You Overreact Because You Are Human

“I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.” – Elder Raul

I knew ONVO had gone too far.  That was part of the reason my position was scaled down to runner size.  But did I expect the moronic momentum crowd to panic?  No, but I should know better.

People overreact…to everything.  I have always despised this characteristic.  For a long time this resulted in anger—anger which peaked daily during my commute across town.  My soul belongs on European roadways where a clear expectation is in place to pass and get over.  Instead I reside in a metropolis of underfunded civil projects, crawling on my belly across roadways designed by engineering misfits, and nobody cares about highway etiquette.

Everyone overreacts when they drive.  I suppose that is the point I am failing to make here.  Same goes for ONVO traders, they overreacted—both ways—like idiots.  You have to spot the dimwits of the world and avoid them entirely.  I will hold my ONVO runner, back to cost basis, $5.75, and patiently wait for all of these imbeciles to clear the roadway before committing more capital.

The chicken trade is alive and well.  PPC waited until there were no farmers on the horizon, and crossed the road.  My second largest position has been unscathed through this most recent terror.

You cannot tell me you like the AMBA daily chart.  It is not that I think my trade is wrong, but rather that we are seeing what could potentially be a nasty false breakout which may preclude a fast breakdown.  I have my guard up.  My largest position is precariously toeing a narrow line.

Walter is coming in close to my risk levels here.  I am eyeball-to-eyeball with the man in the black pajamas.  My third largest position has resorted to trench-style positioning.  Buyers need to dig in here or their ranks will be overrun.

BALT has a weekly chart like I have not seen in months.  It is brilliant and I would make plans to board this boat if I was not already properly stowed in a cozy stateroom.  I only have ½ size here.  Remember when I ripped 10% out of this name a few weeks back?  I am waiting to size back on.  It needs to inspire me, like Elon.

TSLA was up but I am not overwhelmed with gay pride.  We saw sound CEO 2.0 action yesterday and today with Elon Musk blasting out an updated warranty and flexing his technological muscles via an over-the-air update to all his cars.  No big deal.  You homos are in the presence of greatness with this product and you are not showing the respect that is due.  I still want more shares.  I wonder if I can use some $BCOIN to hire an economic hit man off the tor network?  Because truth be told, I would forego eating for a week to procure some sub $100 TSLA shares.

Everything else is a nonevent until it is.  Avoid the noise, stay laser focused on the signal.

The index markets continued lower overnight, extending the move made yesterday afternoon.  The question now is whether the news driven selling from yesterday has created more overhead supply then can be handled.  This would result in value migrating lower and washing out last week’s progress.

Should a short-covering type rally occur today, I would expect it to run up to about 3394 on the NASDAQ futures.  If the action is able to sustain trade above 3394, the expectation is for buyers to target 3405 where I suspect we will see the effects of overhead supply from the Friday-to-Monday action.

Price is slippery below due to the thin profile structure we are working inside of.  It would not surprise me to see trade back down to last Wednesday morning’s trade, before the surge in prices.  Should this occur, I will be using the low volume node at 3360 as support to lean on.  Should we see price accepted below this level it would suggest a major sentiment shift away from all of last week’s action.

Our early clue to whether bulls can reassert intermediate term trend force will be the overnight low volume node at 3383.75.  Sellers hold the short term and overnight trend control.  Stay tuned to the midday report for insight into day control.

I have highlighted these levels, as well as a few scenarios on the following market profile charts:

Month:  November

Day(s) of Terror: 1 2

If you find yourself staring down the barrel of an anti-momentum ray gun, with losses being sprayed all over you face and chin, fret not oh wet one.  Every honest speculator who graduated from QE University knows you get TWO DAYS MINIMUM of sheer terror per month.

They keep you H honest.

As you can imagine, my book is down today, 3% to be precise.  The reasons are multipronged, from the dick handlers at Morgan Stanley to the collective short sellers, the royal short seller if you will, to the news which came from Mr. Icahn while I was eating a late day taco.

Funny little bit of commentary really, I was short the NASDAQ futures for over two hours today, from noon to like 2:30pm, with my fingers sore from hovering inches above the hotkey to close my position.  It was a scalp gone terribly awry.  I kept my focus and was able to ride through some noise to get some profit on the trade.  I closed it perhaps 5 minutes before the whole shit house went up in flames.  Instead of riding my steed to glory I was soliciting street meat.  Truth be told I would never hold through that entire move lower but I certainly could have extracted a few hundred more pesos.

GOGO caught a downgrade from Redcoat Simon Flannery today and went spiraling lower.  It was only a matter of time, in days, before either a British air raid or any other hit piece sent GOGO lower.  If you bought shares of GOGO the minute they gapped up post earnings, you are still up a cool 11% right now.  I commend you for flying in my ranks.  Let me sum this up so we can move on—Paul Revere was not around to warn us about the British coming.  Flannery has been covering telecom for over 20 years.  He is old and will be in the diaper long before me.  Morgan Stanley downgrading AMBA was an opportunity to buy.  So is this.

I closed SFM, AAPL, and YGE.  I only like one of those companies beyond a trading vehicle.  This lifted cash a tad over 20% to allow me entry into better pictures.

I bought more WLT, this is the look I like right here.  This is now my third largest position, behind AMBA and PPC.  The chicken don is still poised to ARISE.

Finally let us discuss TSLA.  It is coming in on me and I am thrilled.  May it rally to bring in some dumb money and then fail hard into year-end.  Then zombie chart.  Then you will all turn your gay commentary to another CEO so I can have Elon all to myself.  That’s when I go full size.  Until then, or upon further notice, I am patiently waiting to add more exposure.  We have to kill off the hot money studs.

Today was my day to make money actively and I didn’t.  Now I have to just sit here and brood.  I call it getting my Ryan Gosling on.

Overnight was fairly quiet in the Composite futures where the main feature was a rotation higher in the early hours, around 4 am.  The pulse higher was effective in erasing a slow and balanced drift lower, but it also put the market into overbought territory on the very short term.  Early on, perhaps even premarket, my expectation is for sellers to work price lower a bit before we see an attempt at another rotation higher.

I have envisioned two scenarios for today, both which expect value to be built upon our existing and fragmented profile structure.  Should we press beyond these envisioned profiles and accept price beyond their range that would be an early cue this week that sentiment has shifted.

You can see my vision along with levels to monitor on the following market profile charts:

I joined the 100% club this week with shares of ONVO. One can never be certain how high a stock price can go. This is one reason I advocate scaling out. I booked 2/3 of my position throughout the run, but here I am, continuing to ride the wave.

We haven’t even had our first pullback yet since exploding out of that multiple month consolidation. Perhaps the stock comes back on me and suddenly is only up 50 or 25 percent. And that will likely be an excellent buy opportunity.

I have so many shares of the GOGO it makes me feel brawny. I have wanted this company for months, months I tell you. I couldn’t buy them, just like you can’t buy shares now, because the price was too high. Remember The Fly nailing the move from ten to sixteen? I had to watch the stock for almost a month, adamantly, waiting for my stubborn entry. I put good time into getting my entry. This market is going to need to commit some heinous acts to take my shares away. I call it catch me if you can investing.

I had a fantastic week last week trading the /NQ. This week I gave most of it back. I will be completely honest with you, people of the internet, it’s because I deviated from my plan. I didn’t even see it happening until last night. I corrected course and finished green today.

Stringing two weeks of profit together is something I’m yet to accomplish in the futures. When it happens, I’m taking a week off and declaring victory.

The swing port is up a healthy 25% on the year. Sure I could have bought and held the index and outperformed but where is the glory in that? My goal is to press out 8% more and wrap up the year a lovely 33% in the green. That’s why I hunt these stocks like an Aztec ninja.

My positions are plenty, they’ve done nothing wrong. Now it’s just a matter of them doing something right.

Enjoy your weekend and congrats to all my trading comrades on a solid week.

http://youtu.be/XXW84v_m50Y

The overnight markets caught a rotation higher and are currently showing balanced trade.  I have highlighted what I consider likely scenarios for today’s session in the NASDAQ on the right-hand market profile chart below.

I use the 24 hour profile to envision trade and get an idea of the overall structure of the markets.  With electronic trading occurring nearly 24 hours per day, it makes sense to capture this data and give it weight.

On the left-hand chart I highlight key price levels and zones where an event occurred during regular trading hours.  These events are caused by other time frame (OTF)  traders who enter the market.  The other time frame is not operating on a day-trade time frame, but instead a longer term.  Should their actions be negated by an opposing other time frame, it would suggest sentiment has shifted.

I have primarily highlighted the work accomplished by OTF buyers on today’s market profile and will monitor these levels/zones throughout the session to determine how the market is feeling into the weekend.

Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:

AMBA, PPC, AAPL, GOGO, RVLT, TSLA, LO, YGE, WLT, SFM, BALT, CREE, F, ONVO, FXY, TWTR, MJNA, and O

Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT