iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

Concentrating My Eggs

I sold out of Goldman Sachs near the open and missed the entire rally, I was moved by the strong sell flow early on in the S&P futures.  The same sell flow also marked the low of the day, at the key price confluence highlighted this morning.  The market turned here and ran 8 handles higher closing just off the highs.

I wasn’t offered opportunity to get on board the move until late in the session, and feeling underexposed, I added to my TPX, AIXG, and FB longs.

TPX is officially my largest position, constituting about 18 percent of my portfolio.  I’m now playing a game of chicken with the shorts as we approach earnings July 22nd.  Obviously, I don’t want to carry this entire position into earnings, so I will be a seller into strength.  I wanted to make sure I had enough in the name to allow for some scaling, but still offer modest positioning into their earning’s announcement.

AIXG caught a nasty downgrade today.  Shares were off over 5 percent and I’m near my stop point so I doubled my long.  The position isn’t quite full size, more ¾, with a plan to scale off the additional shares at or near my original purchase price of $16.87Max pain is below 15/share.

I added to my FB long.  My basis in the name is right around here.  I liked it last time we were trading at 25, I like it even better now that there’s a base beneath.

As awesome as this week has been for longs, my gains are excruciatingly modest due to matters way beyond my control.  Like the clown baby who went full Rachel Ray and started “The Truth About The List” which can only be described as childish.  There’s nothing wrong with being childish, it can be rather entertaining.  As a matter of fact, I laughed out loud when I first saw the site.  I even wrote about it in my diary!

“Citizen for Internet Transparency made a funny website today” it read, “it made me laugh.”

The humor wore off when the shares gapped down nearly 4 percent today.  How much of this move is attributable to the hit site is unknown, but unless things get turned around rather quickly, it’s as if an anti-momentum laser was fired at the shares.

This feels a lot like the anxiety phase of an upward move which is what keeps me pressing my longs even though a part of me wants to cash out.  Also we’re capturing these upside levels that seemed a bit farfetched which is surprisingly bullish.

http://youtu.be/2YcIgow6TDk

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Strong Rotation Overnight – Will it Hold?

Big moves continue to be the norm in the overnight market, with the /ES_F seeing nearly 10 handles of upward rotation since the cash close.  We’re off the high of the overnight session, clocked in at 1645, but not significantly and the market is still showing upward momentum.

It appears we may work to accept value above our first key upside price level 1639.50.  Keep this level in mind today as it coincides with yesterday’s high.  How we trade relative to this price will give us a strong sense of market sentiment heading into earnings.

I’ve highlighted this key level and other potential prices of interest in the following profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_07092013

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Don’t For One Second Forget it is Summer

Summer: when the women present their supple midriffs above skirts and now my new favorite, the high rise jean.  Of course, it takes a certain physique to pull this look off.  And as much as you think it’s skinny or curvy, it really all comes down to posture.

Summer: when the stock exchange stabs a cold knife in your back the moment you turn away.  There are distractions abound, like my internet crush, Chiara Ferragni.  Ladies, note the posture, stunning:

ChiaraFerragni

Today we printed a messed up looking candle on the SPY.  Big deal, right?  I mean every candle has been haggard.  But I don’t like the positioning of this one, going into earning’s season.  For all intents and purposes, earning’s season starts Friday, premarket.  That’s when we hear from WFC and JPM who will set the tone into Friday’s tape and the weekend.  It would be wise to focus on your risk profile into Friday’s trade.

We should get a sense of the front running during the week, we have our key levels above, any of which if accepted by the market would be a huge contextual point of reference.

Below, we have doji city…one bad day could very easily cut through all this nonsense.

So raise you vigilance this week, rank your positions, know your risk and targets and most important, work on your posture.

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Equities Continue Their Clumsy Appreciation

The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap.  This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.

Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’

With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day.  None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations.  The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse.  It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.

Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much.  I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.

My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well.  When one is feeling down, the other is up.  Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much.  You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment.  I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.

People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning.  What the fuck?  You start a business.

ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap.  This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must.  My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.

FB looks kind of hot, finally.

My LED stocks are getting hammered today.  Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward.  I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.

AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.

F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.

I’m currently at 13 longs.  I prefer a max 12.  But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.

 

 

 

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Morning $ES_F Analysis and Plan

I took extra care and time preparing my profile analysis this morning, savoring it like peppercorn duck paired with a well concentrated Chianti.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

 

There were major implications surrounding 1623.75 as it pertained to the proclivity of providing directional bias.  I worked diligently to keep this level in your mind and more importantly mine to ensure appropriate steps were taken to adjust equity exposure according to the market’s treatment of the key level.

I’ve split Friday’s profile open so we can more clearly see and discuss the auction that took place.  Before the open, the market traded just above 1623.75 and churned the level rabidly during the monthly Employment Data drop. The first two paragraphs featured here provide blow-by-blow commentary.

We lost 1623.75 before the cash market opened and experienced a subsequent drive lower fueled by a large burst of sell orders.  After an hour of trade, buyers perceived the market’s current pricing as a discount, and swiftly auctioned price back into the opening range, then again rotating up to 1623.75.  Their actions left footprints initially at 1609 where a single print buying tail printed, then at 1613.50 where they rejected the seller’s attempts to again rotate lower.

Overall, the day flashed of neutrality, mostly, when we saw the range extension higher get faded back to the mean at 1619.25.  Only at this very moment, a very powerful move higher, nearly 10 handles occurred.  I’ve separated said move away from the primary body of Friday’s profile and made it independent.  That’s because at that very moment something changed and it needs to be treated as independent from the primary session.  Independent like a good American, USA.

Overnight the ramifications of the above accomplishment played out, and now we’re coming into the week with a large gap up, over 10 handles above the cash close.  Today may be particularly difficult to trade, especially if the market doesn’t establish a clear vertical trend in either direction.

Up above, you’ll notice large gaps between my reference points.  That’s because we’re nearing the upper mouth of a huge long liquidation.  However, these levels are all huge accomplishments for the bulls, and acceptance of any one of them should add conviction to the long trade.

Weekly upside targets in the S&P futures are:

1639.50

1646.25

1649.00

I’ve noted these levels, and other key reference points in the following profile chart.  You should click to enlarge this image, and keep it open on a tab:

ES_MarketProfile_07082013

 

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$YGE Trader Performance Analysis and Forecast

Allow me to preface this performance report with a note about strategies, signals, and systems.  There are a million different ways to approach the markets.  Most approaches can be taken to profitability, and all approaches can make you insolvent. To consider one method better than another relies on the traders own subjectivity and how they view and comprehend an approach.  I prefer simplicity and risk management because it suits my fringe lifestyle.  I need a standardized method of assessing the risk a trade carries.  That way, if I get a strong appetite for an industry, like solar, I can find a vehicle I’m confident driving.

All of this is fine and dandy if you execute according to the plan.  Execution is where a trader is defined, and where money is made.  When your ‘signal’ trips you need to execute it.  Finding a signal and becoming intimately acquainted with it is the only way to consistently profit in the markets. When you take time to think, really think, you won’t be reacting and trying to think in the heat of battle, you can stick to the steady handed plan.

I had a really good thing going with the YGE trade and somewhere down the line I lost my vision and muffed it.  Fortunately, when I returned to my study and in the evening recognized my folly, I made preparations to correct myself.  My YGE trade net-net became profitable on Friday, but pales in comparison to the profits it could have generated had I stuck to the plan.

THE ORIGINAL PLAN – PRESENTED WITHOUT COMMENTARY:

YGE_06172013

THE EXECUTION – Green arrows represent buy points, red sell points, to date:

YGE_07072013

That, my friends, is poor execution.  I was swept into the sea of emotion on 06/20…do you remember how fucking nuts 06/20 seemed?  It was fake.

Hell, we never even lost the 33 EMA on a closing basis.  And we were clear above my risk parameter.

So what went wrong?  Poor execution, friend.  My takeaway is to keep position counts lower, allowing me to better assess my prescription risk plans before making decisions.  When 10 positions are all down big, sometimes you just pick the most painful one and slow the bleeding, even if it defies the plan.

Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered.  Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target.  Behold:

YGE_07072013_WEEKLY

 

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HUGE

A shot was fired across the bow of every…you know what, I’m not going to poke the bears as they’re already illiquid. A shot was fired across the bow of every underinvested money manager who continues to underperform the S&P 500. You know who you are, calling yourself a professional, what with the fees and the boats and the cocaine buffets. I hope you’re checking in on a low powered Internet connection, high on “the piff” considering your options. Let me lay a few out:

Buy index futures very quickly on Sunday
Come to work Monday and buy Goldman Sachs
Quit and scrape together money to obtain a cabbie license
Dust off that resume and work you fickle Ivy League networks (read fellatio)
Go home and play with your kids, they won’t judge you

Ah ok I’m done. What a comeback today, the type you can only see orchestrated by the greatest powers in finance, true architects. The truth is, I don’t manage money for others…just the scraps I’ve worked tirelessly to gather, living for years like a hobo. I’ve always hated being wrong. But I temper that hatred, and stop being wrong when biting the proverbial bullet is the only way out. If these charts play out how they’re 75% likely to, you need to stop being wrong and ratchet up your longs, friend.

In doing so, your orders will propel my existing positions higher, appreciating my capital while I drink Bush Light and skip stones in paradise. For you see, I gathered your jetsam for two weeks. The bow of my boat could barely crest the rough waves, but safe harbor is in sight. Soon I’ll own the entire port.

All I did today, aside for living the dream, is buy more GS shares. There’s a saying, “When in doubt, buy Goldman.” I did exactly that. Have a great weekend.

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Stow Your Space Helmet Under Your Chair

We thoroughly auctioned 1624 during the Employment Data drop, with algos tearing a rift in the market one nanosecond at a time. One day watch these announcements through the filter of a 2500 contract or 3 tick range bar and get a feel for HFT. It’s like a ballet.

Anyhow, the level was “auctioned” and we had the classic first move fake out, followed by the takeout, followed by the real move, which was decidedly lower…20 handles off the high. Now the ES_F is more or less churning and the afternoon may offer some directional moves, but you’re of better service to your clients or your own money laying off this tape.

I don’t know, eat a hot dog or two.

The only moves I’m considering are selling O, which would need to weaken further, or selling YGE, which would need to strengthen, further.

Otherwise I’m enjoying the view, talking a bit of smack on the twitter hater network, and consuming baked beans straight from the crock pot. Like a good god damn.

I suggest you stow your space helmet, but keep it nearby in case of an impromptu launch, pinning us north of 1624 on the close.

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YOUR SPACE HELMUT, PUT IT ON

Note the light blue line at 1623.75, that is the origination of the big 06/29 long liquidation. I expect a test of this level soon, if not this week.

We traded up to this key level in globex while celebrating our country’s independence. Now all we have to do is hold this level while the cavemen in Africa volley motor shells and Molotov cocktails at one another.

Gentlemen, be patient, let the trading day progress, and above all, keep this level in the front of your mind for it is a launch pad. Lets see which side we close on. Godspeed America, god damned speed.

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Dropping a Few Bombs on My Way Out

You’ll hear reports this afternoon about how the market gave up its “POMO Pump” and how we’re going to hell in an Egyptian hand basket.  You’ll also read two or three articles speculating about Friday morning’s Employment Report.  Bears want a good number, odd no?  Did we close off the high of the day?  We did.  Did Fords!?  No.

On the surface, today did nothing.  If you sleep at night, and couldn’t care less about the picture our overnight markets paint, you awoke to a modest gap lower, you bought it, you ate a hoagie, and then you enjoyed capital appreciation, like a good American.

Completely aside, did you see the abortion protestors and their haters getting “Hail Satan” trending on twitter?  For a moment I thought UNXL reversed.  Protestors continually blow my mind…where does one find the time?  Then again I care about nothing.

AIXG started working today, finally.  I want to have a nice, stable, long term relationship with AIXG, none of this run and gun business.

O has several traders on the edge of their seats.  On one hand the stock is way oversold.  On the other hand, the momentum is yet to truly shift.  We’re in the courting stage where everyone’s nice but not being completely real, you know what I mean?  I’m yet to reach my initial profit target at 44.44.

ANGI looks so ready and I look forward to dropping bombs on the paraquat who called me a bag holder citing the .com bubble.  LOL

Z however, continues to be a bumpy ride.  I still like the look.

That’s all my thoughts.  Have a safe holiday everyone.  I love me some fireworks, but I never “hold the mortar tube.”  You shouldn’t either.

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

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