Well lads, my reservoir of deep insight is tapped for now. I suppose I laid it all out last Sunday. I came back to work last week and did okay. My ass was handed to me trading NASDAQ futures Wednesday, but then I pulled a sick win late Friday. There weren’t many pockets of strength last week, but my 10-year grocery investment theme was validated, both via Kroger and Costco earnings.
The way attorneys and other financial alligators crawled out of their holes and attacked Robinhood on Monday disgusted me, and reminded me why I spend much time bathing in mountain rivers and otherwise firming up my constitution for a simple life on the land. Bankers and attorneys make me sick. A polluted lot, and while I make a decent living trading these financial markets, I need to be ready to leave it all behind when my soul no longer can tolerate being around these misanthropes. Or am I the misanthrope?
Life is a mirror.
Boy oh boy, this Sunday’s update is off to a cheery start. Thank you for your time, rant over. Back to the markets.
Call me superstitious, but seeing a Friday the 13th on the horizon before the Ides of March AND a quad witching OPEX has me feeling cautious.
And let’s not forget [let’s not forget, dude] that Monday is a full moon.
It looks like the markets are setting up to make new lows (full disclosure: I have been wrong before). The way I see it playing out, is a rally to start the week. Something to draw in some FOMO dip buyers, then Thursday the selling starts, accelerating into Friday and printing a real horror show candle into the weekend.
I still have a swing trade on in TQQQ. I do not waffle into and out of Exodus system trades. I trade them the way the system itself generates its statistics, 10-day hold. This week, the 10-day cycle ends on Thursday, close-of-business, and perhaps that data point is a major factor in my forecast for the week.
It could go the other way, weakness early in the week, scaring people into selling off risk, looking real bleak, then bottoming Thursday before absolutely destroying bears Friday.
Both of my forecasts are based on the idea of whichever move begins the week being reversed near the end of the week. They could both be wrong.
Writing this all out only serves to solidify something I realized while preparing the Strategy Session—I do not have a clear read on the tape. There is nothing wrong with admitting that. I will tread lightly this week. You won’t find conviction from me, just an ape man sitting on the riverbanks, listening to the wind.
One of the biggest challenges I had to overcome as an independent hustler and financial market trader is the desire to work. To do something for the sake of feeling productive. Often times the best course of action is doing nothing. I satisfy my monkey brain by digging holes in the back yard or busting concrete with a sledged hammer. Much better than forcing trades and losing thousands.
Some old Italian fella found my posting on Craigslist and asked if I can save his enormous coy pond. It is the size of a modest in ground pool. It’s a hideous mess, having been neglected for four or five years. You can tell it had some magic to it perhaps several years ago (he painted an elaborate cinder block waterfall a nice blue and embossed it with golden fishys) but I had to be frank with him. I told him I could come smash it into bits, fill the hole with the rubble, then smooth it over with about 15 yards of top soil. Some jabronies quoted him ten stacks to do the demo. I told him I could do it for three.
So maybe he takes me up on the gig. I don’t know, frankly I don’t care beyond wanting to help a nice old Italian man move on to a more suitable home and wanting all his boulders for my back yard and having some grunt work to keep me busy.
I work hardt.
So that’s it. Long term investments are validated and won’t be touched. I have a swing trade to close out. I will be treading very lightly in the futures markets heading into the Ides of March. And if it is the will of the gods, I’ll have some grunt work to keep me busy for a few days and some boulders for my back yard.
Recent Comments
Juice – I can do my best, and do. I still think the outcome of all these efforts is beyond my control. Fate, is inevitably determined.
Exodus members, the 276th edition of Strategy Session. Check out the story the PHLX semiconductor index is telling. I am bearish.
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