Slightly bullish // ready for June

Lads one thing I’ve always loved about being an index futures trader is the quarterly nature of our dear derivatives. Last Thursday most active traders rolled forward from the March contract to the June. I always wait until the weekend to do so, even if I am actively participating, which I most certainly was not last week. But I’ve spent the better part of this morning refreshing and rebuilding my charts for the June contract which inevitably leads to warm thoughts.

Try as I may to finish installing a new kitchen at Mothership quick enough to hightail it west for one last romp in the snow, that likelihood decreases with every passing week.

Sometimes the project seems to be moving along nicely. Other times I go to move a plug and make a real horror show of a mess of the drywall. I am not handy. I come from a long line of builders but I build out of necessity not passion. My passion is gardening and earth keeping and gathering natural resources.

Now I may be just a humble speculator, by trade, but I don’t let the challenges of installing a kitchen get me down. If I can understand high level physics books then I can most certainly install tile and plumbing. Moving water is one of my specialties, waste or otherwise.

And while I’d rather be building fountains I want a big ass farm sink for processing all the dang food I grow. So here we are.

The upcoming week is likely to be full of shenanigans. There is a FOMC annocement. The gambling halls down in Chicago are placing one hundred prercent odds that the Fed will leave the benchmark borrowing rate unchanged a 0-0.25%. There is still likely to be an EKG burst reaction around 2pm Wednesday. And as participants digest the language coming out of Powell’s Fed during the 2:30pm presser, we ought to gain a decent idea where the market is headed into the second half of the week.

What most of my peers don’t seem to realize is my approach to trading allows me to make 600-900 fiat american dollars real quick. And I do that a few times a week. I don’t glue myself to the terminal, addicted, going after trade-after-trade-after-traded. That is no way to live. I secure the bag then I go and enjoy life. If I cannot see all the stars aligned for me to become active, it makes money, long term, for me to do anything other than trade. Literally sitting completely still, in the yard, listening to birds, makes me more profitable than engaging my edge all the heckin’ time.

I never took up speculation for the sake of speculation. It was a means to a lifestyle I desired—one where I am free to do as I please. No one’s master. No one’s slave. Cooking tasty food. Swimming. Drinking hootch and being the rock of my familia. That’s it.

So while there is always the opportunity to go after more.MORE.MOAR…I ask myself, “at what cost?” Right now I work too hardt. This heckin’ kitchen has me stressin’. And if it’s not wrapped up by about April 20th, then it’s going to start to infringe on my outside work. My passion.

We cannot have this.

Therefore I must focus on making incremental progress on the Mothership kitchen even if it means falling behind on my speculative finance work. I do not apologize if this leaves any of you hanging.

I’ve never promised to feed any of you fish. At my best, I am a resource for generating your own ideas on how to fish. That way, when I am gone, you don’t cease up. Psychologically you are unchanged and you make your way just fine, emotionally convinced that you can handle your own self business.

At my worst I am just a heckin’ distraction.

I will likely find time to trade the opens most days this week. But my screen time will remain limited until this dang kitchen is back operational.

Raul Santos, March 14th (Pi Day!), 2021

And now the 329th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 03/15/21 – 03/19/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.58, medium bull. Continued upward momentum early in the week. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon to dictate direction into the second half of OPEX week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Buyers in control all week long everywhere except the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ saw a hard sell Monday then sort of chopped higher for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations higher across the board. Slightly risk averse to see Utilities as the second best performers. The lagging Tech sector also not suggesting a clear bullish week ahead.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows were heavily buy side, performance wide. Nearly seven pages of industries with returns over +3%. Median return was an impressive 5.74% while 30 day volume delta skewed negative, perhaps due to accounting for the recent sell off several weeks back.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

No signals

Scanning through the various OBOS signals for the Stocklabs algo quickly reveals we have no statistical backing from the software heading into the week that we can use to form a bias. Nothing from IndexModel either. Therefore being neutral, the focus is on only taking high quality trade set-ups and only for scalps. No reason to press winners in this environment.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Continued upward momentum early in the week. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon to dictate direction into the second half of OPEX week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors come into a choppy balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports in a clear discovery up phase.

See below:

Semiconductors appear to be in a choppy range. The Fibonacci retracements above and below current prices are broad areas where I expect price to bracket and work sideways.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a second week after signaling Bunker Buster two weeks ago and being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that. No bias heading into next week. Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All cruelty springs from weakness.” – Seneca

Trade simple, be kind

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into the second day of the second week of March up about +250 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily climbed higher overnight, via one small than one large rotation higher, ascending up past the Monday VPOC before finding sellersaround 7am New York. Since then a choppy balance has formed and as we approach cash opne price is hovering a bit below the Monday VPOC and above its mid.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year note auction at 1pm. With the recent lack of demand for Treasuries, the outcome of these auctions is likely to be more keenly attended to by investors.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap down in range and after a quick open drive down buyers emerged and pressed the gap fill and beyond, briefly tagging 12,700. This all happened within the first 15 minutes. Price then fell back to the midpoint, buyers defended and sent us to a new daily high and brief range extension up. That was the end of the buyer control for the day. The rest of the session was spent auctioning lower, eventually pressing neutral and closing on the daily low. This move effectively tagged the odd VPOC left behind at the lows last Friday (see the second chart below). However, value migrated a bit higher during Monday’s action despite being a neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 12,648.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 12,767 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down and close the overnight gap down at 12,336.50. Look for buyers ahead of 12,300 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of March down about -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first went gap up Sunday evening when Globex opened for trade. Then, after trading up near last Thursday’s range sellers stepped in and took control of the tape, steadily rotating price lower via three pushes lower that eventually worked price a bit down through the Friday midpoint. Around 4:30am bidders reversed the auction, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week had a third sigma NYSE TICK on the open Monday, kicking the month off with a full day of conviction buying. Tuesday erased much of the Monday gains then aggressive sellers formed a sharp trend lower through to mid-Friday. Markets turned around late Friday and rallied into the close. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Thursday midpoint. Sellers quickly resolved the overnight gap and continued lower, trading down through the Thursday low shortly after the first hour of trade, pushing the market into an early range extension down, briefly trading down into price levels unseen since November 30th. Here a strong responsive bid stepped in and price shot up through the daily midpoint and later in the afternoon pushed neutral and eventually closed along the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,656.50. Look for sellers up at 12,679.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 12,765.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 12,420 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Good evening lads,

I took a break from installing the kitchen from hell, jackin’ off and all the other deviant things I do to update the weekend research and here we are. There was a bunker buster last week. Yup. Sure was. There is something to be said about being prepared for a price acceleration…so I shall. In the past I’ve taken to the futures market during a bunker buster week and I would start out only working the short side of the tape, then eventually I would switch and only work the long side. The challenge was often times the bunker can bust right off the get go Monday morning.

In fact, I thought that might have been the case last week. Right on the open Monday the NYSE TICK went third sigma up. Thems are ‘go with’ ticks. I had to resist with every fiber the base impulse to sit down and start ripping long /nq trades. Instead, I stayed in my nightmare kitchen, brooding about the next time I could jack off, and from my mobile phone I placed buy orders for GOOGL and TACO and something else. I dunno exactly which tickers. It doesn’t really matter. Wednesday I did it again TWTR and TACO and something else, and Friday a third time COST and TACO and AMZN.

Expecting selling, I was patient and had my little shopping list like I was going to Costco to stock up on supplies for the old jack shack and I just checked the names off the list then walked past the dollar fifty hot dogs and went back to the empty box that once was a kitchen.

I eat from one bowl, no matter what the food and I use the grey water from my laundry to worsh it rinsed. I drink municipal water from a mason jar I fill from the sink next to the toilet.  This is also where I shit and make coffee.

In summary, I have reduced Mothership to Cruise America RV living conditions and morale is sort of…idk…off.

In any event, physically I am strong as an ox. I can literally rip cabinets off the walls with my bear (bare?) hands. Performance wise, doing okay. Next week? We don’t know. One bite at a time.

Raul Santos, March 7th, 2021

And now the 328th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 03/08/21 – 03/12/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.95, neutral. Sellers assert some pressure on prices early in the week before a choppy second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Third sigma NYSE TICK on the open Monday, kicking the month off with a full day of conviction buying. Tuesday erases much of the Monday gains then a sharp trend lower through to mid-Friday. Markets turn around late Friday and rally into the close.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations mostly higher. Energy continues to trade on its own planet. Concerning divergent weakness from key Tech and Discretionary sectors.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows slightly skewed to the sell side of the ledger, but not by much. Volume delta well over +5% suggests buyers were more aggressive with their orders. Median return a bit below +0.5%.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

The week after a Bunker Buster

So the Bunker Buster managed to forecast the selling. The IndexModel does a decent job of providing a good explanation “why” the market does what it does. We look at raw data generated by the net interactions of all market participants. No headlines. No gurus. Not the moon. Just orders.

The tendency after the model successfully forecasts behavior is to become aggressive. Well, heading into this week we have no IndexModel to work with. The model is neutral. Stocklabs is neutral. There is nothing to work with.

Hopefully we used last week’s selling to accumulate larger positions in our favorite long term investments. If we executed that part of our strategy well then this upcoming week is the time to do nothing.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sellers assert some pressure on prices early in the week before a choppy second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Possible signs of balance

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports saw buyers form a sharp excess low. This could be the early set-up for a new balance.

See below:

Semiconductors also formed an excess low, right around the breakout zone from a prior consolidation. Primary expectation is for a new range to take hold.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after signaling Bunker Buster last week and being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior. No bias heading into next week. Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” – Lao Tzu

Trade simple, this trade now, then the next

Comments »

If you’ve been accumulating shares of Jack Dorsey’s Twitter alongside me throughout the entire winter and paper handedly sell at the first sign of winter ending I can’t help you. Investing isn’t for you. Seek W-2 service at a corporation willing to start you at $15/hour or obtain some low-level bachelors degree and a starting salary of $48,000.

If you intend to maintain financial independence you have to know how to milk a winner until it is done giving. Then sit through another winter, accumulating, eating apples over the kitchen sink, until summer comes again.

Patience. Now is the time to do nothing.

Raul Santos, March 1st 2021

Comments »

I read a beautiful tweet this morning:

Did shrooms
With my wife
Saw a vision
Came up with a billion dollar idea
Manifesting under a full moon
I love my life

— No 🔑 No 🧀 (@bitcoinzay) February 28, 2021

And whether or not this nice man came up with a billion dollar idea, we don’t know. It doesn’t matter. I know well the feeling behind the message and that he was brave enough and has a strong enough relationship with his wife to take psychedelics together is a wonderful thing.

Set and setting are so very important when you take these chemicals. Self-awareness skyrockets when we introduce these compounds to our body. The mushrooms show you what you need to see. Most of us have some goblins hiding out in our psyche, wrong doings, whatever, which is fine, however confronting those spooky things around the wrong people and/or in the wrong place is a recipe for a bad time.

You know, running down the street naked, rolling around in gutter puddles, stuff like that. No bueno.

I spend a good deal of my time building places I feel safe going on a trip. You would not believe how difficult it is to create total outdoor privacy. Pure, garden of eden style, nudity without the risk of offense, writhing around on the ground asking the gods why, why, WHYYYY? outdoor privacy. Ask me how I know.

There are a few ways. The first and least labor intensive is go to a national forest and hike at least a half day into the wild then venture off any beaten path. You will find, however, that it is extremely difficult to get away from humans. They. Are. Everywhere. Again. Ask me how I know.

Next you can build privacy. But don’t assume a six foot wooden fence will do it. It won’t. Don’t assume 20 acres of land will do it. It won’t. Some fucker always has the higher ground. I work hard in this department.

You need to become one hell of a gardener. In the north, emerald green arborvitaes are your friend. They need lots of space though, more then you might give them if you’re impatient and want privacy NOW. I recommend planting two rows of them in a checkerboard formation. So with a six foot wooden fence and about $5,000 fiat american dollar’s worth of arborvitae stock you are well on your way to creating total visual privacy. Guess what? You still need to create audible privacy.

You would not believe how fucking god damned nosy people can be when you start howling like a wolf. You’re going to need to build some fountains. Big ones. You really need lots of white noise if you’re a moaner.

Okay now the third way: obtain the high ground. This works well especially in the city where there is all sorts of other noises. Climb or otherwise gain access to the tallest building in sight. Bring a couple snacks, some forty ounce bottles of malt liquor and the psychedelic of choice. Make sure you have the mental fortitude not to lose your head up at those heights. I recommend a faithful companion.

The fourth way is a totally different set of circumstances and will result in a totally different experience. Which is fine. And can be wonderful — go to a massive gathering of freaks (rave, masquerade, festival) and sort of just go with the flow. Blend in with the wookies. Experience the deep interconnection to your fellow humans. Beware though. They may gross you out at some point—what with all their gluttony and pores….their pores…and their stimulant impulses.

So yeah man there you go. Those are a few ways to set up for a nice trip.

BACK TO MARKETS: We have a signal to work with from the IndexModel. The first one in thirteen weeks. Hallelujah. Bunker Buster. This is a wild signal. It calls for an acceleration to the downside which eventually leads to a low that can last for weeks. Months even.

And we’re heading into March. And the moon is big. And last week we had all that spooky numerology guff going on (3.33 on 02/21/21).

I do not day trade during Bunker Buster signals. But I do accumulate/add to long term investments. Therefore I will use the week to buy more TACO, TWTR, TSLA, FAMI, GOOGL and so on.

I will likely put out morning reports still. Or just tweet out my levels. Either way thank you for stopping by and just know I am looking for fast selling to buy into.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, February 28th 2021

And now the 327th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 03/01/21 – 03/05/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.55, medium bear*. Selling velocity increases to the downside, ultimately forming a sharp, excess low that holds for the rest of the week. Third reaction to Non-farm payroll data Friday morning sets direction heading into the end of the week.

*Bunker Buster signal triggered, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Pro gap down into the week. Sellers control the tape through early Tuesday. Buyers strong Tuesday and erase Wednesday’s down gap. Strong selling Thursday. Choppy Friday, chopping along the weekly lows.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations uniformly lower except for energy which continues to trade independent of other sectors.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed heavily to the downside last week. Median return nearly -2% but not quite. The median 30-day volume delta remains negative suggesting a continued outflow of capital from the equity complex.

bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Bunker Buster

This is the first bunker buster signal of 2021. There were four bunker busters in 2020 (2/2, 3/22, 6/28, 11/1). This signal is bullish, in a sense, but has been hard for me to use to my advantage in my day trading. I have however found it to be a useful time to accumulate additional long-term investments.

Therefore I will use the upcoming week to add to my favorite investments of 2021, especially into any fast selling. The key is to wait for responsive buyers to emerge. This will look like a sharp, fast bounce off the lows. It could come as soon as Monday morning.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Pro gap down into the week. Sellers control the tape through early Tuesday. Buyers strong Tuesday and erase Wednesday’s down gap. Strong selling Thursday. Choppy Friday, chopping along the weekly lows.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors wearing out support zone

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still look to be in discovery up. Primary expectation is for a continued up phase.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors have pressed into their local support level hard three times. The more times a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. This could lead to a fresh leg lower. This general drawn box envisions where a new balance may form along the highs.

Or we could switch right into discovery down.

Or the support holds and discover up continues.

All this to say the key semiconductor index is looking uncertain heading into March.

neutral

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling bunker buster after thirteen consecutive weeks of neutral readings. This signal calls for an acceleration to the downside that ultimately discovers a tradable low.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Friday, February 5^th Exodus flagged hybrid (and technical) overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that ran through Monday, February 22nd end-of-day. Here is the final performance:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.” – Buddha

Trade simple, be patient

 

 

Comments »

Lads I’ve been on the wrong side of the tape all week and very early yesterday I hit my weekly loss limit. I am in good spirits but rules are there for a reason. Namely so I don’t blow my account up.

Twitter is my second largest position. Yesterday’s spike did well to shore up some of the bleeding. But with Jack giveth, Elon taketh.

I will spend the day working on installing my dang kitchen. I reportedly have Cousin Raul on the way to help.

Twitter is a never sell for me. Soon I will be charging 1 doge to see my tweet, and at the rate I tweet this will make be a very rich doge.

Trade’em well lads. I’ll be back Sunday with preparations for the week.

Raul Santos, February 26th 2021

Comments »

NADSAQ future are coming into the final Thursday in February down about -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily declined overnight, balancing along the Wednesday high until about 3am New York when sellers began campaigning price lower. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out better than expected, GDP results were below forecast and jobless claims data came out better than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering about +80 above the Wednesday midpoint.

Key semiconductor component NVIDIA reported earnings after the bell Wednesday. Shares of the chip maker are down about -2.25% in pre-market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range and after an open two-way auction sellers made a slight push lower, nearly tagging the Tuesday VPOC before a sharp excess low formed that would ultimately mark low-of-day. Price slashed through the midpoint then formed a quick and tight little chop just above the mid before beginning a steady campaign higher for the rest of the day. We ended on the highs, up into the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,329.25. Look for seller up at 13,325 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Wednesday of February down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, in a choppy sort-of way, first exceeding the Tuesday high around 8pm New York then falling back down to the Tuesday midpoint before walking back up and making a new overnight high. That second high happened around 8am and tagged the 0.618 retrace of this entire sell move (from 2/21 at 8:20pm through to 2/23 at 9:50am). Since then price has dropped about -250 points, and as we approach cash open price is hovering about +100 above the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am then a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Major semiconductor maker NVIDIA is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap down then a sell drive down at the open. Sellers drove down and closed the gap left behind on MLK day before discovering responsive buyers who formed a sharp excess low. Buyers sent the auction higher, slicing through the daily midpoint and pushing an early range extension up. Price then fell back down to the midpoint and was sort of chopping all over it before buyers reasserted themselves and mounted a huge +300 point ramp into the close. Price closed in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,155.25. Look for sellers ahead of 13,200 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go down through overnight low 13,027 and tag 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers take out overnight high 13,295.50 on their way to tagging 13,300.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday down a quick -225 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. The selling began around 1am New York and the campaign lower continued unidirectionally until about 5:30am with the market catching a bid down in the lower quadrant of the January 29th range (the last trading day of January). As we approach cash open, price is hovering a touch higher, just below 13k, holding up a bit above the February 1st lows.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down below the prior three sessions, down near the lows of February 2nd-4th. After an open auction outside range buyers made the initial push, pushing a bit beyond the opening swing but ultimately stalling and printing an excess high before the first hour was complete. That would mark the high. Sellers pressed down through the range quickly, then made an early range extension down. Price checked back to the midpoint around 2:15pm after one ticking below the prior daily low. Sellers defended, setting up a push lower into the close. We closed on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work a half gap-fill up to 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 12,946.50 on their way to closing the open gap down at 12,886.25 (Jan 29th) before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag the MLK gap down at 12,772.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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