will be making an adjustment to the quant system I run using Exodus and Motif.  Then I will likely be taking the rest of the week easy.

I’ve been all around this great big world and there are few places more enjoyable than Michigan these next few weeks.  It is real hot, not that California pleasant heat but real, oppressive temperatures.  There are freshwater rivers and lakes everywhere.  Spirits are high.  Therefore as important as it is to not become lazy with my research, I can also avoid error by simply not trading.

The market will still be here when I dial back in, just like it was here long before and will be here long after.  Cheers to free market capitalism.  It is the only ethos worth acknowledging.

Now I must be going, a good friend’s birthing day party is about to kick off at a nearby swimming pool.

ciao ciao and kiss kiss

-Raul Santos, June 30th, 2019

Exodus members, the 241st edition of Strategy Session is live.

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5am spike recovers half of Tuesday’s sell-off, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the overnight session, chopping along the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range before spiking higher around 5am.  The spike discovered sellers around Tuesday’s midpoint and as we approach cash open price is hovering below the Tuesday mid.  At 8:30am durable goods and advance goods trade balance data came out  _____________.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  The selling slowed briefly after closing the 06/19 open gap but continued to trend lower until about 3pm.  We spent the rest of the day chopping along the low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7629.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7616.25 setting up a move to tag the 7600 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7576 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 7698 to tag the 7700 century mark.  Look for sellers up at 7734 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7561.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summer balance, here’s the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly poking up beyond the Monday high.  The selling pressure took prices down near last Thursday’s low but was unable to probe beyond the Thursday low before coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, also Fed Chairman Powell talking economic outlook and policy at 1pm at the same time as a 2-year note auction.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down, barely.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved.  The rest of the day was spent chopping in a tight balance.  Very late in the session we went range extension down by one tick.  This is the ‘barely’ that made it a normal variation down instead of the uncommon ‘normal’ day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to regain the Monday range and close the gap up to 7759.50,  From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 7779.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers reject price down and away from Monday low 7749.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7714.25.  Look for buyers down at the 7700 century mark and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summer is finally here, sweet summer hallelujah, models are bullish again

That Bunker Buster signal on 06/02 was really something, wasn’t it?  Paired with an Exodus Hybrid Oversold that fired that Friday before the weekend, and we had double the reason to wake up Monday morning, huevos swinging low as we came to market and bought equities.

That bearish signal last Sunday was not the same.  It was like, “Really IndexModel?  Your robot brain thinks it’s a good idea to short here, just a few bull thrusts away from all-time highs, in the wake of a Bunker Buster no less?”  I began shorting /nq_f late Monday and actually saw some traction.  I positioned into SQQQ.  It was maybe looking like an okay move, given the mid-week Federal Reserve wild card.

There was a clear third reaction up to the Fed actions and it was then that I abandoned my short selling campaign, leaving only SQQQ to ride because that is how I trade IndexModel.  It is a five day commitment.  I only tweet when neccecary and third reaction almost always earns a tweet:

But given the CONTEXT, you know, summer time, third reaction up, bunker buster a few weeks ago, hovering near record highs, I didn’t waste my time in front of the computer, shorting the nq_f.

Context was a missing link to my success as a trader for a long time.  All the mentors I found and paid good money to for help could not properly use their words to describe what context was.  They kept it down in their gut or something I don’t know.

Anyways I did my best to quantify context and every.single.day. I do my best to use my words, here in the sacred halls of iBankCoin and on Twitter to call out context.

That’s all I have to say about that.  Models are back to bullish and there is an island in Detroit calling my name.  Enjoy the first day of summer fam, for tomorrow we go back to pulling fiat out of the financial system.

Raul Santos, June 23rd, 2019

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Bulls in charge heading into Fed meeting, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price marked time overnight, bobbing along the Tuesday midpoint for the duration of Globex.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by the FOMC rate decision at 2pm which will be followed at 2:30pm with a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell.  Investors down at the Chicago Mercantile are currently placing 24.2% odds of a 25 basis points rate hike.  This is a live meeting.

Yesterday we printed normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and after a brief opening two-way auction buyers drove higher.  Price rallied up into the 05/07 range, a day which marked the breakdown from a multi-day consolidation up near record highs.  The 05/08 open gap was closed along the way.  By late morning responsive sellers were discovered and we worked back down to the daily midpoint.  We spent the rest of the day marking time along the mid, eventually closing right on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 7691 and sustain trade above it, setting up a test up through Tuesday high 7721.75.  There’s open air until 7800 but look for sellers at 7750 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7663 triggering a liquidation down through the Tuesday low 7625.25.  Look for buyers down at 7611.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 short squeeze ahead of the Fed.  Buyers fully traverse the air gap, tagging 7800 before the meeting.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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I haven’t shorted the NASDAQ yet, here’s the Monday afternoon trading plan

I was just-on-time sitting down at my trading terminal, only I forgot I had to reboot and load September contract onto my charts.

Then sellers didn’t show up and drive lower off the open, so I knew I had time to do a morning lap around town, handling a variety of municipal matters before traffic ticked up.  It also offered me a solid distraction instead of engaging the short side of the tape Monday morning after two weeks of bullish action.

However, as anyone who read last Sunday’s strategy session knows, IndexModel signaled Rose Colored Sunglasses, which is a bearish bias.  Per the rules of my trading plan, I am only allowed to trade the short side of $nq_f and at some point, ideally before the FOMC press conference, initiate a position in SQQQ, effectively making a leveraged bet against the stock market.

I was feeling a bit anxious to sit down and tease apart the market profiles going back to late-April, which was the last time we were up hear near all-time highs.  “All-time highs,” that’s also a phrase [fact] that is not so bearish.

But the system is the system is the system and by golly if it signals Rose Colored Sunglasses, then I need to find good places to start working the short side of this tape.  Splitting the profiles to find key working levels, preparing a few hypothetical scenarios, and reviewing the latest information coming out of the stock market is like taking an animal tranquilizer.  As I worked through the charts, I felt my breath starting to slow, now I am writing an afternoon plan, soon it will be time to focus back on the task at hand.

Raul Santos, June 17th, 2019

________________

NASDAQ future came into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume (note: volume metrics are skewed this week, as some active traders are still trading the June contract, despite the majority moving to September).  Price was balanced overnight, forming a tight distribution along last Friday’s high.  As we  approached cash open price was hovering along Friday’s high.

After a brief, two-way open auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher, trading up through last Thursday’s high.  At 10am NAHB hosing market index data came out below expectations.  Buyers worked a bit higher, taking $nq_f range extension up before finding a responsive bid near last Wednesday’s upper quadrant.

At 11:30am 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions took place.  Some selling pressure occurred around that time, but buyers became initiative up ahead of the daily midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week markets came gap up into Monday then spent the rest of the week in a volatile chop.  The Russell demonstrated divergent strength throughout the week, a signal of healthy risk tolerance.  The last week performance of every major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and after a brief two way auction buyers stepped in.  They were unable to reclaim the Thursday low.  Instead we spent the most of the session chopping along the low.  There was a late-day ramp, but it was sold back down to the midpoint before cash markets closed for the weekend.

Heading into this afternoon, my primary expectation is for buyers to make a new high of day, taking out 7577.50 to set up a move to target 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work price down to the daily midpoint 7548, buyers defend here and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through daily mid 7548, setting up a move to target 7500 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sometimes the systems are dialed in just right

A few years ago I had to be honest with the information I was receiving in the form of huge losses trading stock options.  I wasn’t able to stick to my system.  I didn’t lacked the mental fortitude to wake up five days a week with 15 cannons pointed at me ready to blow of the hands, feet, and groin of my trading account.  I have nothing against option traders, but I learned that my skill set is not suited for a system that only wins 10-20% of the time.

I went back into the lab, looked at which trades I did best, and tripled-down on the process of doing those trades well.  I also went to work establishing other forms of cash flow outside of trading.  Then I carefully pressed weights up-and-down for four years, and weeded gardens, and dug lots of holes, and wheelbarrow-d sand around like an immigrant.

Anyways, last week I booked about equal the gains as I’ve had so far in all of 2019 combined, effectively doubling my profits for the year.  Basically I waited six months for the proverbial deck to stack and then aggressively executed my trades.

I superimposed the last two executive summaries from the Sunday Strategy Session onto this chart.  Each forecasted five day’s worth of price action with uncanny accuracy:

There are a handful of people who use Exodus every day to enhance their approach to investing and trading.  The rest of the subscribers are wanton degenerates, ferreting about our tool shed with no intent.  I’d like to see all these jokers leave and never come back.  They don’t have the right ingredients to be a trader.

The only difference between both types of Exodus subs and yours truly, is I am trading better than all of you, all whilst putting on a live seminar on the art of trading.

If you want an internet sewing circle to sit around all day and gossip about the latest news bit, go tweet—daddy needs Twitter’s users active.  My massive TWTR holding needs to hit all-time high or zero so I can move on with my life.

As for Exodus, I’d like to see it populated only by ruthless traders, scoundrels who would just as soon pluck my eyeballs out if given the chance.  People with no sworn allegiance, dead-set on pirating about the financial markets capturing fiat american dollars, gyarr.

That’s all I have to say about any of this except for one more thing:

June is RAUL’S MONTH.

 

-Raul Santos, June 16th 2019

Exodus members, the 239th edition of Strategy Session will be live in about two hours (around 2pm New York).  I haven’t written it yet, so I do not know which section will be most interesting.  Bonus points if you go back to the 06/10-06/14 report and revisit the talk about NASDAQ transports.  They were THE TELL to hold on during last week’s little selling bout.  Had you, for whatever reason, been sweating the mid-week selling, this contextual piece could have provided you solace.  Instead of seeking it from another person, like a mentor or Elon Musk aka DAD.

PS – “Happy Father’s Day”

 

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