“Cautiously optimistic”

Sometimes interesting things happen inside a data set.  A rare quirk that makes you remember the specific rules of your system.  Today’s IndexModel reading is the exact same as the hybrid Exodus score, so the spread between the two is zero.

This has never happened.

If the IndexModel score were one one hundredth lower, it would trigger the bunker buster signal—my favorite signal—an alert of ultra-violent markets that knife lower and ultimately form a tradeable low.

But instead the model is neutral.

I have been bearish based off of extreme model signals many moons ago, back on February 4th.  I laid into Jerome Powell pretty hard last week, and I feel bad now.  He is probably a decent dude, I just saw the uncertainty he introduces to the market, and being bearish, I overly-criticized him to fit my narrative.

That being said he does look soft as pudding, and he is a new character on the scene.

Our authoritarian leader is adding to the uncertainty by meddling with huge economic levers.  I had to dust off the old macro-economics book and chart out a few tariffs as a refresher.  Overall I think it is a bad idea.  We do not like central planning in America.  It seems to work for China.  They will literally force an entire village of humans to move into apartments in some other city.  And it works.

Like some good central planning would be to force everyone in Flint to move to Detroit.  Detroit has everything they need and it is a waste of time, people living out in Flint.  There is no good reason for humans to live in Flint.

But we do not like central planning in America.  Libertarians really don’t like central planning.  I thought republicans didn’t either, but who knows anymore how those bible freaks like to get off.

With algos whispering in my ears, and global economic saber rattling, I am taking the upcoming week real slow, and while I suspect we are in the middle of a correction, I am cautiously optimistic about next week.

TBD

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