iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

Roll Out The Guns

I am having a rather stellar day considering the circumstances surrounding today’s tape.  It goes to show, the world, it does not start and stop when the media presses their negative agenda.  They are losing their power to sway the masses, likely due to the influence of Twitter alone.

Misinformation is the name of the game, and you’re either providing it or consuming it, so get on the Twitter platform and promote the news that best advances your agenda.  This is very simple and one of the oldest power methods known to man, the pen.

Finishing that thought, I finally added back some exposure to TWTR stock.  I have been participating since the IPO, when I bought the public print, bought the drift lower, and sold most of my shares in the high $60s. 

Are we out of the woods with this international scuffle yet?  No.  But we are seeing individual names showing big gains and merger rumors have sent my shares in LO parabolic.  Should I sell the rumor?  I think not, for this is my play on the generational shift away from smoked plant matter and into vaporized airplane deicer.  Get with the times, brah vape up.

The drake trade is behaving like a mild mannered Canadian—apologizing when it wasn’t his fault and shit.  I love my neighbors to the north, and given their kindness in allowing me to size back into my MARCH MADNESS pick after already scaling some handsome profits, I donned the Fiddler on The Roof avatar to commend this trade.

The selling is accelerating as I type, likely fueled by panicked talks on telemundo.  I trade from inside the concrete walls of ignorance, and things over here are going swimmingly.  Speaking of concrete walls, let’s turn our attention to ballistics.  Do you know who has pathetic ballistics and armour?  Russia.  Do you know who out guns USA on almost every front?  China, friends.

Therefore, a flight to the Japanese Yen for safety is a fool’s endeavor.  One would be safer storing their value in reams of printed out block chains.  These are strange times we live in and they require even stranger character traits to extract profit. 

The LED trade, I am sure of this, is making an earnest attempt to bore everyone to submission.  You should quit, we need more quitters so I can finally take stocks like CREE, RVLT, OESX, and LEDS to the promise land.

We are still in intermediate term balance, and basically this entire session has been noise since the first 4 minutes of trade (the opening swing).  It’s all about how we close’em.  If I ate popped corn, now would be a good time for it.  I am longer then when I started the day, but otherwise reserving a bit of powder for more terror and ultra-violence.

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Contextual Dose to Hunt Balance

The first day of the month is statistically favorable to the bulls in both the SPY and the QQQ.  People have written entire books about this stat, divulging in great detail all of the first day of the month scenarios and holding periods.  One of the findings of the study [spoiler alert!] is when the first day of trade for a new month falls on a Monday, the upside results are greatest.  The study also showed a 4 day holding period from the close before month end yields the most favorable results.  This is why you likely saw many traders pressing their longs into a cold war weekend.

Thus, to come to market this morning with price trading out of range, out of value from last Friday’s action puts the market dangerously out of balance.  We still have an hour and 20 minutes to at least return inside yesterday’s range which would slightly reduce the risk/reward environment, but as it stands we are set to open out of balance.

This presents a unique opportunity situation for the intraday trader.  The volatility will allow a disciplined trader to either end their day rather quickly or see several high probability trade setups during the day.  Either way, this type of environment gives much quicker feedback as to whether your trade choices are right or wrong.  As for existing positions, it makes sense to give more weight to the close than the open.  Let the imbalance get slugged out for several hours to allow some signal to show up through the noise.

Context is more important than ever in this environment, as we do not want to lose sight of the big picture.  The long term is still controlled by the buyer.  This can be seen as a series of higher highs and lows on a daily chart of the NASDAQ composite.  Buyer control of the long term was questioned by the market in early February.  The outcome was a sharp, snapback rally which affirmed demand to be strong and pressed prices to new highs.  A new test of this control would be price trading to 4100 on the $COMPQ index.

The intermediate term is in balance.  This balance spans 75.5 hours of regular trading hours which dates back to the afternoon of 02/13 when we blasted out of prior balance and went exploring higher.  A series of higher highs and lows degraded into balance ahead of last Friday where we attempted to move up and out.  After a failed auction at the new highs, price aggressively reverted back into the intermediate term balance.  After such a move, my expectation is for price to test the lower extreme using the velocity of the failed move to propel us lower.  I have highlighted this action as well as some key levels inside balance on the following volume profile chart:

NQ_VolumeProfile_intermediateTerm_03032014b

In the short term, sellers are pressing value lower of the last two distributions.  Their most recent thrust lower was rejected and a bit of a snack back rally has shown up in the early hours.  I have highlighted a few scenarios for this morning, one which sees sellers retaining their grip of the market via being the only active participant (orange) and another potential scenario which sees more balancing occur via a two timeframe marketplace (green).  I have highlighted these observations and a few more on the following market profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_03032014

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GIGAFACTORY

If we are really seeing an increase of Russia/Ukraine media coverage [note: media coverage because the reality is always not what it seems] then where should your money be?  Come’on this is an easy question, OK I make it easier: in what country?

You have two choices really, but one is CANADA!  Canadians are free to roam the world in the name of beer, hockey, and moose.  Nobody gets mad at the Canadians buddy!  Hence why I added back the BBRY calls I scaled off earlier this week.  I am attempting to play BBRY like a delightful little fiddle while sitting on a hot tin market rooftop.

I took all sorts of odd trades today.  When it was all said and done, I am very long and here is my book:

Options [calls] – Z, VJET, SINA, ANGI, GOGO, FSLR, BBRY, BAC

Stocks – HEMP, PHOT, TWTR, GRNH, RGSE, EXK, TSLA, OESX, CUDA, ENPH, VJET, LEDS, ONVO, CREE, LO, RVLT

Any one of those names could be the next headline pumper.  They all still present a unique set of circumstances which merit my attention.  Elon Musk intends to build a GIGAFACTORY, powered by the wind and sun, which builds battery packs using 100s of little robot servants and about 600 employees, but he is not the most progressive thinker in modern business.  I truly hope this stock never pulls back enough to allow me reentry, and that I only ride my modest position to $1000.  If that means getting a solid capitulation from Douglas Kass, then the millennials achieve a major win on Wall Street.

The LED trade has been dead money for many quarters.  I have been in most of these stocks for many quarters.  Many quarters…it’s enough to bore the meek out.  Not me, for I am shameless and willing to patiently wait for this macro juggernaut to hit the tape.  Generational shift.  Do you think Elon will be putting god damn high pressure sodium bulbs up in the high bays of his future factory?  Not a chance in hell.  Natural light harvesting and LEDs are the only light sources appropriate to modern man.

We need to see financials strong next week to get us out of intermediate term balance.  Market participants were flung back into the thick of balance this afternoon after we failed to auction higher.  The classic 1 tick.  When you see that, and the weekend is fast approaching, get your guard up.  AND PLEASE, stop whining about algorithms and make one you whining whiners.  Man I hate whining.  STOP WHINING.

If people would take the time to learn the fundamentals of auction theory and then apply them for better or worse in real time, they would never again be surprised or disgusted by the path price takes through time.  There is a beautiful harmony to the markets, and it is driven by the laws of physics in a very simple manner. There are about 100 posts where I apply market profile, in real time. Just click the category “Market Profile” on the right-hand side of this post. You may not see the categories from our mobile site.

Finally, I have a hard time with goodbyes.  They reveal how much of an influence you can have on people and the impact of your presence.  Be grateful for the people you see often, for one day it will all change.  Raul is changing with the calendar.

Time to leap

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Watch The Banks

I am seeing big bank charts setting up across the board.  I took a rather sizable position in my favorite look, which is on BAC.

Should the financials get rocking here, it would be the stage three rocket boosters needed to blast us out.  Then it would be time to bank the coin.

If you buy big bank stocks because of this post, your accounts will be frozen until you report to your local NSA department, and you may lose money.

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Navigating The Stratosphere

One of the joys with mapping and tracking balance is you come to moments in the market where then hunt is nearly complete.  Throughout this week, we have been tracking our intermediate timeframe control because it was a very visible development which merited our attention.  We know the long term timeframe is controlled by the buyer, but intermediate term has been in a state of balance spanning back to February 13th.  The intermediate term continues to be in balance, as we are at the upper extreme.  From here, we can either launch into space, or fall victim to constant force of gravity which would lurch us back to the mean.  This is indeed an elevated risk environment.  I have highlighted the intermediate term balance on the following volume profile chart:

NQ_VolumeProfile_intermediateTerm_02282014_monthEnd
The short term is controlled by the buyer.  We successfully tested lower yesterday and once the market found a solid bid it went on an exploration higher.  The result was a new swing high and value migrating just a bit higher.  Value has not yet made a new swing high, though, which is a point we set on 02/24 right at 3700.  Big round numbers tend to behave in a unique manner, 3700 is no exception.  It is my pivot for intraday action today.  I have made some short term observations and envisioned a few scenarios on the following market profile chart of the NASDAQ composite:

NQ_MarketProfile_02282014_monthend

Finally, I think it is even more important today to watch the lagging S&P 500, which has significantly more room to run higher, in the short term.  A key component of this occurring will be strength in the transports and financials.  I have made a few short term observations of the SPX on the following market profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_02282014_monthend

 

 

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Pressing Hot Momentum Stocks

I have this fascination with loading more work onto my person when the load is already nearing capacity.  Should I be taking short dated option positions into perhaps the busiest Friday of my professional career?

No señor

There often comes a time when you must decide where to allocate your resources.  When you speculate, this time is 5-6 times per day and remember, no position is a position, too.  There are other resources, though.  Precious ones like time.  I only have one set of eyes and need more.

I have sustained myself on three snicker bars today, my thoughts, they are shit.

I am pressing the envelope with my long exposure, riding several hot names through an even hotter marketplace.  Perhaps this keeps me warm while I navigate the treacherous arctic roads of Michigan.  It’s aggressive momentum trading or booze I suppose.

Top stocks into Friday’s trade: RVLT (still? Yes), ENPH, and BAC which I do not own.

I saw a smart, young whippersnapper on Twitter buying BAC into the close today.  I like that trade.  It beats fighting the tape, like Douglas Kass.

Regarding March madness: It is looking like a neck and neck race between BBRY and SZYM.  Drake needs some Tim Horton’s in the morning to get the energy flowing.

TBD

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From False Moves Come Fast Moves

Yesterday price in the NASDAQ composite stretched to a new swing high.  We poked up above and no follow through occurred.  One of our favorite trades as of late has been the false bear technical patterns.  This means, we wait for a technical chart setup which favors the bears occurs, then we watch to see if it follows through.  If it doesn’t, then you pile in, essentially calling the sell flow’s bluff.  The moves occurring after false moves are often vicious. The effect may be similar into the close of this week, should the sell flow continue overpowering demand.

It will be a more difficult task however, for the long term control of the market is controlled by the buyer.  This can be seen as a series of higher highs and lows on the daily and weekly charts of the NASDAQ composite.  It has been a resilient bull, and it certainly is an aging bull, but it’s still a bull until proven otherwise.

Intermediate term, we have a solid balancing act occurring.  This balance area continues to grow, and I continue to profile it for our benefit.  The intermediate term can be seen transitioning from buyer control to balance when a series of higher highs and higher lows became sloppy and now we are seeing indecision.  I have highlighted some interesting levels on the following micro composite of intermediate term balance:

NQ_VolumeProfile_intermediateTerm_02272014

The short term timeframe is controlled by sellers.  They have successfully pressed price and value lower since yesterday’s new swing high and have successfully negated the buying tails we have seen on recent market profiles.  We are set to open inside range, slightly inside value as of this post, which presents a medium risk intraday environment.  If price can sustain above 3675 we would negate the seller control on the short timeframe shift to a balanced focus.  Otherwise, I am preparing for a test of intermediate term extremes to ensure buyers are still as confident as they were on 02/13.  I have highlighted these observations on the following market profile chart:

 

NQ_MarketProfile_02272014

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Thank You Market

They used to make this soundboard of Arnold Schwarz….here it is http://www.crocopuffs.com/soundboard/arnold.html

Something hit the tape this afternoon and sent the futures and many stocks spiraling lower, off their strong days.  I ended the day still very green, and added some risk into the selling.  On the surface, I am surprised by the sellers.  I will need to take a closer look, but they managed to hold off an afternoon snapback rally more than I anticipated.

We may see an interesting closing to the week.  But if you’re stomaching some draw downs and thinking of capitulating, know your levels well.  Know where the trade is wrong and be sure it is good and wrong before you sell.  This is posturing ahead of month end, and it could be a shakeout.

Monday is a new month.  Remember that.  Also, Monday, Raul takes everything to the next level.

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Buying Into The Teeth of Fake Selling

It’s all fake, you get this yet?  They want your shares, especially your top shares which you picked up when they were “bottom bitches” cast aside by the rest of the investor class.

We are in the middle of a neutral print right now, the most delicious and powerful market profile concept known to me.

Time for ramp capital to come to work.

Top picks into the bell: ANGI, ENPH, and FSLR

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Timeframe Roundup

Long term directional timeframe remains in the controlling hand of the buyer, who has been successful in their campaign for higher prices.  This can be seen as a series of higher highs and higher lows on both the weekly and daily charts of the NASDAQ composite.

The intermediate term is still balanced.  Yesterday we printed a lower high verse Monday’s session, and also a lower low.  Interestingly, the lower low was early in the session and was met with strong responsive buying.  However, not enough initiating buy flow came to push a new high.  Instead we printed a lower high and ultimately a higher low coiling before closing.  We can see the market struggling to make a vertical move out of our intermediate term balance on the following volume profile chart.  Should the intermediate term control dictate market direction today, we may see sellers targeting yesterday’s low at 3668.25 and then the low volume node at 3656.75.  I have highlighted this level on the following volume profile chart:

NQ_VolumeProfile_intermediateTerm_02262014

The short term is in buyer control.  Yesterday looks like an ugly candle print on a normal bar chart, but when you view the auction that took place via market profile, you can see the buyers were responsive at the lows and their flow was dynamic enough to press prices up out of our distribution.  Since then, they have held us above yesterday’s distribution and formed balance [acceptance] in our uppermost distribution.  To solidify the buyer control of the short timeframe, buyers need to hold us above yesterday’s value area either by rejecting attempts into the zone, or by avoiding it entirely.  I have highlighted this buyer goal on the following market profile chart:

 

NQ_MarketProfile_02262014

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