iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

The Market Is Correcting Me So Hard

My swing portfolio wrapped up methodically giving back all second quarter profits today.  I don’t know how closely you follow along, watching Raul get crazy on the tape, but when I stand outside the fish bowl and see myself the sight is horrific.

Stupid greedy bastard little fish.

But I replay every trade I take.  I take notes, I brood.  I make plans to take over the world.

All this I say like some kind of awkward apology if you’ve hitchhiked onto any of the MANY losing trades I’ve taken recently.  I’ve been ADD trading, buying every tip, rip, and slip in the market.

No mas.

The overarching theme to my losers is bad entries.  High risk entries to be more precise.  It fucks with your confidence when it takes a 12 percent move to deem you “wrong”.  At least it messes with mine.  I compensate with smaller position sizes, but then I have 15 small positions clown raping me simultaneously and shit gets out of whack.  Pardon all my swearing, I’ve lost mucho dinero (no Robert).

It’s been one stop out after another, if you read me on the twitter network you’ve seen them peppered out over my timeline.  Brutal.

But now is not the time to sit in an inflatable pool of pity.  As a matter of fact, it’s never time for pity friend.  It’s time to pick yourself back up and be more powerful, more dangerous, MORE STUPENDOUS THEN EVER.

I started already by absolutely annihilating the liquidation break.  Red arrows are my short entries, blue my covers.  Look at this:

entry

That’s the best god damned string of trades I’ve ever taken.  I should only trade during this madness because the rest of the time you’re cold sweating and grinding out 300 bucks. It’s disheartening to say the least.  To say the most it’s questioning every decision in your life that’s led you to trade futures.

The above string of trades is why I trade.  I crushed.  It felt amazing.  That’s my planned trade.  It cleared my mind, like making sweet love.  I made sweet love to the tape all over the place.   Anyhow…

If we’re entering range trading like I suggested last night, then we should be at or near the bracket lows.  Thus a mean revision should go down, taking us back into the 33 and 9 EMA.  That trade should earn some coin.  That’s why I bought ZION into the bell.  Banks make money with higher interest rates and ZION had some fantastic proprietary PPT stats going on.  So I took the trade.  Look at this entry, too.  It’s low risk, down to about 26.75 and relative strength to boot, not bad.

Tomorrow brings anything, being a quad witching and all, but we have the technology, the money can be rebuilt.

You would likely perfer the NSFW version of the following video, go find it:

Comments »

Grade USA Bunker Busting Power

The sellers brought the force yesterday and overnight.

S&P futures continued lower after the cash close yesterday rotating as low as 1612.75 before stabilizing.  Around 4am the sell orders began flowing into the markets again pressing the globex session to new lows at 1605.50.  Since then we’ve stabilized again as we approach RTH.

The current size of the gap (over 10 handles) is often referred to as a pro gap, and often goes unfilled.  However, given the overall choppy conditions of the market, I suspect a slightly higher probability exists than the typical low 40 percent odds.

Most important today however, is defining levels of potential support.  I won’t be performing any knife catching feats in the futures today, but it’s important to keep these reference points in mind while gauging the sentiment of the market.

I expect some attempt early on by the buyers to press higher.  Here’s the levels I’ll be keying off of in today’s trade:

ES_MarketProfile_06202013

Comments »

Market Indecision Will Fleece You of Your Coin

Whether you trade weekly, daily, tic, range, or minute charts you MUST recognize a lack of trend and behave accordingly.  To trade momentum there must be momentum.  I know V.King would enjoy that sentence.  Once you recognize conditions where momentum is gone, you must adjust to fading extremes or sideline yourself.  That’s it.

I like to use EMAs to give a trend some visual clarity.  When EMAs of different speeds (i.e. the 9 and 33 period) converge and then flatten out, that’s a strong indication the market is on pause.  Such was the case all morning.  Today it was easy for me to avoid because we were working inside a tight market profile and we had the Fed in the afternoon which I knew would give the market a pause.  More times than I would like to admit, I haven’t been so astute.  And every time I fail to recognize these conditions the alogs pick me to pieces.

I’ve been a doubter of any such trendless action most of June, but as the month drags on it’s becoming a distinct possibility that we’re entering a flat consolidation phase.  My 9 and 33 are flattening out and going sideways.  It would make sense too given that my momentum plays are all fizzling out.  Take a look:

 

SPY

I’ve spent the last few weeks churning my portfolio with small wins and medium losses.  All-in-all I’ve given back hard fought gains.  Anyone who tells you the gains came easy is wrong and unwashed.

Today I cut most of my China junket.  I sold off BIDU, YY, and MY.  I sold WETF along with the Fly and I took some profits in CREE, keeping the position about ½ size.

You may notice a much less manic tone in my writing.

I’m up over 50 percent cash now and lost around 1 percent today.  Current longs listed largest to smallest are as follows:

YGE, HMIN, IMMR, RVBD, CREE, SCTY, RGLD, TPX, and FB

I want to keep my speculative swing positions down.  I’m getting confused, tracking so many positions.  Plus liquidation becomes more taxing by my broker.

I’ll ride most of these through the trendless chop of the index.  But I swear little allegiance to any and will cut to make room for others.

I don’t love the idea of shorting up here, but both T and JBLU look like great swing shorts to my eye.

Bottom Line: It’s summer now.  We may still push higher but we’re showing signs of stalling momentum.  This is the third major pullback too, it has a much lower win rate then the first two.  HOWEVER, we’re on the proper side of the 33 EMA, my primary demarcation.

Comments »

Sitting Through a Draw Down

As we mosey into the Fed event, my arm is slowly being eaten by a small Chinese crustacean.  I don’t hate the name yet, but why oh why?

I don’t even know what they do.

The problem here is I still like the chart.  What Uncle Ben says should have no real implications to the basic goings on of YY, but YY as an equity could see some action on the Fed.  So it’s on ICU watch, and I’m fully prepared to pull the plug if it takes a turn for the worse-er.

Same goes for fairy dust wind energy name MY.

Awesome, carry on.

UPDATE: Both of these positions stopped out post our holy Ben speaking. 

Comments »

Key $ES_F Levels and Review of the Overnight Session

The overnight session featured a seven and a half handle chop which already sets the tone that the market is building energy.  Up above, yesterday’s high of 1648.75 was tested twice and both times rejected.  It now resembles a triple top.  Any sustained trade above this level gets us moving fast.  If we see price accepted above these levels only to fail, that would be a nasty bull trap.

Below the overnight chop is 1641 which aligns with yesterday’s value area low.  Sustained trade below this level will quickly take us to yesterday’s low (and open) at 1634.  If the lows don’t hold, the sellers will likely target 1627.25 then the sold foundations from 1622.75 – 1620.25 – 1618.25 – 1617.  This cluster of support is vital to the long case in the short/intermediate term.  Below there, price gets slippery down to a 1614 LVN then 1610.25 06/13 VPOC.

I’ve noted the above levels in the following chart:

ES_MarketProfile_06192013

Comments »

The Most Curious Footprint Encountered Yet

The weather in Michigan has reached the short stretch where it becomes sublime and you’re flooded with memories of what make the murder mitten a great place.  I watered my new cement, one of the joys of home ownership.  Imagine that, desert troglodytes.  I’m surrounded by fresh water, splash.

Cement is a great foundation for building upon.  For weeks after you pour it, the cement continues to cure underneath the hard surface.   Cooling it off with water promotes a more solid cure and whiter concrete.

I could go on about fresh concrete for hours, I love infrastructure.  But instead turn your attention to these profiles building up in the S&P.  My game was thrown off over the weekend, and important work was neglected.  The profiles needed to be chopped and screwed going back to late-May to give us an idea of what’s going on above and where we may expect to encounter resistance.  There’s lots of really interesting stuff going on, but I want you to pay particularly close attention to the following features of the profile chart:

Look at the profile NAILING the RTH high today

Look at the layers of support properly formed and lain below, like good concrete

Look at the OPEN AIR from 1649 to 1661

You better click this one and keep it open on a new tab

ES_MarketProfile_BIG_PICTURE_06182013

The red dotted line at today’s high represents the value area high from the calm morning of 5/30, just before all hell broke loose and a one direction (no homo) move to our recent swing lows occurred.  The green dotted line is the 05/30 VPOC.  Curious, yes?  That we’ve set value in near perfect alignment with this singular event?

Buy orders brought us back here this morning, that’s what today’s P-shape profile suggests.  They came to market early to initiate new longs, or perhaps it was short covering.  Either way the buy pressure abated and/or was met with enough selling pressure to end upside progress for the remainder of the session.  But, not enough to press lower.  You still with me?  Because none of this matters too much.  All that really matters is The Fed.

But we’re here, at a critical juncture, the market will tip its hand, but a tip higher has to simply levitate, as where a missile lower has to carry grade USA bunker-busting power.  Place your bets…

Comments »

Lateral Moves All Day

Apropos that I would get all excited about the LED industry last night and not over the weekend putting me one day behind the move.  The kicker of it all was stalking GTAT yesterday but not pulling the trigger.  I wanted to see a capitulation move lower.  This is an example of an opportunity where getting half my position on would have worked.  And given the gaptastic nature of AIXG, I don’t want to chase it higher.  I’m shaking my fist at the entire industry.  At least I have my CREE.

All last night I thought about how much I wished I had bought BIDU and SCTY into the bell.  They both looked great on a closing basis.  So I came to market and bought them both today.  Now I don’t really want SCTY.  I can be so fickle at these choppy junctures.  No less than three times I’ve considered rolling all the SCTY funds into BIDU.

I’m getting really excited about this TPX trade, it’s working out well.  Look at that weekly chart.  Another strong weekly candle has to have you seriously considering this name for an intermediate term swing long.  Yes, I’m talking my book.

I cut RENN and HSOL, but the rest of my China basket is in place, lined up in marching formation, ready for ramming speed.  Actually HSOL looks ready for ramming speed too.

At one point I was 92 percent long.  I had to adjust that down a bit.  I cut ODP, RENN, HSOL, and DDD.  All-in-all, I have too many longs if you ask me.  I’m bombarded with great setups and my ADD has gotten the best of me.  None of these trades looks bad at this point; they just don’t look as good as my other longs.

Now I’m sitting 75 percent long, awaiting The Fed.  I’m very slightly red on the day, and my broker loves me.

Comments »

Drilling into Monday’s Dynamic Action

The overnight session firmed up around midnight and took the S&P globex session five handles higher to reach a high of 1639.50 before finding sellers willing to knock us back down.

I’ve zoomed in my profile chart in to only display Friday and Monday action as the two days were dynamic enough to provide me several reference levels.  Remember that I split the profile when a notable change occurs in the market, allowing me to better see the individual auctions.

All it took was a Fed rumor to send the index barreling lower and I think that speaks volumes to the conditions in these markets.  Longs from last week have lovely gains, and they’re worried terrified they may lose them.  We’re in choppy, macro waters.

However, large vertical price discovery presents great opportunity, so we should welcome these conditions.

I’ve highlighted the levels I’ll be keying off of today in the following profile chart:

 

ES_MarketProfile_06182013

Comments »

2013 IS STILL THE YEAR OF THE LED

They’re showing up more and more.  Look around.  Check out the latest municipal project in a town near you.  Keep an eye on the businesses that you consider innovative and on the cutting edge, the LEDs are coming.

As you know, I’ve made my bed with CREE.  I’ll ride this stock to zero if need be.  The stock is up 85 percent year-to-date.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you, bang the drum, and play along for the duration.

We’ve played around with some other names, diddling really, trading the pumps in RVLT and LEDS.  That’s all I’ve conjured the conviciton to do because I find the companies to be shit, for lack of a better word.  But I’m getting the craving to commit more capital to an intermediate term idea.

With that in mind, I would like to turn your attention to Aixtron, ticker AIXG.  There is a lot to like here, so we’ll go through the following bullet points then we’ll look at the lovely charts:

  1. They’re German
  2. They have Chinese factories or “Training Facilities”
  3. They have a sales office in California, where the gold is
  4. They have a sales office in Israel, where the Israelites live
  5. They don’t have a hovel website like other LED companies (cough, cough, LEDS)

All of that is nice, but you know what really matters most to me, the price charts.  Price is lining up on both the daily and weekly timeframes.  These foreign stocks trade awful intraday and often gap all over the place, but if you accept that, we’re looking at a nice risk entry.  This one also may be too thin for some of you bigger players.  Nevertheless, have a look:

aixg_daily_06172013 aixg_weekly_06172013

You have to give it risk to $15, but PPT members, have a look at the proprietary statistics…we may not see much opportunity lower.  Either way, a smaller position size until the position starts to work or offers better entry for a double down may be the best way to play this name.

Comments »

GOING FULL CHINA

chinese_military

I’m sticking to the China theme mainly because the charts aren’t over extended. I can get decent risk based entries in names that could produce huge returns. That’s the humble reasoning.

The subjective reasoning is the Chinese are coming. They’re coming for the US markets riding solar powered Godzilla monsters and they mean business. My list of China longs is, well, long:

YGE, HMIN, YY, RENN, HSOL, and MY (listed by position size, largest to smallest)

All together, the basket represents about 35 percent of my portfolio. May they all go total Godzilla on a town near you.

UPDATE: I’ve pinned all the charts up to detail what I see

http://youtu.be/9T8vlrPTkYA?t=41s

Comments »