I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,425 Blog Posts

Got Money

Pandora lost less money than analysts expected and guided in line to slightly optimistic.  Have I mentioned how integral I think Pandora is to the mobilization of electronics experience?  Next time you’re running on the hamster wheel take a look at the iPhone strapped to the person next to you, IT’S PLAYING PANDORAH.  The stock is up 10% after hours and should be on your momo radars this quarter.

The rest of the social stocks breathed a collective sigh before the market made it’s grandiose afternoon comeback.  GRANDIOSE AFTERNOON COMEBACK uugh!  It feels like a sentiment shift.  Chess is keeping us honest posting his monthly SPY chart and the bulls certainly have their work cut out for them.  But as we trade into the holiday weekend, I suspect stocks will be accumulated with great vigor.

Just this morning I was considering taking my cash levels to unprecedented highs.  I wanted to see how we closed.  The closers came in and lifted the offer.

I caught the rip in TRIP because I was holding long and EXPE was helping out.  It’s on fresh highs and guess what stocks at their highs do?  They go higher exactly.  I like the name until we see some selling then I’ll scale off another 1/3.  My position is already down to 2/3 so I’m being patient with scaling.

Zillow ripped hard all afternoon.  It made my day as it closed nearly HOD.  Considering the downdraft it experience all last week, overdone IMO, the stock has room to run.  I’m targeting $45.50.

Amazon is holding on technically, but my thoughts on this movie streaming situation are mixed.  I need to better understand it and would appreciate anyone who cares to shed insight into the Paramount deal.

Going to see a big pop band tonight see yous later friends,

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Buying Facebook Just to Say So

I’ve seen several traders comment both today and yesterday about purchasing Facebook just to say they did it or were part of it.  I bought some yesterday in the $33’s and sold it today when it failed to hold the same level.  It was about a 2% loss on 3% of my assets so it cost me 6 basis points.  Oh the vanity.  We are all so intelligent, yet we commit our resources (money and metal) to trading something with very little in the way of a plan.  We are fucking clowns.  Well Chess isn’t, he’s Iceman this year.  I’m sure being his wingman in #12631 is enjoyable.

I can tell you without a doubt something you already know: social stocks chop dicks off.  Whose dicks said stocks choose to chop off depends on who is in control of the tape.  Sellers are in control of the tape thus social stocks are chopping buyers’ and investors’ dicks off.  How’s that for a syllogism?

How does one whether such storms?  Step aside or dollar cost average and pray for days where more buyers exist than sellers.  Because the flow continues to be sell sell sell.  There are sellers coming out of cellars.  They’re everywhere! Like zombies! Hysteria!

On a more composed note, at least we not seeing all stocks up, all stocks down dollar correlation hell trading.  I hate that shit.  It’s happening to a much smaller degree than last summer.  Eventually these companies have to trade on their own merits and when that happens many of the social names stand to appreciate in value.  Just be sure you have some dry powder stored to take advantage of the opportunity.

Current holdings, by weight:  AMZN, TRIP, ADS, UPS, P, YELP, and GSVC

I keep my dry power in cash and AWK

Remember to trade your plan.  And if you don’t have a plan, close your trading accounts.  And if you’re trading something for vanity and such, I got a better idea for you:  buy some shit at your nearest high-end retailer.  If you live in the po-dung regions of ‘merica, buy them fancy big ass tires for your pickup truck.  And some chrome bumper balls.


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If you are fortunate enough to have some cabbage on hand after last week’s calamity, you’ve come to the market when inventory is on sale.  Deals are already flying off the shelf.  Look at TRIP.  It’s not going to let you in.  And that’s fine.  Go buy some Coca Cola it’s a solid company and you can go about your daily malaise without heart issues, free from the whims of the market, and only troubled by red lights and such.  TRIP and them (sic) will test your meddle and you better have your finger on the trigger else be ZUCKED THE FUCK OUT.

Now Amazon on the other hand you may be better able to wrap your mind around its value.  It’s the gigantic superstore on the internet, and it looks like a good entry point today after pulling back last week.  Listen, the earnings growth from the company is impressive and they’re a great competitor in the tablet market.  They give Kindles away for free (disruption?) to entice you to shop with them MORE.  My friend, this is good business.

I initiated a buy of FB north of $33.00 based on 33 voodoo and nothing more.

When P turns green you can buy more, in my opinion.  Solid company, solid business model.  Wait for green close.

Finally, don’t take my advice blind, fool.  Do due diligence (doo doo?).

More later.  In comeback mode,

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Not Clever

For the last three weeks save for these last two trading days I’ve mocked the weakness of the indices as my social stocks continued to appreciate in value.  Well they caught up to the rest of the losers in a two day trading massacre.  The carnage is stunning.

I can say without a doubt my interactions with the godly folks of iBC saved my portfolio from complete shim sham Colombo destruction (I don’t even know what that means but it sounds devastating).  Chess highlighted RAX as a short while I was long.  It broke a key level I highlighted earlier this week and I didn’t hesitate to sell.  A massive murderhole avoidance.  Next was SVVC being sold north of $25.00 this morning after the sentiment turned downright nasty between iBC and Twitter.  I knew it was time to sell.  The community here is of serious value and I look back on my trading before such venues as the dark ages.  I thank each person committed to this social stock market communication game and salute your efforts.  I know sometimes it can seem like we’re talking in the wind, but the feedback loop here is top notch.

I cut exposure way down, and I’m sitting at nearly 60% cash and another 8% in AWK.  The stocks that in my view didn’t go full shit show in price are TRIP AMZN and P.  I kept my exposure and will very likely add to the names next week should we see constructive price activity.

I initiated ADS today.  The company is an integral piece of my thesis and I’m glad to get back into the name.  The price activity requires further analysis but on my intermediate timeframe I like where price is.  UPS is the other position I retain and consider critical to the future.  It has nearly wiped out its 2012 gains and is still suspect to lower prices.  However should it bounce next week I may add shares.

YELP and GSVC reminding everyone to play small, define your risk, and if you want them long term you give them tons of room the fuck around.  I can’t imagine being without GSVC though.  I like the companies they hold far too much.

Get your study on this weekend.  Build on any losses as learning experiences and keep your eyes out for opportunity.  It’s still out there.


I feel like Lily sums up my week here:

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Grabbing For Straws

Not much data or news out today to hang my social cap on.  Today a massive amount of money went risk off and the flows took money out of this highly speculative space fast.  The only bit of news supporting the cause today is the numbers out of CRM which are pushing share up as much as 8% after hours.

I’m not going to lie.  I took a beating to the P today.  Unlike WNR, my P took a metal rake to the tip.  Quite the punishment it was, but the stinging will wane.  LNKD needs to come out the gate strong tomorrow or I’m selling, raising cash, and battening down the hatches into the weekend. The wind and seas of the markets are certainly not at my back are chopping through my port like a wrecking ball.  All of this, with cash levels upped to 45% after selling RAX this morning nicely dodging one of today’s many murderholes.

I so very much enjoy the mobile/social/tech space and the thesis remains.  The issue at hand is this noisy IPO.  What price is it coming out at?  Oh, that’s right $38.00 big news.  Let’s repeat it hourly.  Against my better judgment I bought more SVVC today.  It has a short leash.  Not necessarily a price sensitive leash, but any misbehaving and it’s getting swung into a wall.  My Pomeranian wrecking ball.

Zillow is a buy on any strength.

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Always Waiting, Always Wanting

The socials are whispering to you very quietly.  They’re saying, “We’re the way of the future.  We gives not one shittith what the haters say.”  Should the indices stop receiving a daily homo hammer the whispers will turn to SHOUTS.  SHOUTS I TELL YOU.  Ehm…as you were.  What bulls need so very badly is an afternoon delight.  Something to take home and boast about.  Something that makes them want to go buy some houses and cars and shit SIGHT UNSEEN.  This hasn’t happened for some time.  A real ripper.

In lieu of such grandiose afternoon index appreciation, we must continue to expect nothing from the social stocks.  NOTHING I TELL YOU.  For what they giveth will be just as quickly snatched away.  And you will be left holding the chocolate banana (@MOOBER kills me with this).  Yes, TRIP, LNKD, YELP, and P are defying gravity.  Mocking shorts, all kinds.  But they too will have their down days.  I implore you to take scales, lighten up on the rips.  There will be many dips for which to accumulate.  It is game on in the social space.

Meanwhile, over in SVVC GSVC land, things are several shades darker.  Fucking fundraisers and shit.  I don’t like these names but consider them a necessary evil BECAUSE I WANT TO OWN TWITTER.  Not even because I want to own Facebook anymore.  That shit can be purchased direct starting Friday. My risk management says hold SVVC unless it’s committed to pricing below $27.  I don’t want to stick around to see what such activity may bring.  GSVC I’m in bed with.

RAX I want to tighten the leash on after Chess queued it onto his stocks to short watch list.  The stock is totally offering a low risk short entry and I don’t feel like averaging down into a long liquidation.  I’ll sell it tomorrow if it’s looking too red, and will buy it cheaper.  No big deal.

ZNGA looks dicey.  That’s all I can really say right now.

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How They Close

What we have witnessed this week can be frustrating.  With the broad market behaving so erratically and without conviction, it has been a grind of tight risk management.  This tape and how you manage it speaks volumes to your progress as a trader.  Find your spots and get involved with names you see value in.  Building a good month in these conditions means scaling off longs into rips in my opinion.  I don’t short individual issues and am yet to have conviction behind an index/sector short.  However, Mr. Cain Thaler is your go to source on the energy complex, and he’s been making one hell of a comeback as of late.

I came into today not expecting to take much action.  Last night I highlighted my risk management and most of it focuses on the closing action.  The close has been consistently week and I want to see a shift in this tendency before putting on more aggressive snap-back longs.  All I’ve done today is scale off 1/3 of TRIP, which was my largest position going into the session.

It’s been impressive to see P make progress to the upside.  As of this writing the stock is still hanging tough.  I want more P, but I’m reluctant to average up until we see a pullback and its treatment.  Depending on how you entered into the basing pattern, long speculators on the base are up ~30% which is comforting, dare I say at risk for complacency?  Don’t be surprised if we see profit taking later on today/this week.

The individual socials as a group continue to eek out upside.  The derivative names (SVVC and GSVC) are weak today but not yet threatening to the bull case.

It’s how they close that I’m focused on.

More on this later.

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Talking Price on Socials

My skepticism is up, and futures are down as of this writing. Here are my notes thus far this week regarding some issues I’m tracking. My core thesis continues to be mobile web revolution social plays, but the damn indices won’t cooperate. It makes things I bit, shall I say, fun?

Anyhow I may have to cut a few names out. The following are my thoughts regarding my current social holdings and is based on my perception of speculator behavior in price aka voodoo:

TRIP: price action suggests time to slowly grind the souls of bears, like a Scottish serf landlord visiting daily the mock the exhausted farmer —  think it holds > $40 and still like it as low as mid $36’s —  I see $43.50 as a significant. The bears want to defend this price, if the don’t I expect new highs

LNKD: On the fritz. Today’s indecision is fair, given the implications for the bulls (FB IPO) and bears (valuation, hysteria, index weakness) — If the stock spends too much time below 105.50, espescially toward tomorrow’s close, I’m out. — Targeting a scale/profit taking between $119 – $122.50

Z: Morning strength quickly faded, looks poised for more pain — $40.15 is the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern dating back to the 05/03 earnings pop, would look for a mesured move lower in the name to complete itself at gap fill ~ $36.50 — Failed move lower needs to capture 42.50 shoulder top in short order for max squeeze — Cutting on a closing basis below $39.00

SVVC: target scale before $33 — cutting if < ~ 27.00 on closing basis — buy thrust this afternoon to close as doji was aggressive, want to see buyers show up in similar fashion again between $28.75 – $29.75

YELP: Really needs to hold above the 5/14 lows(~ $19.85). Bear still have the edge in price rotation — 21.50 I see as significant, sellers want to hold this line as they’ve done today and last week. — We could expect a battle for $23 if we break $21.50 — I start expecting lower prices should price spend too much time below $20.33

AMZN: Lacking direction, but digesting the earnings and maintaining higer valuation — appears rangebound between $221 and $229.50 — keep eye on sentiment and behavior bewtween $224.30 – $226.00 — Cutting on a closing basis, too much time in low $217’s

RAX: $49.30 is key support for bulls. It’s the price we gapped away from last February and site of primary breakout. I’m a seller below — watch for overhead supply concerns near $55.60, consider scaling

UPS: Want to see buyers defending the low $75.00, otherwise $71 becomes realisitc downside target — Looks awful for the bull case, with lots of overhead suppy concerns especially high $77.00’s

P: A bit stretched, but aggressive move higher from a base starting mid-April — Like being long unless bulls lose $8.75 — 05/17 Update: risk range low now low $9’s.

GSVC: Has gone nowhere since late January, range bound between low 16’s and low $19’s — trade accordingly. Give the bulls the edge above low $17’s

So that’s my price thoughts.  I appreciate any feedback, unless it’s expressed dislike for the brevity above.  This I don’t appreciate.

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Swing For the Fences

Listen up.  If we are indeed range bound in the indices this summer the opportunity to swing your bat will be on social stocks.  I will hammer this message again and again, because you need to understand the importance of these stocks ripping higher.  They are America.  They are our latest innovation.  Remember everyone talking about our shift away from manufacturing and into service?  Well this is the shift’s first major biproduct.  A slew of social companies held together by the FB LNKD Twitter ecosystem.

It’s so major we have live coverage trumping the perils of Europe and the other backward hell holes of the world.  All eyes on our bell of the ball, dressed to impress.  Of course the action in the social space is relatively stronger than the rest of the market.  Where else can one speculate on new innovation occurring rapidly?  These companies are working.  Companies like TRIP, Z, YELP, LNKD, and ZNGA.

Do you think the migration away from computers isn’t a tectonic shift with massive implications?  If yes I no longer value your thoughts.  Be gone.  “$P a broken business model.” That sits like a Christmas fruitcake in my stomach mid-May.  Makes me sick you would spit such vile speak.  70% of their traffic is mobile.  I say no more.

Watch these indices.  They may not give us much more downside.  Is FB ripping for a month straight baked into price?  The company and its ancillaries are Wallstreet’s chance to cordially invite cash flows back into the game.  They’ll pitch the story until they’re pink in their fat crumb spewing faces.  Is FB defying gravity all summer cooked into the price of GSVC and SVVC?  No.  Remember both hold Twitter, a site superior FB.

Should we trade lower, and believe me it could happen: buy the blood.  But please, have a plan.  Have some risk management Mr. Hero.  My chips say long, I retain about 30% cash to employ on weakness, and may raise cash into the weekend.  All of this sentiment and more could change literally on a dime, so you know.  It’s choppy out there sure, but we could be range low.

PS:  FIO is now shitting the bed.  Don’t extrapolate this out to the entire space, that chart was getting way ahead of itself to the upside.


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Fashionably Late

Sometimes I get phone calls from friends like, “Brah it’s 11:30 when are you getting your ass over here?” to which I reply, “Ga’head, I’m caught up, eating lamb shanks and sipping my favorite cab.”  I know I can sashay over to the club late night, have a few cocks and get my social fill (no homo).  I approach going out in such a manner for three reasons; I bore easily, I don’t enjoy nightclub drinking marathons, and the action is most interesting late night.  Perhaps I miss some early fun, but my vision is clear.

Now imagine owning some of these social stocks whose prices have gone to shit over the last quarter.  Imagine holding through that mess.  Puke.  These proverbial bag holders are so underwater they may not be thinking clear.  They may have the beer goggles on, eyeballing Mark Zuck and getting all Travolta gay in their heads.  All I’m trying to emphasize here is DON’T FORGET TO SCALE SOME PROFITS INTO THIS WEEKS HYPE.  If you’re Johnny-come-lately like the well timed traders residing in the godly halls of iBankCoin (GHiBC) and you’ve been reading my twits and shits, you likely have more clear vision.  You may tip your hat to Mr. Zuck, complement his hoodie, and enjoy the bottle service he’s sent your way.

Is this move in socials a one week hysteria?  NO.  But you can be skinned in more ways than one.  The move stocks like Z YELP TRIP LNKD and P will make over the next few years will be impressive, some stocks better than others.  But I promise you there will be bumps along the way.  Keep being smooth, take what the market gives you.  Build a day, build a month, build a quarter.  And if you want my advice on being smooth, follow me ova @twosmuth.

Finally, ZNGA is currently the largest cash flow stream for Facebook.  Are their games as cool as Wolfenstein 3D?  If you’re 30 and live in your parent’s basement, no.  To your mom and 12 year old girls, they’re leaps ahead in awesomeness.  Look for this stock to make a higher low.

Speaking of smooth:

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