iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,080 Blog Posts

The Overplay for the Underlay

I came into this most recent market thrust with a cash position hovering near 50%.  During this entire year the lowest my cash position has ever dwindled was to 25%.  That felt fully vested.  I’ve lightened up as we’ve climbed the wall of worry.  Today cash is at 90%.

I’ve swung some multi-month positions, a few winners, a few scratches, and a few losers.  All documented within the sacred halls of iBC.  You see, this is my 100th post!  101st actually.  AND WITH IT COMES A GLEAM OF WISDOM:

DO NOT LISTEN TO ME, WHEN I TELL STORIES OF BUSINESS GRANDURE.

Let me explain.  I trade two setups well.  The more I trade them the more natural they feel.  When I trade these two setups, I know my risk and define my targets.  They’re very nice, very clean.  They’ve been my biggest winners and smallest losers of the year.

When I tell a story, about management panache, product elegance, AND SUCH…it’s puff.  There I said it.  It’s all just me building subjective interpretations of a company and its operations to support my bias based off a chart setup.  And it’s fun, so I will continue to do it.  But don’t be surprised if I sell off stock in a company I think is great once price gets sloppy.

Like how I sold RGLD today.  The setup broke down on Friday, but I suspected I would have a better price opportunity to close the trade today.  I got my early morning pop, it had no follow through, so I scratched off the trade.

But know this and you will enjoy my pieces more.  My trading centers on two setups:

Setup #1: Define if price is trending and trade the pullback and thrust in the direction of the trade.

Setup #2: A two scale purchase of a beaten down price, scaling off the original piece if price retraces.

Both setups rely on exponential moving averages.  I’m a momentum and overreaction trader.

So I will likely delve into the aforementioned setups in greater detail in posts going forward.  I’ll post the charts too, why not?  I will not, however, delicately place perfectly cropped babes on my charts.  I don’t have time for all that foolishness.  However, thank you KCScott for lowering my blood pressure via babe shots.

Regarding the markets, we’ve made a thrust higher.  And in my opinion the play now is to buy, but I need to find positions I can wrap a risk profile into.

I’m considering PCLN, should buyers step up.  It will be a small position if it gets triggered.  I like TOT on pullback too via this chessNwine piece.

I bought some STEM this morning for some riverboat action.

I need to get some of this cash out of my purse.  I’m walking through the hood without a piece.

To 100 more posts I salute you!

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Still Mostly Watching

Today’s action continues supporting my bullish stance.  We’re seeing mild consolidation of the recent move higher with calm indices and TLT has lost its upward momentum.  As the week continues, I see Friday and Monday as most telling to the overall tenor of the market.  If we can see price action continue calm into the weekend and a reasonably mild start to next week, I think it would be welcomed by market participants wanting to leg into long swing positions.

Since last post all I’ve done is halved my AWK position and sold out of DTE.  These names have run tremendously over the past year.  I still retain a 50% position in AWK and will add back on a significant retracement.

I still hold my 2/3 Zillow position.  But I have little desire to hold it through a significant correction.  I’m willing to cut the balance near my entry, $36.50.

RGLD reported a larger than expected income tax expense and is getting hit today.  Paper loss, operations seem as healthy and non-capital intense as ever.  This may be an opportunity to increase exposure to the name.

I bought some OMER alongside The V.KING.  I bought based off the weekly chart, and should price not regain the 33ema by the close of the week (~$8.65) I’ll close her up.

I’m mostly watching things, thinking slow, but prepared to move fast.  More than ever I’m contemplating career goals and paths.  Youth is so valuable and taking a leap of faith much less dangerous.  Have you ever seen a four year old, full sprint, face plant?  Minor scrapes.  Same event for our mass and the results can be deadly.  Same goes for a light baggage 20 something contemplating entrepreneurship over corporate fuckery.  If I fall on my face, I get back on the resume grind and pick up the pieces.

Travel and leisure is great, sure.  But I’m thinking more along the lines of freeing up my time to focus my energies on world domination and joining the space race.  Building orbital cannons and shit.

“Don’t let the man get’cha.  Do what he done to me.”

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Simma Down Nah!

This rally is off to a healthy start.  We’re going into EST lunch hour (the only lunch hour) and the indices are trading smooth.  TLT – is selling off.  It appears we have at the least tamed the risk adverse beast to a state of chop.  May it chop for many months whist we bank coin long equities.

We’ve come quite a way since last week Thursday, and the risk to initiating longs increases with each green close.  I see the possibility for more upside in this initial thrust which is why I’m very slowing scaling out of my new longs RGLD and Z.  I’m still holding my SPY runner from the position initiated the Thursday before last because we could keep climbing.

However, if we are to see sustained moves higher there is plenty of room to bank coin.  Plenty.  Therefore I’m still cash heavy.  I’ve felt the urge to buy these prices.  I’ve seen maniacal sentiment in names I like.  I’m waiting.

If Zillow can report anything in line, the fucker is off to the races.  The chart is healthy, the company is new to the market (hot), and real estate is something your average fucker can wrap their brain around.  For this reason, I’ve scaled 1/3, am considering scaling 2/3, but would eat my shoe before selling THREE THIRDS off before earnings.

RGLD has the drinking vessel formation on the weekly chart and may attempt a triple lindy higher.  Earnings on tap this week could catalyze said feat.

YELP looks pissed.  It looks like it wants the fuck higher.  To my eye it’s already higher than Snoop Lion lying blunted on an island.  I want to see it sober up a bit.  The chart could remain healthy, and I could get back to buying.

My utilities are selling off and so is MO because boring is losing its luster.  Trade in that old Aztec and get a hot whip (Yes Walt).  For fuckssake Ford is going up.  LMAO.  That’s some of the lamest beta you can tack on!

Bottom Line:  People are getting all crazy, I’ve been crazy.  It’s fun as shit.  MA MA MA MA MAYBACH music,,,, uuugh.. $P $P $P uugh.

I’m done being a fucking clown.  But until otherwise noted, I’m a bull.

Top pick: Z

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SANTA LUCIA

I’ve taken my foot off the throttle this week and done very little. I occupied most of my time quietly observing the market and my favorite blogs and streams. Several major projects are nearly complete and work flow is returning to its normal clip (read: robot order has been restored).

A less is more approach has worked well as the market dealt with another news heavy week. The markets digested some heavy news, and are now aggressively pumping higher out of a bull flag. The likelihood of a sustained move higher is increasing. We’re seeing some reprieve from TLT today as it loses its 33EMA. We’re also participating in a series of higher highs, higher lows on the SPY and QQQ. Bullish as it is, technicians want to see charts tighten up a bit as violent gaps are still present on many charts.

I came into the week long AWK, DTE and half a SPY runner from last Friday. Since then I’ve added two names to properly occlude my portfolio to what I determine to be a wall of worry in the making. Yesterday morning I bought RGLD and this morning Z.

RGLD is a stock I’ve had much success with during the initial stages of a rally as miners tend to party first and party hard. It pumped HARD June the first and has since retraced and began moving higher. The company reports earnings August 9th and although I don’t foresee the market giving said announcement much weight I will look to scale one or two thirds of the position off pre announcement. The weekly and daily charts both look very bullish to my eye.

Buying Zillow on retracements to its 33EMA on the weekly chart has served the bull well thus far. I like the name as a social/tech name and also for its exposure to real estate professionals. It’s about 15% off its recent highs and reports August 7th. I will scale shares off prior to earnings to avoid any violent reactions, but plan to retain small exposure.

I loved the earning’s report out of AWK. They cite “record pumpage” as a key driver to their huge earnings beat. Markets love record pumpage.

I still have a massive cash pile, around 60%. I will look to reduce my cash position and get into more longs should TLT continue down next week and the indices calm down. Top names on stalk: TPX, VHC, TRIP, and OMER.

My flight response has been stronger than ever this week, but I’ve tempered it and grown a war beard. Although I did extensive research on selling my home, buying a gunship, and pirating in the southern Mediterranean, I will continue earning like a good citizen. In the INTERIM! (peers over cubicle wall, sights exits)

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Friday Night Stock Market Mixer

Traded Z today, bought it 10 minutes into the session, at a price, that I KNEW presented risk, because it smoked up 2% along with the rest of the market’s heat and blew out my 3 min chart’s CCIs to the upside.  Then paused, no pullback, dip and retested the morning high.  And I’m sitting here thinking, “The Friday pump is on, social sector has been COMPLETELY tossed aside.  ZNGA has investors in total disgust, Facebook too, but Z looks good.”

Looked good on the daily chart, should it close green, SHOULD IT CLOSE GREEN, which I apparently
KNEW at 9:40am (#timestamp).

I top ticked by ten cents and shortly after sold it for a loss.

The good is after realizing I bought a setup on a company I like, based off a daily chart and product I like, for a swing, BEFORE THE SETUP ACTUALLY TRANSPIRED, was a mistake, I sold.  I also used a very small amount of capital, because my mood is salty in general and I REALLY should be quietly observing.

The bad is I mixed up my timeframes, and bought an overheated open in a euro coked  market.  The stimulators and trade bot news digester 9000 are shoving their faces in mountains of the Archie Bunker (UUGH!), long of oil and financial institutions.  The “been there, done that’s” of the QE pump world are cowering over small piles of precious metal and their levered buddies, the miners.  They sat around today, bug eyes from yesterday’s teaser, taking excessive bathroom brakes hoping to catch some action from the captain.  They want to meet Big Meech and Larry Hoova.  They’re still hoping to hook up come Monday.  But social stocks, my god their holders feel like shit.  They scored some bad junk, shoveled off at discount rates from Giranamo, the back ally drug stop and now they’re clammy and fetal.  The outstanding passer by mocks said miscreants as they partake in their own market debauchery.  The world’s a cold mother fucker for that fetal guy.  The world’s a cold mother fucker for ZNGA and FB “investors”…

Pandora crushed today.  That was interesting.  Late day sell off but hardly anything for bears to point at as a win.  Stock still closed up over 7% and right back into it’s long winded range.  I could like to see it rip right through that muddy range as buyers aggressively accost their mild mannered driver to whip the beasts tugging along their calash.  “I’m late for tonight’s soirée.” 

Pandora buyers are gentlemen you see, and while adorning a top hat, prefer the stimulation of a string quartet over bumping trill and sipping lean while riding through the hood.  

Pandora is disrupting terrestrial radio, so are a few other guys, but Pandora’s ad men are closers.  I’m exceedingly interested in their earnings.

—————————–

Listen pal, I may be on tilt.  I feel it.  I have mostly backed off all the action while I handle my business, but trading Z today was a breakdown in discipline.  I knew better.

However I will continue holding AWK and DTE until I don’t. Also I may get back into Pandora.  

If I’ve entertained you at all, AT ALL YOU INTERNET ZOMBIES, I insist you answer just one question in the comments:

Would you buy Pandora next week,  why or why not?

If I get 5 replies I’ll addenda this post with an exceedingly embarrassing event that occurred while writing this.

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TILT

Perhaps my extended absence has gone unnoticed by most, but I already feel the void. I have been performing data grabs and manipulation at a fire drill pace to appease jokers (no Dark Knight) in monkey suits. They blocked up a major money stream, and sent my skinny ass down a cable to bust open the logjam. It has taken 95% of my computer efforts.

I also have certain events in my private life that are downright somber. No deaths or dewy’s thank Krishna’s hooves, but my main squeeze and I are done. And it hurts.

The two events have transpired to leave me in a state of flummox. Therefore I sold off my high spec positions (P, ZNGA, TPX, WFM) and put a stop on YELP that was triggered today. ZNGA was working according to my plan to scale, but the balance would have claw hammered me good and hard. YELP ended up being a 5.5% loss on a 17% position, all-and-all 1% hit to my portfolio. Could have been a winner, but I stubbornly played the first pullback. No love lost, no love found. Drake’s words, not mine.

So here I sit, old mannish with a lode of cash and two utility stocks DTE and AWK.

Playing the WFM foolishness precisely right only to coward out at the last minute, and selling TPX 20% ago for no reason was telling of my psyche. Telling that I have too much on my mind-plate and I couldn’t bring the A-zone game. But most telling because I never give “lost opportunities” too much thought as that’s no way to bank coin. But here I am, staring at WFM and TPX tickers like a fucking creep holding the wall up at a nightclub.

The work bullshit is just that, and it’s done now. I still feel very upset about losing my girl and will be easing back into STAACKS when I get my mojo back.

But don’t think I’m some fat fucked hit-and-runner. Raul3, aka Macho Taco, will be back. After all, this is the best website on the interwebs.

PRE-POSTING UPDATE: I put a SPY position on at the close. I may be bereaving the death of my relationship, but I can’t pass an ace Friday squeeze setup.

And then this song keeps coming on, fuck Songza’s Lazy Summer station:

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Deals on Aisle Three

Well one of my favorite stocks went on sale this morning and I didn’t hesitate to pick up some shares.  Whole Foods will continue to outperform in the grocery space as consumers inevitably migrate away from high fructose corn cancer.  Companies like WFM have a rare quality in our rotting society: attrition.  Saves them shitte tonnes of money.  They’ve figured out the formula to motivate my generation’s lazy asses to work hard.  That’s really saying something.  If you’re afraid of playing earnings you many want to wait until after the 25th to participate.  However, I consider earnings the spark to reflex the stock higher.

Going into today I only had a 20% cash position.  I sold off Pandora and Zynga to make way for my WFM purchase.  ZNGA and P have dragged their feet throughout this entire rally.  With that being said the laggards may gain traction and participate in the next leg up.  However, I’ve lost patience for their foolishness.  Moving on.

Fuck me running sideways for not sticking with my TPX trade.  The stock has been outperforming for the entire pump.  However I won’t chase it up here as I expect price to slow down at the least, and more likely pullback.  I think we can play CMG in a similar manner once the dust settles.  I’ll be watching the developments in CMG price carefully going forward.

My largest position is YELP.  I have shares bought back in the spring, shares bought when it first turned green, and shares bought when it started getting mean.  Cost basis $22 bucks, 20% position.  Ride or die bitches.

POT looks good today too, I may jump back in.  More likely I’ll wait until Tuesday.

Summer year end clearance event.  However, none of us know what those Europeans have up their dirty wizard’s sleeve so keeping some cabbage on hand is gentlemanly.  Cash = 35%

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Trading Bananas

Might as well be trading bananas. It’s just letters attached to numbers at this point, yes?

I doubled down on ZNGA this morning.  The plan is to lean on $4.50 after my entry at $5.20 last week.  If price can’t recover the $4.50 price level I will be closing out the entire position for a loss.  Otherwise, if the stock regains the level, my plan dictates holding with a target to scale off my original purchase at $5.20, thus lowering my cost basis and allowing me to continue participating in the bottoming process of the lamest company on earth.

Pandora is weak again today and floating around my entry level.  I may drop this stock again before the day is through if it breaks down.  However, I want to see it through this range and am more inclined to hold.

Yelp is coming online and looks like it may make a leg higher.  I may ratchet this position as high as 20% should we see a strong afternoon develop.

DTE and AWK are participating in the utility/dividend bubble.  That is some bona fide costanza buffoonery.  Not sure what to think of the “rapid” appreciation of these stocks.  I’ll likely stick around.

I caught a nice entry on AAPL and that has me patiently eying a $620.00 target.  Still a hold.

I bought POT today.  I’m interested to see how these intelligent farmers who “report dead crops on purpose” and their bullshit crops affect hype and hot money in a fertilizer.  It’s business like this that makes me love being a speculator.

Essentially Zynga is tip toeing my GTFO line, Yelp wants more of my allocation, farmers are political bribers, Apple is Rick Ross, Pandora is often a box of bees, and utility stocks are experiencing a bubble.  Got it?  Now trade accordingly.

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Getting Grimy

Perhaps many of you begrudging the rally for not including your positions in the pump don’t understand the message sent today.  It came from the sharp tongue of a bankster.  Staring out the window, his eyes gazing at the simple populous thousands of feet below, he said clearly into the phone, “Ga’head.”  And what is now history was the markets’ resounding roar of acceptance.  The markets traded today with elegance.  Instead of a gap-up-leave-you-at-the-station mess, we opened on our hammers, let all the good traders position, then ripped.

Sure I wanted YELP to appreciate at alarming rates today like the rest of the market.  Indeed a 10% appreciation in ZNGA would have been welcomed (such a homo stock).  Instead those fuckers traded like a wet bologna sandwich at a picnic.  The same could be said about several sectors and stocks, but know this: financials are the largest god damned rocket you can strap to the market.  Put on your fucking space helmets and believe me when I tell you a sustained move in financials means bulls can advance with pomp.  Otherwise continue to lament your super soaked panini.

If we are truly seeing the beginning of a sustained move higher there is no better liaison than USA #1 banks.  They have the guns, germs, and steel.  They win, we all win.  Capice?

Banks…God I hate’em.

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Morning Jitters Lead to Afternoon Winners but China’s GDP Is Really for Dinner(s)

After getting off to a rough start this morning, the markets gained traction and we saw the mobile/social tech space heat up into the late lunch hour.  I sold my TPX in the morning, for no god damned reason.  I also traded FB like shit; chasing a flag only to stop out of what I thought would be a few day swing trade.  I had no other choice but to make a little break and have a long swim.  I returned very calmly to a market full of Fanta.

I purchased shares of Pandora on the rumored bid from Comcast.  Turned out the rumor was FALSE. If you recall, I sold my stake yesterday just under ten.  I should have stayed bracket committed yesterday instead of being a fruity fearer of round numbers. It cost me around forty cents. However I have retained my newly purchased shares.  Should the market gain traction, shares could rip up to bracket high $11-11.50 where I will scale 1/3 and reassess.  Shares went from up over 8% to up around 4%

Zillow recaptured $40.00 which seems significant considering the market’s reaction to the achievement.  Price went on to rip through $41 and looks beast.  Investor’s reacted positively to notes out from Zillow stating they’re getting a fuckton of mobile traffic to their site, a trait so important to web services in our transitory computing environment.

@mrtopstep tweeted about a trading break rule.  He says making a little pause after having either two profitable or five unprofitable deals in a row is his rule.  I may implement a rule like this albeit tweaked to swing trading.  I would love to hear any similar rules your guys adhere to.

Top picks going into the night we all watch the Chinese release capitalist data: YELP & Z

Good day good traders,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh8m4v5WkwQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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