It is hard being the voice of reason amid a bunch of wanton degenerates out to cure bordem via stock market speculation, but I have worked hardt for nearly 15 years setting my foundation stones and building my humble fort, and if I have to be strong for others then so be it.
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. – Napoleon Bonaparte
I’ve never been one of the cool kids on Fintwitter, and after all the salacious things I’ve written, I don’t expect them to usher me into their clique anytime soon. If somehow you’ve stumbled upon this here humble Raul blog (hRb) it would seem you have good karma. And if you’ve stuck with me through my worst, we must be like some kind of homies. Thank you all for your time.
Regarding markets—every model and system built to tell me which side of the tape is likely to be controlled is telling me the last week of April is setting up to be a bull run. That being said, we have pretty much every company that actually matters in 2020 set to report earnings:
- Google parent Alphabet, INC report Tuesday after-market-close (AMC)
- Microsoft, Tesla and Facebook Wednesday AMC
- Apple and Amazon Thursday AMC
If you opened a Robin Hood account and bought just those names with the intention of holding them for 10 years, I would pat you on the back and set you on your way, knowing you’ll be better for it. Add other institutions of the new millennium like Costco Walmart and Square and I’d be like, damn son have you been stalking me?
I still have a massive Twitter position. It remains my second largest holding after Jack managed to strike a deal with the perverted old kooks running Silver Lake and Elliott management, two firms who used hostility to grab several chairs on the Twitter board of directors. I do not know why I’ve held Twitter for so many years, but as long as Jack is in charge I shall remain.
I invest primarily in jockeys, not horses.
I invest in jockeys and also horses that resemble the mythological gods of ancient civilizations. Like Alphabet, Inc. They are omnipotent, benevolent, merciful and forgiving, like Jesus. Costco is like Seshat, the ancient Egyptian goddess of wisdom, knowledge and writing because the entire eidos of Costco was created by a bunch of accountants. Cost+12% margin. That’s it. Simple and irresistible, like a goddess.
I invest in Facebook hesitantly, because I like the idea of Mark Zuckerberg being able to issue Libra coins to people for good social media behavior. This may help cure the internet of it’s psychopathic streak, or at least push this twisted psyche out of the core social platforms. Keep the crazies down in the 8chan dungeon with the rest of those friggin’ defects. Let us progressive and compassionate thinkers inherit the promised land.
Welp, I’ve about tapped out on that tangent.
Models are bullish, lots of wildcards on deck. There is a FOMC rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. The gambling halls down in Chicago give it a 0% chance of being a live meeting, meaning rates are entirely predicted to stay unchanged at 0%. And having already opened the spigots wide open on direct bond buying, the Fed seems to be out of major moves. That being said, how the market reacts Wednesday afternoon after the Fed Chair conference is likely to dictate direction into the second half of the week.
I will be pressing longs only until then, working to capture handles in the NASDAQ 100 whist letting my swings and long-term investments run.
Cheers to your month-end lads, may be be strong and gainful,
Raul Santos, April 26th 2020
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