My skepticism is up, and futures are down as of this writing. Here are my notes thus far this week regarding some issues I’m tracking. My core thesis continues to be mobile web revolution social plays, but the damn indices won’t cooperate. It makes things I bit, shall I say, fun?
Anyhow I may have to cut a few names out. The following are my thoughts regarding my current social holdings and is based on my perception of speculator behavior in price aka voodoo:
TRIP: price action suggests time to slowly grind the souls of bears, like a Scottish serf landlord visiting daily the mock the exhausted farmer — think it holds > $40 and still like it as low as mid $36’s — I see $43.50 as a significant. The bears want to defend this price, if the don’t I expect new highs
LNKD: On the fritz. Today’s indecision is fair, given the implications for the bulls (FB IPO) and bears (valuation, hysteria, index weakness) — If the stock spends too much time below 105.50, espescially toward tomorrow’s close, I’m out. — Targeting a scale/profit taking between $119 – $122.50
Z: Morning strength quickly faded, looks poised for more pain — $40.15 is the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern dating back to the 05/03 earnings pop, would look for a mesured move lower in the name to complete itself at gap fill ~ $36.50 — Failed move lower needs to capture 42.50 shoulder top in short order for max squeeze — Cutting on a closing basis below $39.00
SVVC: target scale before $33 — cutting if < ~ 27.00 on closing basis — buy thrust this afternoon to close as doji was aggressive, want to see buyers show up in similar fashion again between $28.75 – $29.75
YELP: Really needs to hold above the 5/14 lows(~ $19.85). Bear still have the edge in price rotation — 21.50 I see as significant, sellers want to hold this line as they’ve done today and last week. — We could expect a battle for $23 if we break $21.50 — I start expecting lower prices should price spend too much time below $20.33
AMZN: Lacking direction, but digesting the earnings and maintaining higer valuation — appears rangebound between $221 and $229.50 — keep eye on sentiment and behavior bewtween $224.30 – $226.00 — Cutting on a closing basis, too much time in low $217’s
RAX: $49.30 is key support for bulls. It’s the price we gapped away from last February and site of primary breakout. I’m a seller below — watch for overhead supply concerns near $55.60, consider scaling
UPS: Want to see buyers defending the low $75.00, otherwise $71 becomes realisitc downside target — Looks awful for the bull case, with lots of overhead suppy concerns especially high $77.00’s
P: A bit stretched, but aggressive move higher from a base starting mid-April — Like being long unless bulls lose $8.75 — 05/17 Update: risk range low now low $9’s.
GSVC: Has gone nowhere since late January, range bound between low 16’s and low $19’s — trade accordingly. Give the bulls the edge above low $17’s
So that’s my price thoughts. I appreciate any feedback, unless it’s expressed dislike for the brevity above. This I don’t appreciate.