I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,790 Blog Posts

In like a LION: models remain BULLISH to start March

I am the most ruthless trader on ‘fin-twitter’.  Not that it matters.  It doesn’t.  But I am.

The only reason I blog is to clarify my thoughts to a peer group I respect. By forcing my thoughts into words, I have a mechanism for owning for any goblins hiding in my brain.

My biggest weakness has always been over-confidence.  It makes me rush and take senseless risk.  I’ve never been afraid of dying, even though I’ve been quite close three times.

Being on the right side of this v-shape recovery since it began has resulted in an exceptionally long win streak, and I’ve been dancing on the heads and cocks of my competition for the last few days.  I sense some hubris in my bull-trot.

That being written, the models lads, the ones guiding my whole approach, they remain bullish.  Now lets add some context.

Semiconductors.  They have a little potential bear trap setting up.  That ugly looking red candle that recently printed—if we make a sharp move lower soon, it will entice sellers to jump into the SOX.  It could end up they jump into the proverbial hole, where they are subsequently trapped, and eventually killed.

Seasonality.  Monday kicks off the first full week of March.  New month, new money needing to go to work.  Everyone says we are entering a tough spot, seasonality-wise.  All I need to do is pull up QQQ inside Exodus and voila!  I can cut through all the chatter with dat-rr.  March has seen the most popular NASDAQ ETF higher 68.42% of the time, better than any other month:

Sentiment.  This is a hated rally.  I refuse to drudge up any proof.  You have a device that can access Twitter, yes?  Spend a few hours rolling around in that cesspool of misery.  The planet, fucked.  Politics, a disaster.  War, any moment now.  Markets, rigged!

Put it all together.  These are prime (primal?) conditions to make hay as a speculator.  You have the tools, what you choose to do with them is up to you.

This week’s strategy session ends with a Seneca quote that I think all traders can meditate on this month:

“Above all, it is necessary for a person to have a true self-estimate, for we commonly think we can do more than we really can.”

Listen, we all have a unique set of strengths.  Whether or not we overestimate them depends on whether we can keep our ego in check.  Success can make honestly assessing your strengths, and the limits of those capabilities even more difficult.  Long breaks from trading have always been my best means of assessing what needs to be done.  Then I build mechanisms that augment my approach.  Rules.  Systems.  And so on.

I have so much h*cking respect for my fellow iBankCoin misfits.  We come here and talk shop with the explicit intent of extracting fiat from the global finance markets.  We are more powerful as a community.  So thank you for coming along for the ride and best of luck to you out there.

RAUL SANTOS, March 3rd 2019

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