iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,748 Blog Posts

Quarter-end :) NASDAQ up +35, flat on week, here’s the Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range.  Price worked higher overnight, balancing for several hours near the Thursday high before breaking away from the balance around 7am New York.  At 8:30am PCE core came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am and University of Michigan’s final March reading of sentiment.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap up.  Sellers resolved the overnight gap and then we worked higher, eventually stalling out before the first hour of trade completed and well below the Wednesday high.  Sellers then pressed us range extension down but the selling dried up well ahead of the Wednesday low.  Price eventually worked back above the daily midpoint and closed as we started to rally up-and-away from it.

Normal variation down.  Inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 7390.75.  Look for a tag of the naked VPOC at 7415 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7460.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7352.50.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7349.75.  Look for buyers down at 7309.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ coiled into Thursday open, here’s the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price held Wednesday’s range overnight.  At 8:30am GDP data came out worse than expected and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.  As we approach cash open, price is coiled up just below the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and attempt higher which resulted in an excess high.  Sellers then stepped in and drove the overnight gap shut then continued lower, tagging the weekly ATR band low before we bounced back to the mid.  Price chopped along the midpoint for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 7289.50 setting up a move to close the gap down at 7266.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 7346.75 setting up a move to tag 7400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to the naked VPOC at 7415 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is 7460.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Flat chop overnight, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price was choppy overnight, with price bracketing in a wide range below the Tuesday midpoint.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and spike higher.  We formed a sharp excess high at the Monday midpoint and began to auction lower.  Sellers eventually closed the overnight gap.  Late in the session, around 3:45pm, we ramped higher into the bell but still closed well-below the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7403.75 setting up a move to tag the Tuesday VPOC at 7414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7460.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 7359.50 setting up a move to target 7314.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ back in Friday’s range, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the Monday high in the early evening and then catching a bid off the high later at night.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of last Friday’s double distribution trend down.

On the economic calendar today we have case-shiller home price index at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, a 52-week t-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down-and-away from the Friday range.  Sellers drove down off the open but a strong responsive bid was found before we could go range extension down.  When sellers attempted to push the market neutral during the afternoon, a responsive bid was again discovered and we worked back up near the daily high by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher.  Look for a move up through overnight high 7403, then look for sellers up at 7414 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7460.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 7355.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7351.  Look for buyers down at 7313.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ regains Friday range late-morning after overnight selloff, here is the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price spiked lower overnight, with [pajama] traders having their first chance to digest the Mueller/Trump news which came out right after closing bell Friday.  The Mueller news determined Trump had not colluded with the Russians.  The selling went down through last week’s low, trading down into the 3/14 range before printing a mini failed auction and reversing higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right above Friday’s close.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a choppy sideways drift, with the major indices diverging and converging around each other during the week, accomplishing very little directional discovery.  Accepting and building value instead.  After the Wednesday afternoon FOMC rate decision [left unchanged, tone of statement dovish] buyer stepped in and drove price higher.  The buyers continued to explore higher prices through most of Thursday.  Aggressive pressure from sellers on Friday resulted in a big red daily candle print, which resulted in all indices except the NASDAQ to end the week at or near weekly lows.

Last week’s performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with an exhaustion style gap down away from swing high (after a trend day up).  After a two-way auction at the open price drove lower, erasing all of Thursday’s trend up by New York lunch.  Then, after some very wide chop which was being bought along Wednesday’s naked VPOC, price eventually drove a bit lower to end the week near Wednesday’s low, and at Friday’s session low.

Double distribution trend down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to attempt a rejection down and away from the Friday low 7353.  Look for price to move down through overnight low 7290.  Look for buyers down at 7280.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers close overnight gap up to 7368.25, regaining the Friday range.  Then we continue higher, up through overnight high 7390.50 setting up a move to tag 7400.  Look for sellers up at 7414.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to close the gap at 7266.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Last weeks selling was logical, you can be logical too

What popped out during my Sunday research was how most of last week’s selling pressure was focused on industry groups that are sensitive to interest rates—industries that would, in traditional finance theory, stand to turn more profits if interest rates went up.  The below graph displays last week’s returns from the best and worst performing industries:

When you take into consideration the unexpectedly dovish statement from the Federal Reserve last Wednesday, which suggested they have no intention of lifting interest rates for the rest of 2019, the selling pressure seen above appears logical.  The money is flowing away from potential loser industries, but is it completely leaving the equity markets?

I doubt it.

All the real hitters know that the rally we’ve enjoyed since 2016 has been driven by big tech.  Big tech is all that matters and listen.

Soon there will be no regional banks.  What?  Did you think the tech invasion would just stop at the gates of finance?  Bankers lack the means to build a mote sophisticated enough to keep out all the AI goblins crawling out of Silicon Valley.  Those coastal elites have their minds set on bankrupting your local spendthrift with some gamified phone app that lives in a cloud. And that’s okay.

All I want is to be helpful to folks who want to draw money out of the stock market via investments and trades.  When you speculate, there are only a few important actualities you need to accept about the present.

First, this is Jeff Bezos’s world we’re just living in it.  The man literally reneged on a promise to the capitalists of New York (the capital of capitalism) to distract everyone away from some unsavory penis pictures The National Enquirer managed to get their hands on.

Next, nothing is sacred in the battle to control the way we think as a society.  Projects like bitcoin reveal how national governments are losing a grip and they don’t like it.

The Federal Reserve and the Internal Revenue Service are the first and second most powerful government agencies in the world.

And finally, ‘we were here first’ is an irrelevant argument made by old generations desperately clinging to an expectation for order in a completely random and indifferent universe.

If you’re reading this blog you have, all of you have one reason to continue coming back to read me hammer the same few principles week after week, and that is for the explicit intent of watching how a hardened speculator prepares to extract fiat US Federal Reserve notes from the global financial markets.  Ruthlessly.  Impersonally, like a robot.  This isn’t some knitting circle where we gossip about the latest news bit bullshit.  Believe me, if a news thingy happens that really truly matters, someone in real life will tell you.

I show up 2-5 hours every Sunday and do research.  I write super boring trading reports that most of you will never bother to understand.  Then I plug my brain into the machines and fight like a ravenous dog for US Federal Reserve notes.  If along the way we can interact for the sake of improving our craft let’s do it.

The models lads, which are built on the foundation stones of raw market data, they’re neutral.  This is the last week of Q1.  If you have managed to harvest gains over these last three months, I saute you.  For those of you who didn’t, maybe now is a good time to meditate on what has real value in this world.  Then get some more of that.  I am in no rush to declare a strong directional forecast for the next five days.  Therefore I will be taking it real easy and only scalping the highest probability setups, like the manna regularly offered by the stock market gods in the form of an open gap in range.

All very logical you see?

ciao ciao kiss kiss

RAUL SANTOS, March 24th 2019

Exodus members, the 227th edition of Strategy Session is live.  You need to see the notes on semiconductors and transports, be sure to check out Section IV.

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Day after trend day ;-) here’s the Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price made a new weekly high overnight before driving lower.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI at 9:45am, existing home sales at 10am, and monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend day.  The day began with a gap down that erased much of the reaction higher Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC rate decision.  Buyers drove higher off the open, closing the overnight gap, taking out overnight high, then continuing higher, trading up into price levels unseen since October 4th (the first day of hard selling on the NASDAQ at the beginning of Q4’18.  The volume point of control shifted up near the high near the end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7535.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7544.75.  Look for sellers up at 7584.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 7440.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers erase much of the trend up, trading down to 7409.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sellers erase FOMC pump overnight, here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, after a brief evening rally, eventually trading back down to where price was before the FOMC interest rate decision [benchmark borrowing rate left unchanged (expected) and tone/verbiage considered ‘dovish’ (accommodating/expansive) by most participants].  Overall the Globex session has been contained inside the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The session began flat and with a tight two-way auction .  Said tight auction first went range extension up, then it went neutral (offering a great long entry point) then it coiled into the FOMC decision.  After the decision we rallied to a new 2019 high, trading just a few point above the 10/09/18 high, into levels unseen since 10/05 before responsive sellers stepped in and worked price back to the daily midpoint.  The day ended with price hovering well above the daily mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7403.75.  From here we continue higher, trading up through overnight high 7440.  Look for sellers up at 7466 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 7367.75 setting up a move to target 7334 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 local-to-local chop, close overnight gap 7403.75 and take out overnight high 7440 but then stall into a tight two-way chop.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Drift in the forecast until FOMC rate decision, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat (v.slight gap up) after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the Tuesday range.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Tuesday midpoint.

At 2pm today we have an FOMC rate decision.  According the CME Fed Fund futures, there is a 98.7% probability of no change [UNCH] their benchmark borrowing rate.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up and tight two-way auction.  Sellers briefly pushed us range extension down in the late morning, but there was no interest in going lower.  Instead buyers rejected a move back into the Monday high and drove us to a neutral print, stalling just a few ticks ahead of the weekly ATR band.  Sellers then stepped in and reversed the entire daily range and eventually closed the overnight gap.  Buyers stepped in during the final 15-minutes and worked price back up, but not beyond the daily mid.

Neutral day, and a choppy one.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7392.25 before we balance out and mark time.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7353 setting up a move to target 7334.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 7426.50 before we balance out and mark time.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC rate decision to drive direction into the second half of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ probing early-October levels, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up into levels unseen since October 9th.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering up in the 10/09/18 range.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders and durable goods at 10am.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day.  The day began with a slight gap down followed by a drive higher.  Price took out recent swing highs and managed to go range extension up before responsive sellers stepped in.  Said sellers took price down to last Friday’s midpoint, pushing us neutral before we eventually climbed back above the daily mid.

Neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into the Monday high 7379.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 7395.50 to target 7422.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7360 setting up a move down through overnight low 7347.  Look for buyers down at 7334 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7309.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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