NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Globex kicked off Sunday night with a gap down an drive lower, the price action being spurred by news that the Sauids are planning an all-out price war in the oil markets along with continued coronavirus uncertainty. We hit the circut breaker around 5:30am New York and have been halted since. As we approach cash open, I am unsure, but it appears we will open below last week’s low, putting us in the range of late-October prices.
On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Last week began flat and then with buyers active. Said buyers worked higher through Tuesday before we chopped sideways midway through Thursday. Then sellers stepped back in and reversed much of the weekly gains. There was a strong ramp late Friday afternoon. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a pro gap down. Buyers drove higher during the first hour of trade and then managed to press range extension up. Buyers however were unable to reclaim the microbalance set up during the mid-week chop. Instead responsive sellers (responsive relative to Friday open, initiative relative to Thursday close) stepped in and reversed the day’s range, pushing into a neutral print. Then late in the session we ramped to a new high of day and closed near it.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to 8000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 8188 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 8200 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to 8481 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
