Is The Music Over?

We’re seeing reversal action in some of the pockets of strength, including solar.  But it’s not lights out yet.  We’re still above the major bias line highlighted this morning.

I’m still considering the $ES_F range from 1654.75 – 1657.25 as the bias zone.  We can turn out a few lights if price is accepted below here.  Until then, swing away.

http://youtu.be/yfv9z23lu9E

Stocks are strong right out the rip this morning, with the S&P tide pushing all these jet boats (momo stocks) higher.

In the futures, I’ve traded four contracts, all to the long side, earning 1.5 handles, 3 handles, 1.5 handles, and a runner.  UPDATE: Closed the runner, 3.25 handles.

I kicked out SAM after initially thinking I would make it an investment.  I don’t want to be invested in SAM.  I like Pabst if I’m going low end, New Castle if I’m being normal, BUD for sports drink, and anything brewed at the micro capacity from Michigan all the time.  So why own SAM?

I sold LOCK too because it had a chance to be great and it decided going sideways was cool.  What a wimpy stock.

The solar trade is complete madness.  I love it.  These ‘late stage” conditions give a huge edge to the small trader who can ferret in and out of the crazy names.  My wild boy is Scotty.  SCTY is the proverbial stone that kills two birds, giving me a piece of Elon’s sweet ass and solar exposure. With that in mind, I’ve taken two scales, and am down to a runner on SCTY. You guys are crazy so I want to see how far your crazy gets me.

Don’t sleep on JRCC, it’s way out of balance after we learned Friday that they bought a little more time in their debt structure. I want to see the imbalance push higher, obviously.

New longs are YELP, and CRZO and cash is low low low, 25 percent.

Coming into the week, we have three days of overlapping value to use as bias for direction into the week.  Last week featured a very similar overlap of value and seeing acceptance of price above the big value gave us conviction to the long side all week.

The same weight should be given to the three days of overlapping value this week.

The overnight session has been flat thus far.  The only notable development was the rejection of Friday’s HVN on the upper volume node at 1664.50 which I consider the only line in the sand stopping more upside.

Here’s a markup of the other important S&P levels:

Sometimes you have to let a trade effervesce, gently bubbling higher.  Such is the case with LOCK, apparently.

Other times you give the trade room, and only offer it your left hand.  This is how I’m getting back into my good friend RGLD, our favorite Senator’s mining situation.

Then there’s downright degeneracy, demanding nothing but instant gratification because well, you’re a degenerate and want it NOW!  If you bought SCTY this afternoon and didn’t have this mentality, I tip my hat to you and your courage.

Let me be frank for a moment.  This has been a fantastic, albeit slightly frantic, day for the bulls and America in general.  These markets are enfuego, IN MAY.  I really hope portfolio managers took their stupid axiom to heart and missed all this capital appreciation.  For I hate them, mostly.

Raul worked in the financial services industry once.  Let’s just say there wasn’t enough trading, if you know what I mean.

My happy place is buying and selling things, all the time, like one of those Pawn Star folk.

Into the weekend, my cash is down to 30 percent.

I’ve put a shit ton of longs on, more than I can properly manage.  This weekend, I’ll be ranking these and consolidating them down.  But as it stands, here’s the look, by size:

Trades: FB, ANGI, SCTY, JRCC, RGLD, GS, HAIN, LOCK, RGR

Investments: SAM, CREE, AAPL, AWK

If you follow along on the Twitter you’ve seen these things come on, you’ve seen me scaling them down, and now I bid you adieu.  I’m off to fillet and eat one of my minons.

No future trades to report this morning as my attention has been on equities.  They S&P is trading inside yesterday’s value and has shown directional conviction to the upside.  Keep in mind however, that there’s still a gap trade open—which would see price back down to 1649.50.

I had to get a scale off on JRCC this morning after their debt restructuring announcement sent shares soaring over 20 percent higher in early trade.  Since then, I’ve been monitoring a few names, looking for upside action.

Top pick going into lunch: $LOCK

I have The PPT feeding me lots of good looking charts, I’m working to boil it down to one or two.

The overnight session has seen the S&P index as much as seven handles higher from yesterday’s close, putting in two rather methodic rotations higher.  The resulting volume profile is wide however, which paints a more neutral picture of the session.  We may need to see more profile development before we’re able to build any context from it.

The key feature of yesterday’s profile is when price “fell out of bed”.  A liquidation took place at 2pm and price tumbled 9 handles lower before recovering off the lows by about 33 percent.  The resulting action left behind an excess low at 1647.50.  Someone, aka they, found the price such a bargain, they snatched them up with aggressive reactive action.  Should we trade back down to this level and the market doesn’t receive the same aggressive reaction from the buyers, we can take it as a sign that something has changed, and position for lower trade.

I’ve highlighted this excess low and other key levels in the volume profile look, enjoy:

The market is digesting the gains bulls achieved earlier in the week with a consolidation today.  There isn’t a doubt in my mind that we’re overbought here.  But we simply haven’t seen any high volume distribution.  It’s just one rotation after another from extended stocks to the ones setup below.

I’m putting money in several names, looking to catch the next rotation.  I’ll be honest.  I don’t know where it will be.  My two primary rotational plays are LOCK and JRCC.  Lock is up over 10 percent this month but hasn’t pumped alongside the overall market this week.  JRCC is coal, so who the hell knows if it will catch a solid bid?

HAIN keeps marching ahead and I’m giving it space, but may take another scale soon.  I can’t resist booking gains.  The downside is I wind up with little fragments of runners in my books.  Current runner fragments include FB ANGI GS and RGR.  I’m considering adding to FB and RGR, but not ANGI up here.

My long term plays are AAPL AWK CREE and SAM.

My dog today is JOEZ jeans.  It needs to shape up soon or I’m cutting.

Cash is dwindling, down to 38 percent.

The morning session is balanced, and somewhat choppy.  The rotations don’t seem to make much progress and I got caught up in the noise with several trades.

I went 5/14 giving me a win rate of 36 percent.  My best trade was long into the 11 am hour catching a drift higher that earned 2.5 handles.  My two worse trade were chop along the VPOC each carving out 1.75 handles on two units.  Net-net I was down on the session.

My best position was shorting into the 10am Philadelphia fed number.  The market was bid up into the number, ran some stops and then reversed lower.  I covered far too soon, taking only 1 handle out of the 7 handle move.

Biggest area for improvement is waiting for a bit more conviction before trading from the middle of the value area to the outside.

Another quiet overnight session, forming the familiar bell-curve within yesterday’s fat value area.  This tells me there haven’t been any significant developments overnight.

The ten handles swing lower seen during the ES afternoon suggests emotions are building up in this tape, but hardly suggests complacency.  When price knifed lower to the scene of the early breakout, it was met as a huge buying opportunity.  The low volume node left behind at 1648.75-1648.50 is an interesting byproduct of that swift rejection.  Should the bulls not defend this level in the same manner on a retest, I’ll take it as a cue that sentiment has shifted.

Early on, perhaps even premarket, I’ll be looking for a test of the 1648.50 level mentioned above.

I had a solid session in the $ES_F.  I was working a long trade inside the VPOC.  On my first trade, I earned 1.5 handles on one piece and then scratched the net +2 ticks.  Then I re-entered and earned 1.5 points on my first piece and 5 handles on the second.  Nice little victories to have, all according to plan.

I jostled my portfolio up a bit, selling another 1/3 of my ANGI after the housing stats.  The housing numbers came out in-line/better than expected and ANGI had a nice morning move.  When it didn’t pump alongside the overall market, I took the cue to scale some profits.

I also started buying JRCC.  There’s a lot of good guys in this trade, for various reasons.  I’m in it for the little 5-10 percent, you know that.  That being said, I want to see this trade get moving soon as it hasn’t quite turned the momo corner.  Developing…

Look at Ford, wow, good American breakout.  I’m taking a step back this afternoon and smelling the roses.  I want to see some afternoon action before deciding to buy more stocks or sell down what I have.

http://youtu.be/f5L140YRFpg