Music Genome Project FTW

What website has 1.1 billion user hours in the month of May, 70% mobile traffic, and an effective mobile advertising strategy?  Yes exactly, Pandora.  So 770 million hours of mobile traffic were glued to Pandora.  Wow, big number.  That’s plenty of time to throw in a MILLION commercials or so.  You think commercials are free?  All this I’m saying to pry your eyes from the subscriber rates.  They don’t matter.  Stop it.  They don’t.

I know people enjoy Spotify.  That doesn’t bother me.  What, we can only have one online radio in the world?  Watch for Pandora listening hours to continue increasing and this to inevitably lead to a profitable quarter.  Then calmly walk to the nearest door and slam it on your toe if you think the company is a broken business model.  People take pride in curating their Bon Jovi channel.  They love fingering the “thumbs down” and mentally saying, “Fuck you and your music John Mellencamp.  You pussy!  It’s my life!”  So while Spotify lets you share how culturally sound you are with your Facebook friends, Pandora takes your input and builds stations you love to listen to.

It’s not broken.  And it’s going to be harder to obsolete than maps and business reviews.

Perhaps it doesn’t stroke the ego as much as other social companies.  But what it lacks in wack it more than makes up in panache.

Now that I’ve aired out a bit of objective data and a whole slew of subjective data, let me briefly show you what actually has me positioned aggressively in P.  Behold! The chart art:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bGjWPRIG5A&feature=youtube_gdata_player

It’s been humbling riding the entire death wagon of the post Facebook roadshow.  Oh how naïve I am, to think I would make short term gains playing a hot sector.  Correction: I am naïve for ignoring the charts and everything they were telling me.

This is what happens when you find a stranger in the woods.  This is what happens.  I have a methodology.  It’s simple really—and it’s based on price action just as it has been for years.  For years it has treated me well.  Then I thought, “Hey, let’s change things up a bit I love social stocks.”  So I built a portfolio consisting almost entirely of social names.  All was well as the charts supported the thesis at the time.  But soon I was caught, deer in the headlights, as an envoy of fifteen Mack trucks barreled down a steep grade carrying sell orders.  Instead of sashaying my rickshaw of stocks to the shoulder, up atop a hill in cash, I figured fuck it, I’ll jog down the middle of the road and onlookers will watch with suspenseful glee as said death trucks part like the red sea.  LET MY PEOPLE GOOOO MUTHA FUCKAAAS.

Of course anyone watching saw the carnage to follow:

My left arm, amputated by the mirror of the first truck (ZNGA)

Both legs, mangled and partially severed by two trucks passing each other (SVVC and GSVC)

My dick, smacked by a large rock hurling from a gravel train (AMZN)

And the rickshaw continues to be dragged downhill, by two hand job homos in a small Volvo truck (YELP)

And here I lay, a bloody mess, confident in my only remaining appendage, my strong arm.  In it I hold two items:  a match, and a stick of dynamite.  These last two shreds of dignity, are what I intend to use to propel my mangled body to the top of this hill.  TRIP AND PANDORA.  TRRRRIIIIP AAAAAND PAAAN DORA the explora.

They still look good on the charts, they fucked shorts up during last month’s earnings more than any other name, and they could rip hard.  I have a few other names, buttons on my jacket if you will.  But what are left of this idea, this thesis, are TRIP and P.

And they could still be losers.  So don’t be a loser but instead trade them well and based on your own risk profile.  I have mine all wrapped up on these names.

To the moon if it’s the last goddamn thing I do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AD5fX4sveo&feature=youtube_gdata_player

I find the market behavior into the close very interesting and significant.  If you’re trading a daily chart, a setup isn’t official until the close.  The close also has potential to feature the tension of bloated fat fucks who have watched a position reverse.  Such was the case of all major indices into today’s close.  But while the squeeze occurring in the indices didn’t last and has completely vanished afterhours, Pandora closed high-of-day.  Then it spent the next 15 minutes after cash close BLASTING ~4% higher on 2 million shares.  Eventually it settled out around $10.73 just over a percent higher.

Without reading too far into the move, I refilled my position.  I did this for three price behavior reasons:

Pandora’s relative strength throughout an otherwise murderous social sector

If Pandora can trader higher tomorrow, it’s setting up a higher low trough into the weekend

It backfilled the earnings gap

As a company, I continue to enjoy the name because they are the mobile pimps thus far.  The analysts seem too focused on premium member growth rates and the $10.00 price point.  I care for premium users not one bit.  It’s an excellent advertising venue on mobile.  That’s huge hombre.  That’s something Facebook and to a lesser extent Google struggle with.  MONETIZING MOBILE TRAFFIC IS THE BIG TO DO.   Music Genome Project is a fun music discovery tool and provides value where competitors don’t.  We’re down nearly 40% since IPO.  Fucking murderous.

So I’m looking for price to continue behaving well going forward.  A massive win for the bulls is recapturing $12 and holding above.  Bears want the opposite sub $10.  These are your signposts.

I trigged a stop on my AMZN position today.  It was one of my larger positions and my risk was $212.50 where we spent several sessions basing.  It’s a name I still want a piece of but the equity environment is filthy.  Valuations continue to be questioned and growth stories have taken a back seat to risk off positioning.

I’m 6% off my high watermark set pre Facebook IPO.  Am I saddened?  Sleeping with whores and abusing drugs in a relentless pity party?  Clubbing with down-and-out Paris Hilton offering my rebound services?  Certainly not fine chaps!  I don’t have time for foolishness.  Instead I’m being a good trader.  Assessing the damage and learning how not to blow my fucking dick off again.

First things first, 1.5% portfolio gyrations are something one comes to expect when trading hot money speculative stocks.  I’ve accepted this and given my positions room to, “do their thing.”  The gyrations are certainly more acceptable when they end the day green.  Something they haven’t done for eight trading sessions.

Stocks that behaved well and adhered to a semblance of charting: Z, TRIP, YELP, PCLN, AMZN, and P.

Stocks that knife through support and resistance while throwing up gang signs and giving you a lawn job: SVVC and GSVC

Stocks whose cocks are right like broken clocks: FB

You see the thing with YELP is, and this is what the trolls on Fly’s board were phallicly exclaiming, the chart has a series of lower lows and lower highs.  That’s momo 101 for lower prices.  Sell the rips, cover on the dips.  Hence why I own the stock still, some 25% underwater {sarcasm}.  This may seem like a dickish armature move, noob follows pro, noob gets squashed.  But I’ve expected very little from the name except face numbing volatility.  It’s been one of my smallest positions this entire beating.  I’m patient as a monk with the name, and will add to it very soon.  I know, don’t add to losers.  I know.  I am averaging into the name and plan to hold it a long, ass, time.  Because I like mafias and they offer internet “protection”.  As long as they keep the IRS off their books it’s a sound business in my opinion.

So if you made it to the end of my post, you’ve read through much dick verbiage.  Congratulations and thank you for reading.

Current holdings by weight: Z, TRIP, ADS, AWK, NTAP, YELP, GSVC, FB, and P.  Cash around 45%

My port finished the day down half a percentage but it feels like a one percent loss shit show.  Social stocks are behaving so shittaly (yes, it’s a new word) they make miners look good.  And I hate miners, all kinds.  I really hate the way these social issues have traded since Facebook, obviously, because they robot grind lower.  Then they simmer for a bit only to knife lower amidst an index bounce.

A few weeks back I theorized we could see above average performance from the socials if the indices would ever bounce since they performed relatively strong during the April/May correction.  It seemed simple enough but has been proved MORTALLY WRONG much to my chagrin.

The path is now clear however.  What we can now expect from the social stocks is a negative correlation to the major indices.  Look for names like P, FB, LNKD, ZNGA, TRIP, and fugly GSVC to flash green on your trading platform during down days.  This seems outright bizzardo which is why it may happen in the #costanza marketplace.

I made only one move today, shedding the QID hedge.  I really only carried the protection because of the holiday weekend and not wanting to close out all my longs.  Today was the perfect scenario to beat a social bull; crush the social names and rip the index higher.  Needless to say, I see more upside in the QQQ this week.

I remain steadfast in the following positions, by weight:  AMZN, TRIP, ADS, UPS, Z, AWK, NTAP, YELP, GSVC, FB, and P.

I may add to P soon and AMZN needs to get moving or it’s gone.

As the likes of GSVC FB YELP and Z seek to destroy my financial grubstake, money gained from grinding day after day in the depths of Gotham City, I find myself doing nothing more than sampling the sounds of this weekend’s electronic musicians.  I understand taking risk off.  Believe me, I get it.  Many of these financial planners, these human paraquat dicksukers that hang around investment parlors jockeying phones while sporting trendy mullets and shiny tracksuits are scared of their own shadows.  They’re taking risk off.  They really got burned at the turn of the millennium and they have the rehab bills to prove it.  They’re homos.

Please take no offense if I am describing you.  Just hop in your little red Mercedes convertible and pop that ball cap over your bald spot.  Your 32-foot bayliner and Van Halen cassettes are waiting for you at the marina for an exciting weekend.  Enjoy a few fist pumps and “fuck yeahs” as you cruise the disease infested lakes.  Just leave me the fuck alone.

I will be examining the carnage this weekend from my perch high atop the bludgeoned skyscrapers of our crime infested town.  It’s going to be a hot weekend.  Be prepared for a freak show.

Don’t read too far into this selloff we’re experiencing in the socials. It is bullshit.  I promise you there will be a day when we look at these prices with awe.  Some of you, the less brave asexual types who doubted the revolution, will then surgically remove your balls and sell them at a fundraiser.  A dinner where sautéed balls are the main course.

What you need to do is protect your capital and weather the storm.  Keep cash level around.  My cash is currently around 30% with another 5% in AWK and another 5% in QID.  QID has been rendered useless since the rest of the fucking NASDAQ is spending the day making sausage.  It’s shitty insurance for socials.  Take my word for it.

Have a happy fucking holiday everybody and happy birthday Monsieur Le Fly Tropicana Clawhammer.

Pandora lost less money than analysts expected and guided in line to slightly optimistic.  Have I mentioned how integral I think Pandora is to the mobilization of electronics experience?  Next time you’re running on the hamster wheel take a look at the iPhone strapped to the person next to you, IT’S PLAYING PANDORAH.  The stock is up 10% after hours and should be on your momo radars this quarter.

The rest of the social stocks breathed a collective sigh before the market made it’s grandiose afternoon comeback.  GRANDIOSE AFTERNOON COMEBACK uugh!  It feels like a sentiment shift.  Chess is keeping us honest posting his monthly SPY chart and the bulls certainly have their work cut out for them.  But as we trade into the holiday weekend, I suspect stocks will be accumulated with great vigor.

Just this morning I was considering taking my cash levels to unprecedented highs.  I wanted to see how we closed.  The closers came in and lifted the offer.

I caught the rip in TRIP because I was holding long and EXPE was helping out.  It’s on fresh highs and guess what stocks at their highs do?  They go higher exactly.  I like the name until we see some selling then I’ll scale off another 1/3.  My position is already down to 2/3 so I’m being patient with scaling.

Zillow ripped hard all afternoon.  It made my day as it closed nearly HOD.  Considering the downdraft it experience all last week, overdone IMO, the stock has room to run.  I’m targeting $45.50.

Amazon is holding on technically, but my thoughts on this movie streaming situation are mixed.  I need to better understand it and would appreciate anyone who cares to shed insight into the Paramount deal.

Going to see a big pop band tonight see yous later friends,

I’ve seen several traders comment both today and yesterday about purchasing Facebook just to say they did it or were part of it.  I bought some yesterday in the $33’s and sold it today when it failed to hold the same level.  It was about a 2% loss on 3% of my assets so it cost me 6 basis points.  Oh the vanity.  We are all so intelligent, yet we commit our resources (money and metal) to trading something with very little in the way of a plan.  We are fucking clowns.  Well Chess isn’t, he’s Iceman this year.  I’m sure being his wingman in #12631 is enjoyable.

I can tell you without a doubt something you already know: social stocks chop dicks off.  Whose dicks said stocks choose to chop off depends on who is in control of the tape.  Sellers are in control of the tape thus social stocks are chopping buyers’ and investors’ dicks off.  How’s that for a syllogism?

How does one whether such storms?  Step aside or dollar cost average and pray for days where more buyers exist than sellers.  Because the flow continues to be sell sell sell.  There are sellers coming out of cellars.  They’re everywhere! Like zombies! Hysteria!

On a more composed note, at least we not seeing all stocks up, all stocks down dollar correlation hell trading.  I hate that shit.  It’s happening to a much smaller degree than last summer.  Eventually these companies have to trade on their own merits and when that happens many of the social names stand to appreciate in value.  Just be sure you have some dry powder stored to take advantage of the opportunity.

Current holdings, by weight:  AMZN, TRIP, ADS, UPS, P, YELP, and GSVC

I keep my dry power in cash and AWK

Remember to trade your plan.  And if you don’t have a plan, close your trading accounts.  And if you’re trading something for vanity and such, I got a better idea for you:  buy some shit at your nearest high-end retailer.  If you live in the po-dung regions of ‘merica, buy them fancy big ass tires for your pickup truck.  And some chrome bumper balls.

If you are fortunate enough to have some cabbage on hand after last week’s calamity, you’ve come to the market when inventory is on sale.  Deals are already flying off the shelf.  Look at TRIP.  It’s not going to let you in.  And that’s fine.  Go buy some Coca Cola it’s a solid company and you can go about your daily malaise without heart issues, free from the whims of the market, and only troubled by red lights and such.  TRIP and them (sic) will test your meddle and you better have your finger on the trigger else be ZUCKED THE FUCK OUT.

Now Amazon on the other hand you may be better able to wrap your mind around its value.  It’s the gigantic superstore on the internet, and it looks like a good entry point today after pulling back last week.  Listen, the earnings growth from the company is impressive and they’re a great competitor in the tablet market.  They give Kindles away for free (disruption?) to entice you to shop with them MORE.  My friend, this is good business.

I initiated a buy of FB north of $33.00 based on 33 voodoo and nothing more.

When P turns green you can buy more, in my opinion.  Solid company, solid business model.  Wait for green close.

Finally, don’t take my advice blind, fool.  Do due diligence (doo doo?).

More later.  In comeback mode,

For the last three weeks save for these last two trading days I’ve mocked the weakness of the indices as my social stocks continued to appreciate in value.  Well they caught up to the rest of the losers in a two day trading massacre.  The carnage is stunning.

I can say without a doubt my interactions with the godly folks of iBC saved my portfolio from complete shim sham Colombo destruction (I don’t even know what that means but it sounds devastating).  Chess highlighted RAX as a short while I was long.  It broke a key level I highlighted earlier this week and I didn’t hesitate to sell.  A massive murderhole avoidance.  Next was SVVC being sold north of $25.00 this morning after the sentiment turned downright nasty between iBC and Twitter.  I knew it was time to sell.  The community here is of serious value and I look back on my trading before such venues as the dark ages.  I thank each person committed to this social stock market communication game and salute your efforts.  I know sometimes it can seem like we’re talking in the wind, but the feedback loop here is top notch.

I cut exposure way down, and I’m sitting at nearly 60% cash and another 8% in AWK.  The stocks that in my view didn’t go full shit show in price are TRIP AMZN and P.  I kept my exposure and will very likely add to the names next week should we see constructive price activity.

I initiated ADS today.  The company is an integral piece of my thesis and I’m glad to get back into the name.  The price activity requires further analysis but on my intermediate timeframe I like where price is.  UPS is the other position I retain and consider critical to the future.  It has nearly wiped out its 2012 gains and is still suspect to lower prices.  However should it bounce next week I may add shares.

YELP and GSVC reminding everyone to play small, define your risk, and if you want them long term you give them tons of room the fuck around.  I can’t imagine being without GSVC though.  I like the companies they hold far too much.

Get your study on this weekend.  Build on any losses as learning experiences and keep your eyes out for opportunity.  It’s still out there.

Cheers,

I feel like Lily sums up my week here: