iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,748 Blog Posts

NASDAQ set to test the meddle of last Friday’s dip buyers, here is Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, uni-directionally traversing to a new low of week. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer credit at 3pm.

Costco earnings bested analyst expectations and the firm saw same store comps stronger than expected amid coronavirus fear-based purchasing. Shares are down -1.5% in pre-market trade.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range right at the Wednesday VPOC. Buyers worked into the overnight inventory but could not fill the overnight gap. Instead responsive sellers (responsive relative to Thursday open, initiative relative to Wednesday close) stepped in right at the U.S. airstrike of Iran level and reversed the intra day gains, pushing us neutral. We then closed near session low, in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 8581.25.  Look for sellers up at 8584 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, trading down through overnight low 8337.25 to tag 8300. Look for buyers down at 8294.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8258.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down a quick -200 into Thursday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, unidirectional rotating down through the majority of Wednesday’s range, but staying within the cash range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 10am and 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Major retailer Costco is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and two way auction. Sellers were unable to close the overnight gap before buyers stepped in and worked price higher. Said buyers tagged the Tuesday nVPOC then chopped along the midpoint until early afternoon when price squeezed higher. This move had some follow thru late in the day, but we ended up printing an inside day, with the entire range staying inside of Tuesday’s range. We ended near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to close the gap at 8581.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8895 then continue higher, up through overnight high 8909.75. Look for sellers just above at 8921 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers set up a move to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +170 into Wednesday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ future are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight after briefly poking below the Tuesday cash low by a few ticks. This failed auction set the stage for prices to work higher all night, eventually probing a big beyond the Tuesday midpoint. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Tuesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM-non manufacturing/services composite at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and beige book at 2pm.

Super Tuesday saw Democratic contenders Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden split most of the vote.

Yesterday we printed double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved with a open drive lower. Sellers struggled to reclaim Monday’s value area high, a double top print, ushering in buyers who drove price up to 9000. This all happened in the first hour of trade. We then formed a sharp excess low and went range extension down. After a checkback to the daily midpoint, price again rotated lower, eventually dipping down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. Buyers were active throughout the rotation but we ended near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work into the overnight inventory but cannot close the overnight gap. Instead buyers step in around 8624 and work higher, trading up through overnight high 8809. Look for sellers up at 8888 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 8581.25, setting up a move down through overnight low 8508.25. Look for buyers down at 8500 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 gap and go higher, trading up through 8888 and sustaining trade above it, setting up another run to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Super Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the upper quadrant of Monday’s range. Buyers briefly exceeded the Monday high around 3:30am before traders demonstrated dissatisfaction with the G7 finance minister’s decision to hold off on any fiscal easing today in the wake of coronavirus fears. Their verbiage was dovish, but no action taken. This was met with price slipping back to the Globex session’s midpoint.

There are no other economic events today. Today is Super Tuesday and we can expect some political noise throughout the day.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers were able to resolve during an opening two-way auction. Said sellers were rejected away from the Friday range early on. We formed IB low around 10:30am New York and then worked higher, trading up through last Thursday’s midpoint, right up the the weekly ATR band. Price formed a double top here, then retraced back to the midpoint before a second wave of buying rolled in, taking us to a new high of day and right back to the price level we were at when news of the U.S. airstrike on Iran hit the wires several weeks ago. Some of that late afternoon buying was given back during settlement but the day ended in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8917.50. Look for sellers up at 8948.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8785.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8738.50. Look for buyers down at 8700 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8948.25 setting up a move to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Big overnight session, up a quick +90, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme (off the charts) range and volume. The globex session began with a gap down that had price near Friday’s midpoint. From there sellers worked a touch lower before discovering a strong responsive bid. This formed an excess low before buyers went to work resolving the Sunday gap. Price then continued higher, trading up through the Friday high and more, eventually working up beyond the Thursday midpoint before finding sellers. Said sellers erased the gains back to the Friday close (unchanged). As we approach cash open, price is about 90 points higher than the Friday close and moving fast.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment at 10am, 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Also be aware that Berkshire Hathaway reports earnings after the bell.  These earnings could move the whole market.

Last week began with a gap down and saw selling all week. Full on risk off, with investors rotating away from equities. Friday morning markets caught a bid and went into the weekend with a choppy balance, off the lows. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down and two way auction, with price trading down to levels unseen since November 1st. Sellers could not however take out the November first low before buyers stepped in. Buyers then became initiative (initiative relative to Friday open, responsive relative to Thursday close) closing the overnight gap and trading up into Thursday’s lower quadrant before settling into a big chop along the daily midpoint. Late int he session price ramped to a new high of day and closed there.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 8677.25. Look for sellers up at 8715.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to the open gap at 8847.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8505. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 8224.25. Look for buyers down at 8089.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Super Tuesday, coronavirus and a view on everything else from 15,000 feet

Ullr packed up his gear and spun up into the cosmos mid-last week, leaving my snowboarding crew nothing but warm slabs of ice to snowboard on when we arrived in Jackson Hole. So we packed up and headed home. I returned to Mothership around 10pmt EST Saturday night and spent this morning applying my refreshed mind to all things stock market. Now I intend to update you, the good reader of this here Humble Raul Blog (HRB) with everything you need to know heading into the first week of March.

Thank you to everyone who followed along with my adventure on Instragram (@vincalim). Your comments and music advice helped bridge the cold nights and long drives.

Okay back to work.

The President’s Day peak (and my love affair with numbers)

A couple of us around here have a suspicion that major market swings tend to occur around holidays. Something like President’s Day, where we celebrate a renowned hemp grower and wooden-toothed brawler by the name of George Warshington [sic] serves as a near-perfect platform to form a swing high. The day reminded us that we are currently being ruled by a reality teevee host and even worse, we are headed into another wretched election cycle. That’s enough to make even your most hardened speculator want to take some risk off the table. Super Tuesday is likely to be a noisy distraction, and you can bet your bippy there will be no shortage of talking heads, tweeters and attention lovers standing atop whatever soapbox they can, saying the political events of this week are responsible for stock market movement.

This is, of course, all bullshit.

Ignore the noise however you can best. My allies in times like these are numbers and data. There was a numeric oddity right before the top, much more interesting than President’s day, 02/20/2020. Isn’t that a beautiful string of numbers? Just look at it.

Regarding actionable data

Numeric mysticism aside, numbers are cold and dead and factual, and wielded properly they cut through all the nonsense and provide clarity.  Charts are simply numbers plugged into a graph. Most charts have time on the x-axis and price on the y. When used properly, they can tell a story. As I have posited for at least two years, semiconductors are the primary driver of our current secular bull market. Therefore, we can draw conclusions on how these entire stock market is likely to behave from one simple chart—the PHLX Semiconductor index. OBSERVE:

Just as I told my main squeeze, I am sorry I wasn’t around on Valentine’s Day. She received a very goth bouquet of flowers in my absence. Unfortunately, all you received were tweets of me jumping my snowboard off mountains. I am not sorry for myself for missing the big sell-off, for I was making much better use of my time, taking a long sip of ambrosia from the chalice of the gods.

As of today, heading into March, we have two simple action points for understanding the entire stock market. We have a bunch of supply trapped overhead. If (when) we revisit that shaded zone, it will likely behave as resistance, at least for a while. How the market treats those levels will tell a story. More relevant however to the upcoming week is the green line—old resistance. One the the market’s favorite pastimes is converting old resistance into support (and vice versa). Even if we slash down through this level some time next week, it is likely to assert a bid in the market.

As always, to be determined. We ought to remain flexible to the idea that the higher time frame participants will continue to liquidate their equity holdings, causing a deeper gulch to form, but I will be in the betting markets positioning for this level to hold.

Full disclosure: I have been wrong before.

System data generated by Exodus (shameless plug alert)

I am so thoroughly impressed with Exodus. I cannot offer The Fly enough praise. Bear in mind, I receive zero compensation for your paid memberships to this platform. My payment is free access, and I earn my money trading the signals generated by its mother algo. To be honest, I prefer it this way. It keeps my motives pure.

Before the top, we had a buy signal (10-day hybrid overbought bullish cycle) running from February 5th thru the 19th. I am pretty sure about 2% of our entire community took advantage of it (about the same percentage of people who can trade for a living). Its timing was sublime, allowing me to pick up the proverbial nickles in front of the steamroller. While earning +7% on a TQQQ swing trade may seem silly to most of you, had I been inside Mothership, trading opening bells on the /NQ_F, I would have been on the right side of the tape the whole time. Check out the final performance of the popular NASDAQ 100 ETF QQQ over the ten-day period:

S.H.O.M.P.

And we have another signal live now. I normally wouldn’t discuss live signals on the public blog out of respect for Exodus members, but since the cat is already out of the bag, and also since nobody seems to have the huevos to take this trade, I feel okay discussing the hybrid oversold signal in play. I bought TQQQ on Friday morning and will be holding it for nine more trading days, right up into the Thursday before OPEX—a likely brutal quad witching, where the stock market will seek to zero out as many options trading accounts as possible in one fell swoop. Since I am back in action, be sure to drop by this blog after about 9am eastern for my morning trading reports. We are going to take the action one day at a time using Gaussian curves, a data lover’s best friend.

Executing signals through economic events and news

We are headed into a heavy news and event cycle. If you are like me, you spent a good part of your weekend monitoring the coronavirus as best you could, watching hand-washing tutorials and Costco mob hysteria. That is an okay use of our time, I guess, as long as it isn’t affecting our ability to do our jobs. Coronoavirus aside, here are all the events we need to at least be aware of during the upcoming week:

  • Berkshire Hathaway earnings Monday after the bell
  • Super Tuesday
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book Wednesday afternoon
  • Costco earnings Thursday after the bell
  • Nonfarm payrolls Friday before the bell

When I have a system-generated signal, it is not my job to fuss my mind with thoughts of whether or not to take the trade. My job is to execute my plan and that means taking my trades—whether they signal during the opening bell, in the middle of a scheduled economic event or earnings, during a surprise or otherwise. It is my job to be aware of these events, as best as possible, and be prepared for action to accelerate or pivot.

Christian meat withdraws

Do not forget, our competitors in the stock market are primarily folks belonging to one of the many cult offshoots of Christianity that exist here in the United States. These righteous fuckers are being forced by their faith to set aside their beloved Friday hammed burgers and steaks to prove through suffering that they are worthy of mercy from their god.

Have you ever taken meat away from a carnivore? They become aggressive and confused, like rabid dogs. Be okay with the idea of standing aside and letting these animals tear each other apart. The eastern philosophy of the aesthetics is particularly valuable in times like these. Now is an excellent time to hone your ability to sit and listen and fast.

The Christians will be safe to fatten up on disgusting bacon and ham flesh after April 12th.

Good verses evil and after market deceit

On Friday evening the Wall Street Journal reported that vulture capitalist Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. has elected four of his people to Twitter’s board of directors. Claims are being made that Paul intends to remove CEO Jack Dorsey from his position.

I have not mixed my words when it comes to Jack Dorsey. I consider him my second most significant role model behind only Elon Musk. His ability to sit in silence for months on end, his brave move to ban all political advertising from Twitter, his nose ring in Congress and simple manner of dress—the world needs more @Jack and way way waaaaay less Paul.

Twitter is my second largest investment. Shares of TWTR were allegedly higher after the bell Friday on this news. I do not put much faith in after market moves, in this instance or otherwise. I never do. Regardless, this situation demands close attention. If Twitter goes the way of Elliott Management, it puts the safety of the entire internet at risk. Jack keeps Twitter safe, and in doing so he keeps Twitter the only social media platform left for people to safely be heard.

He banned Zerohedge, and I share Joe Weisenthal’s sentiment on this matter. Mixed feelings, but in general life is too short to follow dumb dumb accounts like ZH or QTR:

Even tonight, Sunday, there will be temptation to pull up quotes on the futures markets. To see if prices continue to collapse. I urge you to avoid such activity. Are you going to be taking trades tonight? Does that information need to be consumed? There will be plenty of time to work these markets come Monday.

Have a good meal. Hug your family. Make love to your wife. Watch a movie or read a book. Light a fire. Exercise if you are restless. Set up your weekly to-do list. All better uses of your time.

Recent Comment

Finally I would like to address comments left on my last blog entry because I appreciate anyone who suffers their way though the Humble Raul Blog. We are a rare breed, not tethered to some company that requires us to filter our voice. Straight up speculators whose sole intent is to extract as many fiat american dollars from the global financial complex as possible, while being as kind as possible to our fellow earth inhabitants.

Juice, you asked me what good my free will is if my fate is predetermined by the gods.

I sat at a table with the gods twice on my trip, half frozen to the side of a rock, in silent contemplation with the celestial plane. By loving my fate and accepting whatever it brings, I am blessed with clarity. What good is free will if I allow life the ability to cause me suffering? Letting go of control and going with the flow allows me to have an optimal grip on reality. That way when I make my way though the world, no one’s master and no one’s slave, as Marcus Aurelius so eloquently stated, I am on the right path.

Cheers and thank you for the comment

Exodus members, while most of my convictions are outlined above, be sure to check out the 275th edition of Strategy Session, which is live now. The concentrated money flows section, in particular, is important.

 

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High-level thoughts and conviction investments

I want to share my high level thoughts and conviction investments before I renuciate all capitalistic pursuits in exchange for a simple life in the mountains. I will be off the grid until March.

The purose of this blog entry is to help us both gain a visceral understanding of why I have *faith* in my investments. This will serve to fortify my emotional state for when the inevitable uncertainties of long-term commitments arise, and maybe spark some ideas of your own.
The cat is out of the bag. In 2016, a reality TV host became President of the free world. A ruthless capitalist usurped career politicans to take the White House. In 2018, Bitcoin and other digital currencies established themselves as players inside the financial ecosystem.

Together these events called into question the role of nation states, their alleged leaders and the ability of these leaders to force their will upon the collective consciencness of humanity, democratically or otherwise.

Enter 2020, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has seen. We are tracking the PHLX Semiconductor index closely, which has been validating our theroy about what is driving our current economic expansion. Learning computers. Only a handful of companies are at scale and positioned to capture most of the growth. Foremost are big tech companies. Champions of the interwebs. It is becoming apparent that the CEOs of Big Tech are the true leaders of the free world and the only ones progressing society in a positive direction.

My two favorite CEOs are Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey. I hold reverance for them both and emulate them in my own endeavors. Elon puts his net worth on huge issues facing humanity and makes it sexy. Jack is a modern Cato the Younger. Humble and pure. Twitter is the subconscious inner dialogue of humanity and a must own stock. Twitter is my #2 largest position behind Tesla.

With nations and their politicians losing a grip on society, what are affluent left to do? They love having a seat at the proverbial head table. They have little choice but to take to the public markets and secure what stake they can afford in the equity of these giants. Names like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. These are conviction investments. These companies are countries, only more powerful.

Supply of quality tech equity is low. Have you ever played Monopoly? There’s only one winner. There are only a handful of companies worth owning. Their share prices no longer make sense using historic valuation methods. Those were more simple times, when businesses merely bribed or lobbied the state. Now these firms are the states.

Amazon is a ubiquitous nation that doesn’t care about the silly lines drawn on maps by humans reverting to their animalistic ways. This is Jeff Bezos’s world. We’re just living in it.

Next up is the battle for who will feed the ultimate consumer—the hungry American. Heading into the ’20s there are only a few companies at the distribution scale needed to augment the way food winds up in people’s kitchens and ultimately their bellies. Obviously there is some crossover here with Amazon, which is why Amazon is an absolute MUST OWN. A rumor is passing through one of our affluent neighborhood that the entire Kroger organization is being tailored for am Amazon buyout. The origin of the rumor is salient enough that I am all for investing in Kroger.

The other top players in autonomous grocery are Walmart and Costco. Both must owns.

Finally we circle back to digital currency. You would have to be insane to ignore this asset class. Foremost, I believe ownership of Facebook shares is necessary until we see resolution of their Libra scheme. I cannot wait until Mark Zuckerberg can reward us Libra coins for good behavior on his platforms. I believe this will put an end to fear mongering, spreading lies and hate once and for all. There is something pavlovian about our egos, even the most masculine. Look at how many rough and tough guys are going vegan after that Netflix documentary (Netflix weilds an interesting sword in modern society, but they do not make my conviction investment list). Libra could end up being the global reserve currency, should it succeed in going live. Even the toughest 8chan shit poster will fall in line for some Libra coins.

Every investor should have a portfolio of digital coins. I must admit I am not sophisticated enough to have clarity on exacty which coins. I hold bitcoin, bitcoin cash, bitcoin SV, ethereum and EOS.

There you have it. These are my high level thoughts and conviction investments. Perhaps a few weeks of sleeping on the cold earth and breathing sweet mountain air will reveal another. My fate is unknown, predetermined by the gods. Maybe while in the mountains, I will be granted a peak into the doors of Valhalla and handed stock picks from the norse gods.

Thank you for your time,

Raul Santos, February 14th, 2020

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Gap down in range ;-) huge NFP beat, here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping briefly to a new all-time high during globex trade before settling into balance above Thursday’s midpoint. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger-than-expected, expand the following tweet to see more info on the job’s report:

As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have the Fed releasing their semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress at 11am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers quickly resolved during the opening auction. From then-on buyers were in control, working price up near all-time highs before settling into a tight balance along the high. We ramped up near end-of-day but stopped a few points shy of new highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 9454.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 9471, setting up a move to tag 9500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 9395. Look for buyers down at 9379.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9341.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ holds onto early week gains, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, coming to within a few tick of record highs (but not exceeding them) before falling into a tight balance along the highs. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

The only other economic events today are 4- and 8-weekT-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a pro gap up to new all-time highs. Then an open drive down send price careening lower, pausing briefly to chop around 9400 before continuing lower to close the overnight pro gap. Sellers continued a bit lower before finding responsive buyers near Tuesday’s NVPOC. It was choppy from here, with buyers eventually ramping price back up to the daily midpoint. We ended the session just below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9383.25. From here we continue lower, taking out overnight low 9375 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 9342 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo three buyers gap-and-go higher, defending 9400 before working up through overnight high 9460, setting up a move to 9500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ races higher overnight, even more coronavirus fear subsides, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday pro gap up, a second pro gap in a row, after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:30am New York when some news of a coronavirus cure spiked price higher. Since then, there was a bit of a balance around 9420 and as we approach cash open, price is hovering at record highs, up beyond 9450.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services composite at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and methodically discovered higher prices. After taking out the 9300 century mark the auction tightened up and balanced for a bit before continuing higher and ended near high of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for the higher timeframe to be active. We are out of balance. Primary hypo is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to tag the 9500 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and check back to that 3:30am news, working down to 9353.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9326.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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