Who Needs Instinct When You Have Robots for Friends?

Buyers shut it down to close out the week. Net-net, we’re down a touch on the surface, looking at the lazy Nasdaq. It was all but over after the Nonfarm Payroll data.

It was an interesting number to watch hit the market. Futures were already up about ten points, and about 5-10 seconds ahead of the number buy flow was already rushing in. Price jerked right up to one of my homework levels and whipped a 12 point counter rotation from it. Buyers stepped up on the first dip and assembled two more smooth pushes higher.

After the open we formed a nice compression near opening swing high and had a small thrust before lunch/tee-time.  Summer trade ensued. It’s 85 degrees today it feels like the fourth of July people.

All the while, all week really, stocks started to coalesce into textbook bullish technical patterns. Mark my words closely, write this down: the real money is made Monday.

Go HAGWE Dominator style.

PS – The Exodus (formerly known as PPT) flaggest oversold yesterday if you had the brass to sit through this mornings data.

Nasdaq futures are steaming higher premarket. Price was up nearly 10 handles on the session ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll data and continued higher after. The big surprise in the data was the 85k revision to last month’s figure making it that much worse—perhaps easing investors’ concern The Fed will raise short term interest rates soon. A big bounce in construction helped today’s number. Overall the news was interpreted as positive.

Also on the docket today is the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Big moves tend to occur where market profile shows a thin history. We call these areas zippers or single prints. In the instances where a large set of single prints is above, I like to think of it like a pole or rope. I was discussing this feature yesterday on twitter, and you can still slightly see it, though it has been partially filled in. See below:

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the reaction move and test down to 4433 before finding buyers and choppy, two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 is a gap and go higher, a strong surge at the open morphs into a slow grind up to 4474. If sellers no show here then we continue to 4491.25.

Hypo 3 is return to NFP “crime scene” 4412 and two way trade enses.

Hypo 4 blow through pre NFP mark 4412 and test the lower balance at 4400.

Levels are pictured above.

The market is doing this little wiggle, ever so poetically, that completely mesmerizes me. I gaze at these charts and my hyper-critical eye sees little-to-no flaw whatsoever. Everything’s tight, and right. It’s like a greatest hits album out there.

But I have to control myself, temper my impulses to buy, because there’s a joker on the horizon. Tomorrow isn’t promised. After all this is May and there are waters to sail and garden parties to plan. So I sit and wait and hear about jobs. But not the farming jobs, we couldn’t care less about farm jobs. Those are for robots and migrants.

People overestimate their importance, forgetting how the horse was replaced by the auto. Now what work is given to horses? They are mostly novelty—commissioned to compete as entertainment. I digress.

Don’t be a hero tomorrow. Let the big guys slug it out for the first hour or so, then as the dust settles start looking for your spots.

Yes yes, this beautiful day is merely transient, right? Today is just a momentary reprieve before inevitable death. But that is exactly what makes it special, smell those roses boy.

The good days, if you don’t revel in them a bit, then all your brooding on the bad days is certain to create a mortal imbalance.

By means of super computers, I’ve managed to position myself in a manner that avoided most of the pain delivered to bulls this week. My book sort of sat around waiting for its shot at glory. Well here we are. This market is rewarding growth prospects as long as they don’t report earnings.

Look at YELP today, Stoppelman is once again a hero. GoPro looks lovely, three cheers for beer!  Elon made it through earnings relatively unscathed.  That ought to frighten bears a bit.

Remember this: tomorrow decides this week’s battle. I’d advise against shooting from the hip unless you have a compelling reason. However, come sunrise this whole ship could launch.

The pole is climbable. He’s a man, he bleeds.

Nasdaq futures went for a ride overnight. On the session price printed over a 40 point range on abnormal volume. Most of the session was dominated by buyers until after 5am when sellers showed up inside the 04/07 range.

At 8:30am intial/continuing jobless claims data was out and has seen price lower slightly. Also up on the docket today is Natural Gas storage figures at 10:30am and Consumer Credit at 3pm. The big data is out tomorrow morning when we here the monthly change in NonFarm Payroll.

Yesterday sellers pushed off the open to take out Tuesday’s low early on and sellers continued pushed for most of the session. Comments from Fed Chair Yellen about equity valuations being high may have spooked investors. By early afternoon we closed the open gap dating back to 4/17. Toward the end of the day we saw a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the early morning globex inventory to 4349.75 before buyers step in and work us higher. Look for buyers to take out overnight high 4379.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4332.50 to target 4310 before buyers step in and 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3, buyers push off the open to target 4390 before sellers come in and two way trade comes in.

Hypo 4 strong rally up through 4396 sets up a secondary push to 4432.

Levels:

Some of these stocks are hard.   They came up from destitute environments, deprived of modern niceties that make most you suckas soft.

I happen to be the owner of several of these stocks, and perhaps my ultimate correction comes later this week. Tomorrow isn’t promised. Perhaps my lashings were sufficient Monday and Tuesday. Whatever the reason, today was pleasant.

Maybe they’re raising the water temp nice and slow so I don’t jump out of the pot. It feels nice. TAP traded higher today after BUD threw down a solid quarter. Despite the craft beers and mustachios, BUD is making better margins than ever on their golden lager drink. TAP is better, if only for their brilliant packaging.

Other, far more risk tolerant names, stock whose tickers I’d only mention away from the mischievous eyes of predatory algos are holding up well too. It’s whispering.

The indicies say I’m doomed, but my positions say hold steady, mate. So I shall.

Nasdaq futures are flat overnight on a session that featured heavy volume and two way trade. Price pushed higher first, but stalled in the lower quadrant of yesterday’s trend day before traversing lower and extending beyond yesterday’s low. Buyers showed up right where they needed to so far and we spent the rest of the session chopping along the middle of the globex range.

Today we had ADP Employment Change at 8:15am, the number yielded a muted reaction. At 9:15 Fed Yellen and Lagarde are on a panel in Washington, and at 10:30am the Crude/Gas Inventory stats are out. It will be interesting to see the reaction in oil this week as the commodity continues to press higher for another week.

Just below where the Nasdaq currently trades is the 4/20 conviction day. It was tested last Thursday and we found responsive buyers. However, once again, we are here, and they are again tasked with playing defense.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push off the open. Whether or not they can take out the overnight low will be telling, because below 4395.50 there is potential for liquidation. However, today I look for buyers to hold the low and press higher to target 4433.

Hypo 2 is buyers push up through 4433 and climb and reverse much of yesterday’s action, targeting 4450.

Hypo 3 we take out overnight low, but find responsive buyers just below last Thursday’s low 4386.50 to trap shorts and push higher.

Hypo 4 we take out overnight low and 4386.50 setting up a liquidity event to target 4354.75.

Level:

Seller capitalized on the slippery footing presented to market participants this morning and volatility inched higher for a second week. This Nasdaq is threatening the very livelihood of bulls.   Bulls, are you feeling threatened? Are your doors locked?

There’s a joker in the deck, and as the week grows older the odds of it showing its silly face increase. Friday we hear NonFarm Payroll data. The anticipation of said number may start to quiet things down. Problem is, here we are, down on the lows. If we are the muddle about, down here, it will only serve to start severing the supply lines of bulls in momos.

Then archers will start picking them off, one by one. The little baby grazers are easy picking when they’re upwind and the sun is low.

I am super selective here, with exposure, but nevertheless took some FBs. Now listen to me, Mark isn’t like the others, he has a big heart and it’s all in on Facebook, his mark [hehe] on history.

Now I insist on drinking Coors light from high speed bullet cans while peddling a stationary bike to 150RPMs. Jim Cramer, dance on the teevee boy, entertain me.

The Nasdaq is trading lower premarket. A few attempts were made to push price higher and each was met with quick reversal, suggesting the early perception of these prices is one of excess.

Trade Balance data was out at 8:30am and served to accelerate the index selling to session low. Also on the agenda today is the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 10am.

Yesterday we opened gap up and had a strong early drive into last Wednesday’s range before finding sellers. We then spent the rest of the session rotating lower, not quite filling the overnight gap. Sellers did manage to close the range gap however, which likely gave sellers confidence to hold overnight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to continue pushing off the open. Look for buyers around 4450 but if they no show then liquidation down to 4435.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory to test up through to 4470 where sellers defend and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4476.25 and set up a secondary leg higher to 4490.75. If buyers can take out this level the weak high at 4503.50 becomes a target.

Hypo 4 gap and go drive down, take out 4435 and continue to test 4420.

Levels:

Just like last Monday, here we are, closing on session low after a strong morning. Just like last Monday the open had all the hallmarks of a drive, only to fizzle. There’s something about it, it feels spongy.

Sure, I have a couple of stocks up over ten percent today, but like any hamburger eater I want more.

I bought beer today. The entire world could go to shit and beer would still have a market. People quite love to inebriate themselves. Yes, the traitors at Budweiser have a stock that looks like death heading into earnings. But this is a pickers market, and that’s why TAP appeals to me. I also like their Rocky Mountain cold activated bullet can-bottles, they’re the perfect sports drink for on the go types.

But listen to me, these index moves are whispering caution already, on Monday. Fast or slow, it doesn’t sit well with me, yet. Developing…