NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Wednesday of February down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, in a choppy sort-of way, first exceeding the Tuesday high around 8pm New York then falling back down to the Tuesday midpoint before walking back up and making a new overnight high. That second high happened around 8am and tagged the 0.618 retrace of this entire sell move (from 2/21 at 8:20pm through to 2/23 at 9:50am). Since then price has dropped about -250 points, and as we approach cash open price is hovering about +100 above the Tuesday midpoint.
On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am then a 5-year note auction at 1pm.
Major semiconductor maker NVIDIA is set to report earnings after the bell.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap down then a sell drive down at the open. Sellers drove down and closed the gap left behind on MLK day before discovering responsive buyers who formed a sharp excess low. Buyers sent the auction higher, slicing through the daily midpoint and pushing an early range extension up. Price then fell back down to the midpoint and was sort of chopping all over it before buyers reasserted themselves and mounted a huge +300 point ramp into the close. Price closed in the upper quadrant of range.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,155.25. Look for sellers ahead of 13,200 and for two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go down through overnight low 13,027 and tag 13,000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers take out overnight high 13,295.50 on their way to tagging 13,300.
Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:
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