iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,080 Blog Posts

Well shoot—IndexModel is bearish

Closed out my SQQQ position last Monday, locking in the about -20% loss but felt victorious after seeing that big rally happen. Bids held up the market until mid-Wednesday. Chop and downside was the theme into the weekend. I’ve been running around in the woods, stirring up a bit of unrest amongst the nearby farmers as I seek a clear picture of the American Dream. All-in-all this idle time in the woods has me feeling a bit like Cougar (Top Gun, 1986) unable to reengage. Now my terminal is telling me it has radar lock and the beeping won’t stop until I click the buttons to take the shot.

We’re really in the meat of it all now aren’t we? Fed Chairman J.Powell is due out Monday at 8am and that alone is enough to unsettle the speculator class. What in the name of fixed-up banking could be urgent enough to call attention second thing Monday morning? This wasp has something to say and the timing robots do too—all while autumn is taking a turn into darkness, the spiders are pressing into the warm shelter of Mothership and the big vote, that nilla wafer’s worth of democracy, is in the oven.

There is a joker in the deck this week. Daddy-o Elon, mankind’s last hope for a technocratic future, is set to report earnings Wednesday over at his main outfit Tesla. Enough obsession is given to the man and his prospects that his numbers might be enough to turn the whole damned equity complex.

Bearish until we hear what Dad has to say. Will initiate a fresh SQQQ some time Monday.

Raul Santos, October 18th, 2020

And now for this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy.


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.10, neutral*. Choppy Monday, then look for sellers to take control of the tape, working price lower into the weekend.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] BEARISH bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big gap up and rally Monday. Consolidation Through Wednesday morning then selling pressure for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed rotations. Staples and Utilities seeing inflows, suggesting an increase in risk aversion.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows muted, but skewed slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Mixed Signals until Tuesday

IndexModel is flagging RCS bearish for the first time since June 14th. The current Exodus bullish overbought cycle runs through end-of-day Monday. With these signals crossed my convictions remain low. However I more heavily weight the reading from IndexModel therefore I am coming into the week slightly bearish and my bearishness will increase into Tuesday.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors continue leg up, Transports continue balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports remain balanced.

See below:

Semiconductors are holding onto and continuing their discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling rose colored sunglasses. This bearish bias suggests subtle decay under the surface of otherwise strong indices. Calls for price to move lower over the next five trading days.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows.” – Epictetus

Trade simple, always be learning

Comments »

I was wrong, stayed wrong and I am sorry

I have been plagued by overconfidence my entire life. There was nothing wrong with the bearish call I made several weeks back. It had an okay foundation. Not great, but a helluva lot better than some of the structures I’ve seen built by other speculators. But dammit, errors beget more errors and my first error was tuning out a few weeks ago and resting on the laurels of my convictions without monitoring the systems that brought me to a place of consistency.

Instead I headed out east and spent three days on the hunt for red October. I became more fascinated with the color red than is perhaps normal, wandering up the gentle hills of Vermont seeking visual treasure and perhaps a bit of spiritual enlightenment.

Which is fine as long as I pull up Exodus and check out what the thousands of sensors Le Fly has positioned throughout the global financial complex are seeing. The Fly built a fucking machine that doesn’t blink. It doesn’t waste time, reading the opinions of traders or thumbing through instagram videos. It stays on task and I didn’t even have the decency to show up and listen to the thing. This is not fine.

On Monday night, September 28th, Exodus tipped its hand, not-so-subtly inferring that bulls were back in the driver’s seat. Part of me was paying attention but apparently not enough to correct my position:

Okay enough of this loathing. A man’s life is too brief to spend any more time hosting a pity party. I am out of position and the last ten trading sessions have affirmed that beyond reasonable doubt. Come Monday I will cut the wretched SQQQ position I took on several weeks back. As of now it sits down a cool -19.48% and I suspect it could be worse by Monday morning.

I will work Monday and perhaps Tuesday but then I am going into the woods to help Elder Raul do some lumber jacking.

There is so much I’d like to say about Michigan being at the epicenter of another national news story, about these bugaloo bunyon and the other butt fuck boys, but I will simply state that it does not surprise me they were operating up here in the murder mitten. I traverse these lands far and wide, moving rocks and wood in a wheel-like manner from the main sprocket Detroit. I encounter these “militia” psychos constantly. They are a dumb and depraved, angry lot, tailgating and flying big flags with snakes and swear words and the like. They want to be left along, yet they fly giant flags…figure that one out. Pair that with an intelligent and strong female governor, leading a state split right down the middle politically, and you have the michelin recipe for extremism.

Your humble boy Raul is an extremist of sorts, bent on never working for anyone, and for that matter, working as little as possible. I’d rather read books and sit by the warm glow of a fire. Or swim laps. Or cavort around the city spreading cheer. This state breeds extremists, man.

So that’s it. I had a sound reason to be bearish. I neglected all the signals at my disposal telling me my reasoning was wrong. Then I committed the fatal error of staying wrong. If it were not for my risk management, this could have been a major disaster. I am sorry. It feels shitty being out of position and I’ll do my absolute best to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

Raul Santos, October 11th, 2020

And now, here is this week’s Strategy Session. Enjoy:


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.7, medium bull*. Expect a calm drift through the beginning of the week. Then watch the big bank earnings out Wednesday morning to put some upward motion to index prices.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered, see Section V

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Calm and upward through mid-Tuesday, then a sharp sell into Tuesday close. The rest of the week was a strong rally.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Strong, sector-wide rotation upward.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish with a broad spectrum of industry groups faring well.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Exodus tipped its hand on September 28th

Really upset to have missed the big Hybrid Change % move that happened back on September 28th. That was the subtle statistic that should have made any bearish convictions vanish.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors new leg up, Transports stay balanced

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are above their pivot point, nestled in their multi-year range.

See below:

Semiconductors negated that island top candle we’ve been watching for the last few weeks and began a fresh leg of discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling extreme rose colored sunglasses. This bias calls for a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

VI. Exodus hybrid overbought

On Monday, October 5th Exodus flagged hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Monday, October 19th end-of-day.

The performance of each major index thus far is shown below:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When you’re among peaceful, generous, happy people, you’re inclined to feel happy and peaceful yourself.” – Thubten Yeshe

Trade simple, surround yourself with kind and virtuous peers

Comments »

Out of sync // headed to Vermont

About two or three weeks back I started feeling off, cognitively. I have been out of position since, mentally. I haven’t had a good sit in a while, and to be frank I’ve been working too hardt.

That is why in an hour I am scheduled to have my nose hole probed and mucus submitted for COVID-19 testing. Packing up my shit and heading to Vermont after that. To chase the fall colors. The hunt for red October, if you will.

I haven’t escaped the fish tank since February and I feel sick in the brain.

Physically I have the vegetarian strength of 10 flesh eaters. Every morning a wake up with a cock as hard as angle iron that serves as an alarm clock around 5:45am. I fast until about 10am then take coffee like I take women; hot, Black and strong. My sinuses are so clear, my sense of smell so acute I can tell which neighbor is doing laundry by the stench of their exhaust. I can smell a cigarette smoker five cars ahead. My hair and beard are long and my skin is olive. My poops cut off so cleanly I needn’t wipe. My urine is clear and the whites of my eyeballs are hauntingly bright. My muscles are all shiny and curvy and nestled in the perfect amount of body hair.

But my mind is off.

Therefore I need to head into the woods and sit and listen to the way the wind bends the trees. Maybe eat some mushrooms and share a table with the pagan gods. LEGALIZED IT.

No trading until then. Also no Sunday Exodus Strategy Session because I will not be back from the woods until mid-week.

Until then, I remain long my fastidiously groomed selection of true corporate leadership: TSLA, TWTR, SQ, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, BYND and so on.

Also I have a giant anchor holding said fastidious portfolio in place (or worse) via SQQQ. I may cut the rope on that one from the road. You’ll have to follow me on Noble Jack’s Twitter for that update (@indexmodel).

Until we correspond again, I remain.

curiously,

Raul Santos, September 30th, 2020

 

Comments »

No edge for Raul but here is Tuesday trading plan

Quick note: After bears were trounced yesterday and with month-end/quarter-end only two days out, my bearish convictions have been called into question  at a time when the likelihood of a big move is high. I have no edge statistically, and my perception is off. Today we have a gap down in range and normally I would fade this gap higher, but I will not be participating. Now back to your regularly scheduled trading plan.

-Raul Santos, September 29th 2020

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the second-to-last day of Q3 with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was steady last night, gently pressing up beyond the Monday high until about 10pm New York. From then onward the rotation was lower. At 8:30am advance good trade balance data came out mixed, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a pro gap up opening up at levels unseen since September 16th. The morning was spent attempting lower. Sellers drove down into the opening bell then held the mid on three attempts at it. Each time sellers made a slightly lower low, but not much progress. Around 12:30pm, after failing three times to take out the September 16th low, buyers stepped in and reclaimed the mid then continued higher, pressing neutral. We ended the day on the highs, tagging the September 16th naked VPOC right during the closing ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,395.50. Buyers take out overnight high 11,448.75 clearing the way for a run up to 11,480.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 11,333.75 and tag 11,311.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers take out the Monday low 11,226.25 setting up a Friday gap fill down to 11,135.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

 

Comments »

Pro gap up into final days of September, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. After a two way auction from Globex open until about 10pm a steady campaign higher took hold. Price has rallied unidirectional up since, and as we approach cash open price is hovering inside the upper quadrant of the 09/17 range (two Thursday’s back).

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Recall last week started with a big down gap then lots of chop. Price chopped higher through Tuesday then lower until Friday morning. Then a big trend up Friday and into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up. The day began with a pretty wide and choppy two-way auction, chopping all over the midpoint several times before around 10:20am when buyers took control of the tape. From then on we were trend up, ending the week just below the weekly high and near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze on the open, squeezing up to 11,442.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,135.25. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,125. Look for buyers down at 11,100 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 10,960 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Models are neutral into quarter end, jaded Raul is bearish as can be

The purpose of this Sunday blog entry is to inform you all of my five day stock market forecast while also making a few program notes. First the programming notes. For 305 weeks or about 5.8 years I have put out a report on Sunday somewhere here at iBankCoin—usually behind the paywall. It was a task I reluctantly took over from another anonymous twitter trader named ChessNwine. ChessNwine went full nuclear around 5.8 years ago when we started all meeting each other in real life. The thought of the veil being lifted terrified the lad, he high tailed it out of here and blocked ever one of us.

The show had to go on.

I had no desire to put out a Weekly Strategy Session like ChessNwine did. His was long as hell and peppered with dozens of tickers he deemed bullish or bearish. It was all around not suited to my style of trading. I rebuilt the report to suit my interests—day trading index futures.

Since the amount of people interested in all the work, work, bloody self discovery, work and other work needed to be a consistently profitable futures trader is extremely small, the weekly report became wildly unpopular.

Ocassionally people would ask us to do little things to it, like fix the formatting of the damn thing so it was actually readable on a mobile phone. Little things that were beyond my abilities as an internet person. I am just a humble trader and a heck of a gardener and beyond that I rest easy on the fact that I am a beautiful man. Being beautiful makes life easy. I simply show up places, looking beautiful, and enough money comes my way to supplement and hard months I have out in the futures markets. The fixes were never made.

The report is now slated for retirement. It will no longer be tasked with preparing the report once we upgrade to Stocklabs. Which is fine. Stocklabs is shaping up to be a really badass tool and I cannot wait to see it move out of beta.

That said, the heckin’ report made me. Accountability for my research elevated my trading performance in a meaningful way. I mean, be honest, anyone reading this unpopular blog even casually over the last four years or so has to be like, “damn, that fucker Raul was right again.” I have been bowling strikes for years, hitting doubles and triples with a high average and I nailed a grand slam on Tesla, Match and Square.

I steered my flock away from crack head ticker lottery and into big tech. These weren’t massive feats on their own, but collectively they made a mint. Still, my popularity on the internet has never been like real life. The old Raul charisma just doesn’t sink its hooks in the reader. If I wasn’t so sure of my ability to trade well, the whole thing might be depressing.

The way my equity grows and my mind develops makes the whole thing worthwhile. And I know that if I were to give up my Sunday research now, I risk taking a big step backward—back to being an impulsive dullard, taking positions in the stock market for no damn good reason beyond some base reaction to a jolt in price or some other nonsense like a recommendation from some boob on teevee.

The show must go on lads. Therefore starting today and going forward, I will write a brief odd Sunday blurb as always, then it will be followed by the Sunday Strategy Session. Free of charge.

The models are neutral. Exodus is neutral. There is one tiny whisper of data that give a slight edge to the bears. I am personally bearish as hell and remain cashed up and hedged into quarter end. This position is based merely on prevailing sentiment as it appears through my crusty, jaded, hardened and otherwise indifferent perspective and not anything concrete like data. Maybe once October comes the data will support my perspective. Otherwise I will be forced to cut anchor, drop the SQQQ and chase my favorite names higher.

As always, TBD.

Raul Santos, September 27th 2020

And now the Sunday Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Exodus Strategy Session: 09/28/20 – 10/02/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.9, neutral. Volatility remains high as market struggles to find direction into quarter end.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big down gap to start the week. Choppy. Chopped higher through Tuesday then lower through Friday morning. Then a big Friday rally.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Sector rotations skewed bearish, with the key Tech sector diverging and remaining strong. Alongside the strong Tech performance however was the risk averse Utilities sector.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bearish. Nothing extreme yet but certainly not bullish.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Same call as last THREE weeks: Neutral means very minimal trading

I have very low conviction without some kind of directional bias from either IndexModel or Exodus. I’ll trade open gaps in range, especially a gap up that I can fade lower. But that is about the only risk I am willing to be exposed to.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently December 2020) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors found balance, Transports blew their energy and came into balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports did exactly what we expected last week, testing lower after failing higher out of the coil. Now the key sub index appears to be in some kind of a mini discovery down. There was a potential excess low Thursday when price worked down into a cluster of support below.

There is still some more room to the downside but not much before we tag the low-end of our multi-year range.

See below:

Semiconductors are holding range, slightly off all-time highs. Consolidation remains the call until we see this range break.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a fourth week after three prior consecutive bullish readings.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To be prepared against surprise is to be trained. To be prepared for surprise is to be educated.” – James P. Carse

Trade simple, prepare your trades before you enter the market

Comments »

Back on the lows after anticipated jobs report, here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing below Wednesday’s low for much of the Globex session before about 8:30am. At 8:30am jobless claims came out in-line with analyst consensus. Still, it sent price lower and as we approach cash open, price is trading right along the Monday low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am along with Fed Chairman Powell speak. At 11:30am there are 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at there is a bunch of Fed speak due out from less important bankers from 12-1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a very slight gap up that was resolved during an open two-way auction. That would be the extent of the control buyers would have on the day. Price quickly drove down below the Tuesday midpoint and the daily midpoint wall until about 11:30am when sellers became initiative and drove lower, taking out the Tuesday low by about 2:30pm and eventually tagging the Monday naked VPOC. We ended the day near the low.

Trend down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy battle. Buyers are seen defending ahead of 10,600 and we chop in this 10,600-10,700 range.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers gap-and-go lower, taking out 10,600 and sustaining trade below it to set up a run to 10,553.75. Look for buyers down at 10,527.50 and for two way trade ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 10,830. Buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 10,847 on their way to tagging 10,900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ up +70 here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the Monday high until about 1am when sellers made an attempt lower. Said sellers reversed much of the late Monday afternoon ramp before discovering a strong responsive bid. Buyers took price back up and beyond the Globex high, and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near last Thursday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10:30am and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down in range and after a choppy open two-way auction sellers made a move on the lows. Sellers took out last week’s low, trading down into the July 30th range briefly before a strong responsive bid stepped in. There was a battle at the midpoint and we chopped over it a few times before buyers pushed away from it and into a neutral print. Around 3pm we worked back to the midpoint again, buyers defended, setting up a powerful ramp higher into the closing bell. The ramp saw price climb back above last Friday’s midpoint and we ended on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, squeezing up to 11,138.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 11,138.25 setting up a tag of 11,200 and a gap fill up to 11,252.75 before two way trad ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,989. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 10,89750 setting up a tag of the Monday VPOC 10,808 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ down a quick -150 into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full week of September gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:20am when sellers stepped in and drove price down through last Friday’s low. As we approach cash open, price is bouncing along, right around the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a three day rally—rallying up into the FOMC rate decision then selling off for the rest of the week. There was a decent ramp higher into the Friday close. The Russell was divergent strong, suggesting a decent risk appetite still exists. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers drove down into at the open. This selling continued until tagging Thursday’s volume point of control. A strong responsive bid stepped in here and formed a sharp excess low. The low would not hold, however, by late morning sellers were pressing into the tap again and before lunch the Thursday low was taken out. There was a minor battle along the Thursday low before the selling campaign continued, trading down into levels unseen since July 31st. Then around 1:45pm the auction reversed. We spent the rest of the day ramping higher. We closed just below the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work a partial gap fill up to 10,880 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, liquidating down through overnight low 10,708.50. Buyers cannot hold 10,700 setting up a move down to 10,630.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a full gap fill up to 10,927.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

We could see some panic soon

If the top is in, we’re still pretty early in the process. To sit here and type an entry saying the top is in would be irresponsible. We don’t know if a top is in. We’ve made several observations that match-up with the type of sentiment we look for near tops. There are some major upcoming events geopolitical and otherwise that at some point will force the invisible hand to slap markets around in a fit of reprice. How and when the hand strikes, we don’t know. Winter is coming but not before spooky season. The possibility of putting a good scare into everyone is present. But without a solid data set there is no way to put a probability to it, and I’d rather go sit in the woods and eat with sticks then put the fear in any of yous.

I’ve been positioning for a correction. I panicked first—some time near the end of August I raised a decent chunk of cash since then resisted the temptation to redeploy it.

Then I put a big SQQQ position on Thursday morning. Decent entry. Not great, but certainly not as reactive and impulsive as some of the other entries I saw folks calling out:

So I am cashed up and hedged. Money has met mouth and together they are synchronized in expecting some kind of a correction. Either the market will prove me wrong, moving higher, forcing me to cover the hedge at a loss then chase prices higher. Or I think and fast and wait…until a good scare sets in so I can cover the hedge and begin to pepper some buy orders in.

I won’t be gung ho to buy the next dip. Not into the election. Too much uncertainty. I’d rather have funds earmarked for my latest project—a sweat lodge. They took away my precious hot yoga. I haven’t had it since the very beginning of March. This was fine during the initial COVID freakout. I was busy gathering supplies and whatnot. Then summer came and the warmth was ever present. But now winter is coming. A long one, by any measure. I am going to need a hot and dark and quiet place to sit and think.

You want to know my secret? Thinking. Fasting. Waiting. These are skills 99% of the competition lack. Master these and you’re well on your way to competency in investing and trading.

Winters are harsh in the murder mitten. They can twist the psyche and render the mind vulnerable to self deception. Ask me how I know.

The sweat lodge must be built and there must be some damn urgency behind the project. Winter is coming.

So I will not be buying heavily into the next dip. I will pepper in some buy orders. I expect the next dip is coming soon.

I could be wrong.

Models are neutral. There are whispers from the model and algorithims that a big down move is coming, but as of yet there is nothing probable. If selling accelerates this week. I will buy more SQQQ. Otherwise, assume your humble boy Raul is simply thinking, fasting and waiting.

Raul Santos, September 20th 2020

Exodus members, the 304th edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live. Go check it out.

 

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