Talking Price on Social Stocks

These notes are part of my risk management and my assessment of price action.  This analysis is huge in my opinion and significant even if you are trading a larger thesis.  My main thesis continues to focus on companies whose product integrates well with Facebook and Twitter and promotes the new social fabric.  If you find this type of information boring or useless I understand, but it fits my trading situation.  However, I will trim and prune the positions using the following parameters:

LNKD broke out of a month long consolidation on killer earnings.  Today’s selloff certainly seems overdone.  I expect to see buyers continue their campaign in the name tomorrow.  The past resistance near $110.00 could certainly behave as support now and I’m eager to buy any strength down here.  However, I dread a reentry into the previous range and consider ~$107.50 where I lose interest and sell the name, short term.

TRIP was a buy into the close today and is of interest to me on any strength tomorrow.  The stock could receive some pin action from the PCLN earnings due out later this week.  I consider $38.33 significant and expect the area to behave as support.

P is catatonic and attempting to bore all speculators to death.  Beware.  The stock was oversold, but is yet to see any significant snap back action and is instead frustratingly flat.  Many traders want to see it trade into the $10.00 region and I consider ~$10.14 where I will take my first scale should we see upward price movement.  I’m willing to stay long the name as cheap as $7.54.  Beyond that price it could become an even bigger bargain, but I will watch from the sidelines.

YELP is range bound with s slightly bearish bias.  It’s bracketed between $23.50 to the upside and $20.50 below.  Watch the markets behavior at these goalposts for insight into future direction.  I love the product and name.  But I would consider getting lighter in the name around $24 if the upward momentum continues to wane and would certainly take profits at a second visit to ~$30.

NFLX needs a higher low badly.  Not quite as oversold as it was back on 05/02 and still demonstrating bearish tendencies.  I’m not trying to get cute on this one and will cut it below $71.15.

Z looks great.  Not adding at the levels but watching for continued strength.  Price may hang out between 41 and 37 for a bit but exhibiting excellent strength.

PCLN started looking bearish after a strong morning.  I’ll cut below $733.

ZNGA oversold, churning.  Seems to be attracting buyers anytime it breaches $8.  Could go either way.

GSVC needs to hold $18.25 otherwise we could see it trade down to high $16’s again.

UPS looks bearish with a series of lower high lower lows.  Be very patient building into this name.  Not interested in any more purchases unless strength seen below $76.75

I know these thoughts are fragmented, but they will keep me on track this week.  Happy trading gents!

Did you see how I did that?

There is a reason I am frank when iterating this message.  I’ve seen this play out before.  The changing of the guards if you will.  A movement away from laptops and computers is happening on a global scale.  Yes, you and I will always have our workstations with five boss Rick Ross oversized Sammy’s staring back at us.  But we’re freaks, exceptions to the masses, and data synthesizers.  But our children will never have to own a computer.  They only need devices.  And even our current devices will be short lived.

The fabric of human interaction is changing and it’s no longer some “Physics of the Future” dreaming by some college student who legged too deep into an LSD position. Humans are no longer chained to wires and heavy machines.  The pads have become light and elegant.  With the changing of the hardware comes a changing in the software.  Remember getting your software in a fucking box, from BBY?  How about getting an AOL disk mailed to you every week?  I had hundreds of those.  Yep that’s a dead model.  Everything is on the interwebs.  Now imagine all that storage space from disks and local drives going away.  Where does it go?  I’m not sure but RAX seems to have a pretty good handle on big data.  If anyone’s going to innovate up to some space age storage shit I’ll wager it’s them.

Believe me, I know you’re all smart people and much of what I’m writing is old news, but it boils down to the core element driving my conviction.  Put simply, the fabric is changing.  Walls are tumbling down.  Experts and their opinions are waning in importance.  You’re only as good as your last communication, if you will.  THIS IS FUCKING DISRUPTIVE.  This is what ushers in the new millionaires and sends the stubborn to their final commode to shit away their final earth existence.  Those who collaborate and improvise most effectively will prevail.  Those words aren’t mine.  They’re Darwin’s.

So what does it all mean?  It means forget about getting on Stocktwits and talking (read bitching) about valuations and companies not making money and instead focus your attention on the disruption.  Corporate pump and dump?  Give me a fucking break.  I’m the expert now, get it?  And until it’s proven otherwise, until I start making lots of stupid investments and losing shit tons of coin here in the GODLY HALLS OF iBC (GHiBC) and on Twitter, I’m just as important a resource as Mike Moe running GSVC.  The same goes for YELPaholics or addicted day TRIPpers.  These normal, unsuspecting people drive traffic to businesses.

I’ll be the first to admit when I’m wrong.  Like how I top ticked NFLX today, my worse trade of the week.  Everything else has been tier one over @twosmuth.  I look forward to the ride.  Ride with me gents.

Social and tech I’m long, by weight: LNKD, GSVC, P, YELP, NFLX, Z, TRIP, UPS, ZNGA

I have 40% cash on hand because I got light into several earning calls.  See how small that ZNGA position is?  I want more, until I don’t.  I also want more TRIP, Z, & P.  I’ll be watching PCLN too.  I’ll be adding to LNKD on dips. Fuck I want more Yelp too pal!  However, I’ve gotten burned by not being all ferret like with my trades, so I must constantly prune and trim, prune and trim.

Rest well this weekend.  Talk with people face-to-face.  Plant an arborvitae.  Pet a dog.  These interactions are important and keep us human.

I came into this week with a full docket. Many of the names I’ve been accumulating had earnings this week. My thesis was and continues to be, if it has Facebook/Twitter integration and works decent on the iPhone or if the company in general promotes a social online experience YOU BUY THAT SHIT. Period. Thus I came into the week long a whole slew of names including reporters TRIP, Z, YELP, LNKD. DDMG had some circus sideshow also. Seeing as I dictate most of my purchases and sales on general supply and demand as seen in price action, I picked my spots to get light the names pre earnings. However, I like the thesis and wanted to see the names through earnings in a way I could manage risk.

For those keeping score at home, I went 3 and 1. LNKD. just. crushed. You want to know a nasty little secret? I don’t use nor like LNKD. It reeks of boring corporate monkey talk (no racism). But I made an account, like four years ago. And I get an email about once a week which I immediately discard.

Regardless, these equities are the key to making fortunes. I’m simply sure of it. Facebook IPO will mark nothing. This week marks everything. These companies are turning your clicks, your interactions, your fucking thoughts and muses into money. Lots of it.

The conference calls are filled with laughter and panache, and tech is going on a buying spree. Zuck’s going to make a BILLI in one day. The monies out there gents, are you man enough to take it?

How apropos, my 50th post comes on the advent of the new layout. Cheers Senior Tropicana, and thank you for the best stock pickers site on the interwebs.

I listened in on the 1pm conference call from DDMG this afternoon. Below are the notes I consider significant:

John Textor and Ed Ulbrich on the call.

Regarding Coachella:

90k people getting their minds blown all at once

Two months to create digital recreation of 2pac

2pac album sales increased 500% after show

1500% gain in Hail Mary CD sales

2pac website traffic increased 500%

Take stage as new form of entertainment.

Want gross ticket and vendor ownership, consider this revenue scalable

Regarding future business prospects:

See opportunity in Vegas

Unique and efficient model, don’t need to build lavish sets, projected environments can be 3D

Bring live and virtual performers together.  Concerts and Broadway theaters as huge opportunities

On the past:

80 films, 8 academy awards only 100M in revenues

Holy Grail of artistry is digital human animation, pioneered breakthrough with Curious Case of Benjamin Button – protagonist is computer from the neck up during first half of film

Then perfected on TRON with young Jeff Bridges standing next to The Dude (old Jeff Beezee)

Lots of irons in the fire:

Soliciting military contracting to build simulations

Medical simulation development

Building a school in Abu Dhabi to train low cost Indian labor (to then work for them?)

“backlog” of co-production, entertainment ideas

Opened a Pixar like studio in Florida

Company talent:

Hired Ray DuBois as Sr. VP to handle the Pentagonal bureaucracy of landing military contract work

My Summary:

Overall I think the company is exciting, and it’s nice to get some additional transparency via today’s non-earnings conference call. Whether or not it was an attempt to pump stock price I don’t know, the stock is selling off this afternoon and I took half my profits home above $9.00 mid call. However, if they stick to their long-term goal, the company will find its way into many of the future’s newest technologies. As Ed stated, “…just focus on making human beings.” and the business will grow. Apparently rending human hair is one of the most time consuming efforts, but they alluded to a possible Jimi Hendrix performance.  2pac was easy, bald.  Hendrix had plenty of hair, but they could have an easy time rendering the ‘fro:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVfoDO05xWM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

It pays to not try too hard on consolidation days like today.  Many traders on the stream this morning called for a trend day lower.  Instead of seeing further distribution since the morning gap lower the indices have been chopping around.  My portfolio, titled “AppLand3000”, saw a mixed bag today with most stocks lower.  Relative strength standouts were YELP and TRIP.

The TNA I added during the late Friday trade is causing some pain, but the underlying thesis stands.  I will continue holding the position and will only consider stopping out if TNA closes down in the low $58’s aka back in the April range.  The only other pruning today consisted of selling some PCLN and using said proceeds to add to YELP.  I really want to see YELP regain the $23.50 level to consider the price action constructive.

P, ZNGA, UPS, & RAX aren’t cheap enough yet, but I want more.

Before tomorrow’s AMC earnings in TRIP I intend to lighten my position a bit.  I will hopefully be doing the same with YELP and LNKD later this week.  However, the names I’ve laid out during my past two posts will continue to demand my attention and speculative dollars.

In the meantime, DDMG is trading in its own world.  Call it trader space camp.

I implore you to take an honest look at your current holdings and ask yourself, “Is this shit kinda hot right now?” Perhaps your names aren’t participating in the current market appreciation like you expected, perhaps they are. I can assure you the speculative funds are focused on the future of commerce: running your fucking life from a cell phone. Can one even call the iPhone a cell phone? Dare I say it has transcended such nomenclature? Indeed I shall, for it has. Beyond iPhone, full grown men are getting all giddy about whispers of a Facebook phone. LMFAO.

ZNGA got whacked pretty hard today after a decent earnings announcement yesterday afternoon. Stock didn’t go down enough, my opinion. I literally laugh at the jumpers and haters in this name. These games may seem childish, but I must assure you they are steering the gaming ship in new directions, pointing at the horizon and saying, “Right there good fellow, the new world awaits.” I want more shares, but I’m being exceptionally patient with the name as it continues to be led by the homo bear administration (no politico).

I am wholeheartedly embracing and positioning myself for the app and social universe to bamboozle onlookers with its majestic levitation. The names I hold, by weight: PCLN, LNKD, TRIP, P, Z, GSVC, YELP, UPS, and ZNGA. “UPS what the fuck?” one might say. To which I reply, “How the fuck else do you expect to get your shit?” Futurama, a show based in the distant future, in a world tangled with vacuum tube transportation, features a package delivery team as the protagonist. I rest my case.

Names I want to own, but just can’t wrap my risk management into: AMZN, RAX & ADS. Fuck me sideways I owned ADS & RAX at much cheaper prices. I played the hundred dollar roll in ADS early Q1 and left BIG MEECH BMF on the table. RAX I let go of early this week, like a coward. It perturbs me and my thesis in a most unhealthy manner.

Finally, I’ve strapped on a stage three rocket booster, TNA, into the close. Because the weekly charts on the indices keep whispering to me, “to the moon Raul3” like a gentle choir of angels.

You would know all of this already, had you followed me on Twitter @TwoSmuth

Listen, it’s hard to be humble after a week like this. I will reread the Chess archives this weekend and tempter my emotions.

Regards,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dghcqbl52aw&feature=youtube_gdata_player

P.S. Lest I not forget my full retard account is 100% long DDMG uuuuugh.

So it turns out Marc Zuckerberg and them are the real deal and speculative monies are flowing to the next big thing, social stocks and apps. It’s an easy story to buy into, and that’s why I foresee investors gravitating to these internet names all summer to get rich as fuck. The economy can go catatonic, all jobs flushed in the toilet, and the time users spend on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram will increase. The economy can start tit ripping and people will grab their iPhones and B.M.F. with the aid of YELP, TRIP, PCLN, and Kayak. AMZN will be your one stop shop for ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING brought to your door step fast as fuck by UPS. Want to buy a house? Get that Z app playa. All of the data our web interactions produce will be precious, stored by RAX and mined harder than a southwestern Indian reservation by ADS!

Do you not get this yet? Fuck I feel late buying into these names, but the winners are so young. Some names have been tossed into the gutter. Names like Pandora. P is a powerhouse consuming MASSIVE amounts of internet eyes and ears like “What’s a goon to a goblin? Nothing Nothing.” So cheap down here in my opinion. I’m not a catch the knife trader, but every day I watch the stock drop and ponder buying it up. For the love of Krishna, at least it’s clear how P makes money.

If you wondering what the next big (bubble) thing will be, financing the purchases of fuckloads of diamonds, it’s staring you in the face, the social mobile web. FUTURE, WAVE OF THE FUTURE. Go buy some now! Hahaha don’t do that. But at least consider what I’ve written.

FD: Long RAX TRIP LNKD GSVC YELP

HAPPY FLY APPRECIATION DAY! You are indeud appreciated.

Regards,

I have decidedly positioned myself into a rather internet concentrated basket: RAX, TRIP, LNKD, GSVC, and YELP now make up over 30% of assets. Furthermore I own GLW and ATVI. I own a few more names outside this space and they do very little to pique my interest. Facebook is coming IPO this summer. This “already hot as fuck” summer. Frugality fatigue is setting in and the consumer wants to trade in their factory wheels for platinum plated LED rims. Uugh so gangsta. In the stock market this translates to, “Honey we traded these boring ass blue chips for some app companies. Where’s my iPhone I need to continue running my life from it.” And as such, rank and file, the inflows will come chasing these names into the stratosphere.

At least, that’s the scenario I’m positioning for. Am I too late? Or is the fat 70% of the move still to be had? T.B.D.

Always remember not wait for the fire alarm to sound to sashay toward the exit. After all, these trades will be crowded with all the newbies, like a Deadmau5 concert:

This week the auto industry is loaded with fanfare. They’ve rolled out the red carpets in New York to tout their new models and global prowess. The media hubs are reporting the uptick in auto sales with glee. The economy, here it comes baby! While in New York GM is showing big banks, “how you handle a bailout.” Their words, not mine.

So here I am, about two weeks into initiating a holding in F. I hopped on this leaky yacht and left port only to slosh around in the choppy waters of $12-13 dollars. I see the trumpeting from the media and the dog and pony show not as a godly tail wind for asset appreciation but more like ten asthma patients taking turns blowing through a curly straw. “Fords” sails are limper than Clay Aiken’s wrists.

Volume and volatility ticked up in the name yesterday, and the stock is entering the proverbial fuck or walk stage. Break twelve or break thirteen, that is the question:

Sometimes I take a dollop of information bestowed by the benevolent bloggers of iBC and investigate whether it fits my risk profile and current portfolio concentration. Last night and this morning ChessNwine advised keeping an eye on MDVN based on seasonality data and overall biotech strength. Until today I enjoyed this year’s biotech coin banking tendencies via DVAX, which was highlighted by the gregarious Henry Fool. I got my lock-n-roll on this morning swapping DVAX for MDVN. This accomplished two things; I took profits on an extended name and maintained by portfolio’s biotech weighting.

Let’s talk about something important. Ignore iBC at your own risk. There are no shortcuts in trading or investing. A lapse in judgment of risk will always be “rewarded” with involuntary amputation. But know that you can save yourself 10’s of hours a week scanning THIS SITE ALONE for quality names.

Do you think I’m fucking with you? Current holdings by weight: LNKD, WFM (Mrs. Fly), F, AWK (Mr. Cain Thaler), HFC & GLW (Fly), DNKN, BID (Fly), KSWS (Fly), RAD & MDVN (ChessNwine), GSVC (Fly) and a 40% cash pillow.

Go and do likewise gents.