NASDAQ up a quick +90 into OPEX week, here is the Monday the 13th trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up, up a quick +100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price has been steadily ascending overnight, despite a bit of back-and-forth when the market tagged the 10,900 level. As we approach cash open, price is hovering at all-time highs, above 10,900.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a look at the Treasury budget at 2pm.

Last week started out gap up also. The NASDAQ took the gap up and ran with it, while the other major indices consolidated sideways through time. All major indices rallied into the weekend, with several ending on the weekly high. The Russell lagged behind. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with with a slight gap up followed by an open-drive down. Before the first hour was complete responsive buyers were on the scene, forming a sharp excess low along the Thursday midpoint. The rest of the session was spent campaigning higher—working up to a new weekly high by mid afternoon before ramping into unexplored heights into closing bell. We closed on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 11,043.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,838.25. Sellers continue lower, trading down through overnight low 10,834.50. Look for buyers down at 10,775 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Last week my brain really went wild. You know, the initial jolt of covid-19 shutting down the economy came right after I spent a month living in an RV out west, snowboarding and climbing some of the highest mountains in North America. I went from one exciting thing into another. I was helping so many people these last few months transition into the work-from-home life. It felt like I was accomplishing so much. A virus had suddenly validated a way of life I knew to be better a decade ago. Then the excitement tapered off.

So I got all keyed up on planting food. I frantically hurried to prepare my gardens for the hundreds of seeds I’d purchased. I helped others plant their crops. It was a huge work load and kept me excited. Then the excitement tapered off. The irrigation is keeping everything growing and the nutrient feedings are once a week.

Then George Floyd was assassinated by cops. I have never liked cops. Cops in Detroit rarely help a situation. Okay sometimes they certainly do, and I appreciate them to an extent. Most of the time they show up after the crimes, bag up the body and start asking all sorts of questions that make civilians feel at risk of being incarcerated. Fucking acting tough when we can all tell they’re really the douche bags from high school who couldn’t just vibe and enjoy life. Power hungry beta cuckolds who couldn’t figure out how to be cool. The video of George Floyd’s murder sparked a rage and served as an urgent catalyst to reignite the ever important civil rights movement. This is ongoing, and while I continue to participate in the peaceful marches in our town and find more ways to be an ally to the black community, the initial rush of emotions has abated.

Suddenly my mind was without any stimuli strong enough to spark up my nucleus accumbens. I spent like way too much time on Twitter last week trying to feed my addictive personality. Finally, after a week of these little errors, wasting time on Twitter or Facebook or whatever, I made a big mistake.

I sold off a portion of my Tesla investment.

Fuck.

To fill the void I bought the following items:

• Bitcoin and bitcoin SV
• New sunglasses
• Added to my FB investment
• Three new bathing suits and a psychedelically printed swim cap
• A bunch of birthday presents for my nephew
• Three Pendelton blankets
• Anthropology sheets
• Head and foot boards for my heckin’ bed

There still is a bunch of fiat left that I am earmarking for a kitchen remodel and greenhouse purchase later on this summer.

I shouldn’t have sold TSLA. None of these things will fill the void left behind from shedding 1/3rd of my position. TSLA shares were up +10% the very next day.

Anyhow, I woke up early this morning, did some reading, had coffee with my special lady friend, then sat down and did my Sunday research. It is time to lay off the brain junk food and focus back on extracting fiat american dollars from the global equity complex. I have one job.

Models are bullish heading into next week and I wish you all a prosperous week of industry and trade.

Cheers and salute.

Raul Santos, July 12th, 2020

Exodus members, the 294th edition of Strategy Session is live. Check out the updated NASDAQ transportation index chart. That contextual index will likely tell the story next week, even while everyone else is focusing on bank earnings.

There isn’t much work for me to do when the NASDAQ is up a record highs so let us analyze something else. ‘I feel threatened’ guy is a video that went viral last Tuesday. It features a man (his name doesn’t matter) at a Costco in Florida, who has a complete breakdown and acts like an upset baby. This guy really cracked me up. If you haven’t seen the video yet, here it is:

THIS MAN HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED, FIRED FROM HIS CORPORATE INSURANCE JOB, AND TWITTER TROLLS HAVE RUINED HIS LIFEpic.twitter.com/gE4q0X6fiw

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 7, 2020

If you aren’t following @The_Real_Fly aka my boss aka Senor Tropicana on Twitter, you are missing out on some of the best news curation on the web.

My first instinct was the condemn the man’s behavior, but after analyzing the situation a bit more, and adding a few layers of context, he’s actually quite adorable (if only terribly misguided). I am going to break down exactly what is going on here and why we all should have a bit of empathy for this sad, sad man.

He is losing his hair. Now before you shame me for judging his appearance I’ll admit that my hairline is not what it used to be. When I was a swarthy young lad it was coarse and robust and nearly met my eyebrows. At 35, it has moved higher and my widow’s peak is sharp and quite sinister. I can relate to how upsetting this can be. The world by-and-large favors humans with hairy heads. Doors swing wide open when a nice hair doo approaches. It can be a challenge to accept being dealt inferior hair genetics. It can make people sad and want to cry like a baby. This particular fella even resembles the popular determined baby meme which is a whole other layer of silly appearance. See below:

The angry white man, by and large, is being excommunicated from American pop and business culture. This can feel like a major threat, when nobody wants to engage with you professionally or socially. It can make you feel like you’re cornered. This is an unsettling position to be in. Unfortunately for angry white men, they in fact are running out of options. They can choose to change—read some books, keep a gratitude diary, meditate A LOT, do a few thousand hours of community service, seek professional therapy—or they can double down on their grumpy frumpy ways. They may find some marginalized group of fellow angry men to cavort around with. Maybe they can form a motorcycle club and jack each other off but options for reintegration into modern progressive society are limited. The ‘I feel threatened’ guys of America have much work to do if they are to be accepted.

Grocery stores are stressful and babies get a free pass to scream and wale their way through. Is it fair to empathize with a small baby who is overwhelmed with dread while inside these giant metal sensory overload boxes and not do that same for an upset little man? I’ve seen it a thousand times. A baby is crying like a demon. All the woman give it this look. It’s like the women’s eyes turn into little upside down half moons and well up. They want to nurture the baby and make it to feel better. None of these woman want help RAUL remove the thick blanket of anxiety draped on his person at the shopping store. I am expected to handle my business in an orderly manner and be on my way. We all want to cry sometimes and that should be okay. Grocery stores need to do better. A start might be removing all the dead animals festooned into glass cases along the store perimeters. That suffering vibration is sad and affects us all.

Now I may be just a simple gardener and futures trader, but I regard my park bench psychological analysis and grasp of modern society to be decent. The ‘I feel threatened’ old boy needs help and deserves our empathy. He is pale, balding, he lives in Florida for fucked sake. The sun there is not kind to his skin. Plus that whole state is screwed up. Filled with crazy folks and corona viruses. We have to help him to understand that his type is no longer wanted in modern business or pop culture. We have to let him know we think it sucks too as men to dress ourselves and go shopping. Maybe we show him some of the latest styles from Tom Ford and help him cultivate some style. I mean, this stuff is hard without help. What is a man’s breaking point?

For more on this topic, of what can cause a man to snap and throw a baby-like fit, I suggest watching Jim Carry’s latest teevee show Kidding on Hulu. It is a wonderful deep dive into the psyche of a man pushed to the brink by external influence.

If you or someone you love finds themselves in the precarious position of being an angry white man, this quote from Marcus Aurelius might be the mantra to help apply the brakes. To stop and reassess before returning to action:

Objective judgement, now at this very moment

Unselfish action, now at this very moment

Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, for all external events

That is all you need

This was one of the hardest decisions of my life. I sold a third of my Tesla position. It is still my largest holding, but now much less ridiculous.

What a run.

Still bullish, but come’on. A boy has to sell once in a while.

Thank you Elon (Praise and Glory to The Leader).

I have no idea what to do with the proceeds. I am going to go pull weeds and think about it.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday down -40 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked to a new record high overnight before giving up a portion of the gains. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.\

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. Monday kicked off with a pro gap up followed by a test drive auction higher. The buying continued clean through the morning, stalling out just before New York lunch. Sellers retraced price back down to the midpoint before responsive buyers (responsive relative to the daily high, initiative relative to the Monday open) defended the mid and worked price higher. We ended the day near session high but did not make a new high during regular trading hours.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 10,600. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 10,664.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging 10,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 10,045.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Last week I wrote a doomsday piece, citing all the ways nature is playing a flexible defense against man. It was an entertainment of sorts, to fit with IndexModel signalling bunker buster into the holiday shortened week. Truthfully, I do not like selling stocks or hedging with a degenerate triple leverage inverse ETF or whatever. I don’t mind short selling index futures for a few minutes or hours, but multi-day bets against the stock market are not my thing.

It doesn’t suit me.

I like people. I am so freaking bullish on the economy it annoys my friends and associates. All the time people are heaping bad news upon my person, pointing to this-or-that current event as justification for their surly disposition. Negativity. Sofa king contagious.

2020 has been my year. I have been preparing for this big round calendar year for many years now….calling for a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen. It is happening. Semiconductors and automation and firms like Amazon are driving the change.

So what if climate change has us on a high speed train towards earthly extinction? Elon is building us a rocket ship off this lovely blue rock. You feel me? There are too many good people, people like Jack Dorsey, working on projects that will liberate and save man from its own nature. You cannot bet against humans, man.

But the system is the system is the system and by golly, if IndexModel calls for the short I take the heckin’ short. Then I come here, to public forum, and write a doomsday piece.

It’s that simple.

I hope, though I often doubt it when I see what type of “finance” personalities win the internet popularity contests, that even when my trades lose money, that I help you guys sharpen your own trading skills. That’s all I want. By sharing my research publicly, the goal is to keep accountability to my research and help cultivate a community or tribe or whatever of people having a healthy conversation about extracting fiat dollars out of the global equity complex.

I am not here to sell anyone diddly dick—not a chat room, or an alert service or any of that tips for trades bull shit. Fuck all of those busker acts. Information ought to be freely available.

YouTube has saved my ass so many times because someone, somewhere put up a video on how to fix this-or-that. The information was just out there, for free. All I had to do was properly query the Google.

That’s what it is all about. Building cool stuff like the Google to make brief mortal existences a little more chill.

All that said, and with Telsa trading at a cool 1,200 heading into the first full week of July, I am again bullish. So is IndexModel. Trade accordingly and cheers to your week.

Raul Santos, July 5th 2020

Exodus members, there is a note on this week’s strategy session regarding Bunker Buster. This has been a valuable signal, albeit a bit tricky to execute. Be sure to read my latest thoughts on it.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10am followed by FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a slight gap down that buyers quickly resolved with an open drive up. The drive continued all morning, tagging 10,100 before coming into balance for a bit. Then the trend resumed around 2:45pm, working higher into the bell and ending up in last Wednesday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap  up to 10,132.25. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 10,157.75. Look for sellers up at 10,200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 10,227.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 10,075. Look for buyers down at 10,056.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of the second quarter with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing up beyond the Monday high for most of Globex before using the 3:30am action to push slightly lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell giving testimony at 12:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a slight gap down then a test drive lower. Sellers probed down into the conviction buying zone established back on June 16th and discovered buyers who were defended the area. The tape was in buyer control for the majority of the day after that. At 3pm a small blip of selling took price off the highs, but ultimately it set up a strong ramp higher into the close. We closed at session highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9973.50. From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 10028.25 on our way to tagging 10,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 9920.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9827 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday shortened week with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. After kicking off Globex trade Sunday evening with a slight gap down, buyers quickly regained their footing and managed to slowly campaign price back into last Friday’s range. Since then we’ve been chopping along the lower quadrant of Friday’s range, marking time. As we approach cash open, price is hovering a few points above last Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a gap up that buyers took and ran with, rallying us clean through lunch Tuesday. From then onward sellers took control of the tape, eventually making new weekly lows across the board. We ended on the lows. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers were unable to resolve the overnight gap before an open test drive down took hold. Sellers quickly worked price down trough the Thursday low before discovering a responsive bid just below it. Said bid sent price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the midpoint and we drove lower again. There was one more upward rotation before price ultimately made new daily lows. We ended the week near the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 9781. This sets up a move down to 9724.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down through 9700 and sustain trade below it setting up a move down to 9630.25.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9866.75. From here they continue higher, up to 9900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

The physical body of homo sapiens has disgusted me for a long time. It’s the smell. Humans smell. They’re always shedding skin and hair. Spittle flies out of their mouths and noses when they undulate their throats and tongues to make cackling sounds they call talking. Many of them indiscriminately pollute nature with their litter and noise. All around, humans are nasty and I’ve avoided them for years. It is nice to see everyone else realize these facts now that nature has cast a viral pall over society. Mother nature is fighting back against the pestilent human population here on earth and I am here to root for her.

Nature has the heat on high and humans are growing weak and tired. It is so heckin’ hot out right now I could fry an egg on the mailbox. This type of heat does wonders for reducing the vigor of man. It is also idea conditions for the flesh eating, disease spreading cyclorrhapha. Last week they arrived en masse. These flies do not discriminate based on socioeconomic position or race. They will cause pestilence for all human creed.

Nature sent subtle warnings to those who listen. First came the black bloom, dramatic flowering of the hollyhocks. These blooms have preceded stock market weakness and other trouble two years in a row. They were the signal to go short the market and batten the hatches.

Then of course we have the novel corona virus. COVID-19. Much more efficient than sapiens. Lingering. Waiting for the ideal environment to spread like a wild fire.

Earthquakes. Little ones for now.

Locusts. A swarm of locusts overtook the town of Gurgaon. These types of massive attacks only happen every seventeen years or so.

All these natural facts, along with the less mystical, more cold and dead and objective statistics being generated by IndexModel have me feeling all sorts of bearish heading into “Independence Day”. We live in a real sick society. There are fringe groups of people who would just as quickly stone us into the ground as they would guzzel a bucket of soda pop and smash a flesh burger while driving a gigantic picked up truck.

My job is to stay cool and calm and healthy, then extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex. Said dollars will be converted into real assets as far north, and at as high an altitude as my constitution allows. Real assets like a seed bank, off-the-grid food storage, wells that can be hand pumped or powered by electric. Healthy soil development for growing enough food to survive without depending on the rickety supply chains. Solar panels and electric powered tools/machines that store the energy.

Models are signalling bunker buster into the holiday shortened week. This signal calls for an uptick in volatility, often featuring an acceleration of price to the downside.

Back to work.

Raul Santos, June 28th 2020

Exodus members, I laid out all the facts without all the doomsday guff in this week’s Strategy Session, the 292nd edition. Be sure to know where to find confirmation of the downside, and the key economic events to watch for a turning point.