Keep in Mind Tomorrow is the Fourth

Which means today is the third, you follow?  Let me explain:

We had a rather pungent selloff overnight, taking us as much as 13 handles off Tuesday’s close.  We continue to be operating in a gap prone environment so mentally you should be prepared to handle such occurrences if you choose to hold positions overnight.

The key support today, on this shortened trading session, is 1592 which is only two handles below the overnight low at 1594.  When I present the market profile to you, and you see the succinct manner in which it has located highs and lows this week, you’ll understand the gravity of this level.

Below 1592, price could begin working toward 1584, however given the shortened session, it would take a great deal of fear to press into these levels.

We’re right on the cusp of considering today’s gap to be of the pro variety, so it carries a lower probability of filling, but also a much higher reward.  Let’s see who enters the market early on, if at all.

I’ve noted the levels I’ll be trading around in the following profile chart:

UPDATE: ON $F strength, I’ve swapped the dirty Brit Beatles song for the USA #1 Beach Boys:

Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4^th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

Today’s follow through atop yesterday’s move atop last week’s move HIGHER is fueled by pure patriotism.  As I type, the index futures are “giving it up” but I don’t care.  You may in fact be hard up to find a bull who cares, because “the good stocks” are higher; stocks like Fords (sic), Cree, and Apple.

The long wick on XLF and all the jitters it produced have to this point been swept aside, and the financials are behaving rather constructive.

REITS are defying bearish setups, TLT is up, and so is our dollar.  Keep in mind, our jungle informant, deep in the Forex bush, is expecting an ambush on the dollar soon.  Always keep an open ear to Kong.

Pincus over at ZNGA decided he wants his net worth to appreciate, so he replaced himself.  In perhaps the best decision of his life, he hijacked Microsoft’s head of Xbox, brilliant.  I’m constructive on ZNGA henceforth, and will patiently tan my body and plan my entry.  I will likely pepper myself in in 1/2s, 1/3s, or ¼’s due to the nature of ZNGA shares.

My only actions thus far have been tossing fish in the futures, making lunch monies, and scaling off some AAPL shares as we rocketed into the 33ema @ Jerry Garcia aka $420.

I still want SHLD, and I thought your bastards may have beat me to it, but here it comes, right to mama.

ANGI needs to go soon or it’s out, I want to keep my holdings to 12 and this one is, how do you say?  Stalling.

As we enter afternoon trading, the question is, do the bears really want to be short into the kickass fourth of July?  Cover your shares, or face a barrage of whirly birds, mortars, and wolf packs.

Bonus: What’s your favorite firework?  Let me know in the comments below.  I’m going shopping.

As much as I love software updates, I’m still having trouble getting my NinjaTrader platform to display profile charts.  On top of that, most of my historical data was wiped out.  I’m hoping I can recover the data.

Thus I will present the bar chart again today, and reference the key levels from the last two days of trade.

I had a profile running yesterday during the RTH, and the key take away from the action was the P-shape profile as we worked up into the long liquidation that occurred on 06/19.  Buyers were able to squeeze the sellers early on with gap-and-go action, only to see the sellers overwhelm the tape after the morning’s dynamic move.  The initiating sell orders (orders executed at the bid) began flowing in around 12pm, and pressed against a price “shelf” at 1616.  For a moment it appeared they may not break the level and a second squeeze would ensue.  However, they broke the level and were able to rotate us back down to the opening print.

I’ve noted where the shelf exists in orange on the following bar chart.  I’ve noted other levels I’ll be keying off of as well.  Note the light blue line at 1623.75, that is the origination of the big 06/29 long liquidation.  I expect a test of this level soon, if not this week.

Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions.  The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.

The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19.  Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.

The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4^th of July.  Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring.  I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.

Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?

Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain.  My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win.  I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today.  I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.

I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order.  They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size.  I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money.  I continue to jump the gun on my setups.

That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.

I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount.  However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices.  I may not see them.

Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness?  Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to.  Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics.  And what did I do?  NOT JUMP THE GUN!  I stuck my head in the sand.  It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then.  Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.

Have a good one

When the clock struck midnight and it officially became July, the market went on a pure, unadulterated 16 handle run off the lows of the globex session.  The move tested the RTH highs from Friday at 1610 before retracing just above 1600.  A second test of the 1610 level occurred, giving us five touches of this level.

Should it be tested again in RTH, I’ll be playing for a move though it and up to 1614.

I’ve noted other key levels for today’s trade on the following bar chart.  I upgraded NinjaTrader over the weekend and haven’t managed to work all the bugs out.  Therefore I will be trading without my profiles today, aka V.F.R.

Click to enlarge:

June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

The Devil called today’s reversal, but now it’s time to press into the shorts.  They leaned on the bid all afternoon yesterday right at these levels.  Bulls are turning up the heat on their positions.  When we take out yesterday’s value area high at 1610.50 it’s a go.

I’m about 80 percent long in anticipation after today’s adds to TPX and new buys in ANGI and GS.

PS, iBC was all over the reversal:

The overnight market made upside progress throughout most of the session only to give up five handles over the last hour.  The swoosh lower brings us to an interesting price level, 1606, which coincides with the single prints on yesterday’s profile.

After two days of the market printing neutral sessions, probing the large gap above and finding sellers, and the overall corrective nature of the market, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see some chop/lower prices.  The clear question is whether sellers are again able to dictate lower prices in the effective manner we’ve seen since earlier this month.

I’ve highlighted a few levels of support I’ll be monitoring to gauge any progress made by the sellers and other key levels in the following profile chart:

Yet the sellers can’t gain traction.  Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out.  The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress.  All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.

Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today.  I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues.  The weekly chart suggests it could.

I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations.  I hate when a house goes pending, BTW.  When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes.  This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up.  For now, I’m ½ size.

These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry.  So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary.  The same goes for TPX.  This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX.  You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.

We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd.  Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4^th of July?  If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.

I’m still in FB, did you know that?  I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good.  This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives.  Note: I don’t do FB.

Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names.  I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:

AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION