NASDAQ futures are coming into the last day in February with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, maintaining trade inside the Wednesday range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint. At 8:30am GDP and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out in-line with expectations.
Also on the economic calendar today we have the US Treasury auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11am, then 4- and 8-week bills at 11:30am.
All the major impact economic/political/social events of the week are complete. Any market moving news at this point would have to be unexpected.
Yesterday we printed what I can best describe as a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down, and after buyers sharply resolved the gap down with a spike higher, sellers stepped in and drove price lower. Price drove lower right until 10:30am. They never pressed the market range extension down. Instead we sharply rallied off the lows, forming an excess low, up through the midpoint, and closed near session high.
Double distribution trend up because the daily VPOC shifted to the highs near end-of-day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7122.25. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7127. Look for sellers up at 7136.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally us up to 7151.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 7072.50, setting up a move down through Wednesday low 7048. Look for buyers down at 7030.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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