iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,121 Blog Posts

Switchboard and More

The liquidation continues, bulls are nowhere to be seen, and switchboard scores are the lowest I’ve seen. This is a major win for my market model after it scored a series of modest wins. Overall Rose Colored Sunglasses stands at a staggering 9 for 13 with 2 knockouts—a fight record to be proud of.

I’ll be honest, when it triggered last weekend I was a bit apprehensive. I had to reach out to Uncle Buccs and talk it through because it went against my new month voodoo. It also was tricky because we were coming into the 7th inning of an Exodus hybrid oversold cycle.

Nevertheless, I adhered to my model and avoided taking new risk (almost) all week. I threw on a lotto TSLA position yesterday at the bell because of the uncertainty of NFP. It is a dud. Most lottos are, hence the name.

My cash is the highest it has been all year. I worked the Nasdaq short well enough to eat rib eye all month, and my NUGT boner is starting to tingle.

Dr. Dre dropped a new album last night and it would behoove you to play the album for all your neighbors to hear. Here’s my switchboard then below it my favorite driving tune:

08072015_NQ_SB

Comments »

Nonfarm Payroll Ensures September Rate Hike

Nasdaq futures are flat heading into cash open here in the USA. The session featured a slightly elevated range taking place on a normal amount of volume. Price managed to briefly test below yesterday’s RTH low before reversing and thrusting higher to put us back to unchanged.

At 8:30am Non-Farm payroll data came in just a touch lower than expectations but when paired with revisions it has solidified many a pundits view that The Fed will raise rates (liftoff) in September. Also on the docket today we have the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3p,.

Yesterday we printed what looked like a trend day down. It looked like this until New York lunchtime when other timeframe (OTF) participation turned off and 2-way (local) trade ensued. Despite my best attempt to label yesterday’s profile print within the confines of Mind Over Market logic, it makes sense to keep an open mind that not every instance in life can be labeled. Thus, it was a trend day that morphed into a long tailed lowercase letter-b, aka liquidation, a temporary phenomenon.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for bulls to attempt the pole climb. They will first need to target and exceed overnight high 4533.75. From there they aren’t likely to find much resistance until way up at 4587.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers struggle and cannot take out overnight high 4533.75 and we roll over and continue probing lower. The book is thick around 4513 but if bears can push down through here I will be looking to target the 7/13 open gap down at 4487.50.

Hypo 3 the morning excitement fizzles into typical summer Friday trade and a 2 way grind takes hold between 4550 and 4510.

Levels:08072015_NQ_VP_afternoon

Comments »

THE SELLOFF WAS CONTAINED

300STANDFunny thing about these market profiles, they give you insight into the nature of a move. This move looks big but all the OTF went to lunch and hasn’t come back since. They’re sipping cocked tails on their sailing ships. That can only mean one thing—the algos are in charge.

With no higher time frame at play here, it’s reasonable to expect some retrace to happen. Tomorrow morning carries a lotto kicker in the form of NonFarm payroll. Will it be worse-than-expected? Will that trigger algo program code 236 aka buy and press out rate hike news?

I think it will. I bought a small TESLA $250 lotto call position just in case.  It was about $0.50 cents

Comments »

New Month, New MAYHEM

If Wall Street cannot put together a decent week coming into August like we did, then you know something is afoot. It is with regret that I inform you we are trending lower.

Unlike most of you wonton gamblers, I keep an open mind. My model suggested everyone was a bit too optimistic heading into the week. That’s how it earned its name, Rose Colored Sunglasses. Everything looks better with rose colored sunglasses. Try them sometime.

My cash troves are high. My largest position is DOC then NUGT. Yes, my Tesla shares are off about 10% but you should know my cost basis is grotesquely lower. I haven’t added to Twitter yet. I will, en mass, one day.

We’re coming into my next zone where buyers may show up, Non Farm payroll is up tomorrow, and I am essentially done for the week.

 

Comments »

Nasdaq Imbalance Uncovered Ahead of Opening Bell

Nasdaq futures are up a touch on the overnight session. The range and volume were normal overnight and contained within Wednesday’s range. Overall the market profile structure shows a slight imbalance that would need lower prices to resolve (see blue drawing on MP chart below).

At 8:30am the Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came in mixed and introduced some sellers onto the tape. We also have natural gas storage data at 10:30am, but investors will be turning their attention to tomorrow morning when the monthly NFP stats are slated for release.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation up day type. Price opened gap up and drove higher but big sellers were seen selling into the drive. By early lunch buyers ran out of steam and the market rolled over. Selling was not dynamic enough to push the day into neutral territory and Tuesday’s open gap remains open.

Heading into today my primary expectation is a choppy session with a downside bias. I expect big rotations to lack follow through making momentum difficult to trade. Look for sellers to push down through the overnight low 4586.75 setting up a gap fill trade down to 4551.75. From there look for sellers to attempt a test below Monday’s low 4540.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push on the open and take out overnight high 4608.75 and make a move to target 4632.

Levels:

08062015_NQ_VP

Comments »

Pick Your Battles

The intraday trader is dead, headlines decree, and anyone caught doing it will bear the albatross of being labeled a degenerate gambler. And most who try (key word try) are. To not trade yourself into degeneracy and blown up casino oblivion you must adhere to certain methods.

Foremost you need a plan. It should cover everything without being complicated. Simplicity is key, slash away at it often. Next you need a way of determining a bias—I cover my methodology every single weekend inside the Exodus Strategy Session. Finally, pick you battles. You have your risk controls, you have your bias, now you need price levels worthy of participating at.

Most of the time is spent not doing anything stupid while being objective and ready to execute at a moment’s notice. Think of a soccer goalie. No action for 40 minutes then you must react in a split second to block an oncoming bullet.

I didn’t trade today because I was distracted. I made it to my trading terminal around 1pm. I could have just popped off shots because of my short bias. It may have worked, I used to jump in and trade like this, but my plan calls for a full morning report before any trades can occur. This is a business and I plan to be in it for many years. You can too if you stop walking up to it like it’s the local craps game.

My book is still being subjected to homo hammer. My latest foray into unplanned, non-stat backed trading, NUGT, is already down ten bags. Tomorrow it will likely be blown out and added to my loss column aside many more double digit stock losses. Stock killah!

Comments »

Bulls and Bears Eye to Eye Heading into Today’s Trade

Nasdaq futures are coming into Tuesday gap down. The overnight session was normal by all measures and featured balanced price action with a slight downward skew. The action was contained within yesterday’s range.

Today is the lightest calendar day of the week economically with only Factory Orders slated for release at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The bulk of the downward move occurred in one big impulse move lower around noon. Once complete we churned sideways for a few hours before responsive buyers stepped and pushed us back to the mid.

Intermediate term we are a few days out from a “check back” to the scene of a major breakout. After bouncing off the former resistance we have stalled a bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into this overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4573.25. I have drawn a green line on my market profile chart around 4575 and will be using this level as my bias pivot. If buyers can push up through this level then I expect them to continue up to 4587.50 then 4593.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers struggle to fill the overnight gap and fail to reclaim the 4575 mark setting up a move below overnight low 4555.75. Look for sellers to test below yesterday’s session low 4540.50 setting up a fast move to the HVN at 4530. Stretch targets are 4515.75 and 4505.50.

Levels:08042015_NQ_VP

Comments »

This Is A Working Week

I don’t work futures every week anymore. I only take action when conditions are statistically skewed in my favor. What does that mean? Most weeks I’m just hanging out on the internet, reading through my sky-high pile of books, and mass flirting via the greatest social media platform ever created: Snapchat.

My productivity is higher than ever, electric literally pulsates from my fingertips like Nikola Tesla plugged into a coil.

To sum things up–cash is high but I am being boot stomped by Twitter. I called new all-time lows in Twitter yet I held onto my position. An astute reader would ask, “What gives Raul, dost thine not possess convictions is ye calls?” All my readers speak like Shakespearean characters, BTW. My answer is this: I have no idea, truthfully, how this story will play out, but I want exposure to keep me sharp. I intend to buy mucho mass TWTR shares, in droves, for the fucking win, at some point.

Meanwhile my NUGT positioning is proving early (I may cut and reassess) and my models are calling for lower equity prices.

Comments »

Not Buying The Guise of Normalcy

Things are starting to unravel a bit despite little more than a ripple showing on the surface. Sellers showed up and knocked the Nasdaq down right where they needed to. Breadth is shit, a scant 38% of stocks are up. My key contextual index, the Nasdaq transports is not yet confirming the weakness.

Nevertheless I went ahead and booked my QLD long (all hail Exodus) and partially segued the funds into NUGT, just like I said I would.

My book is cash heavy and without any short dated call risk.  I am fully prepared for calamity but whether it strikes I am unsure.

 

 

Comments »

Solid Structure Inside The Nasdaq

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week flat after a balanced session of overnight trade.  There were an interesting set of rotations that occurred from about 3:30 to 4:30am.  At that time we shot up nearly 22 point and subsequently gave them all back.  The nature of that move may offer a clue into how today’s trade is likely to transpire.  We could be setting up a choppy Monday session.

The economic calendar is dotted with events as we start August, and already we’ve heard the Personal Consumption/Income/Spending data at 8:30am.  The data came in line with expectations with a few samples a touch better than forecasts.  Also on the docket today is ISM Manufacturing.  As the week matures, start thinking about Friday morning’s NFP data.

Last week we started gap down and by Tuesday we found buyers and began auctioning higher.  The push continued into Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision after which we saw buying.  Thursday opened gap down and quickly found responsive buyers who turned initiative, and Friday we churned out a normal variation down.  Overall we ended the week trying to explore lower prices but not doing a very good job of it.

Heading into today we are working within the confines of several well-established market profiles.  This leads me to my primary expectation of chop with a slight upward bias.  Despite having a bearish signal heading into the week (RCS) I will be looking for buyers to push higher early on to test the 4600 century mark.  I will be looking for sellers here and two way trade to ensue north of the overnight low 4568.25.

Hypo 2 is buyers push up through 4600 then springboard off of it to target 4631.25.  From here it is likely we stall out and see sellers come in and roll us over.

Hypo 3 is sellers come in off the open and take out overnight low 4568.25 setting up a push through the lower profile to target 4555 then 4547.50.

Levels:08032015_NQ_VP

Comments »