A lapse in consistency last week. I failed to update the bias model and produce an Exodus Strategy Session. It was the first Sunday in 160 weeks that was missed. But it is important to nip this error in the bud and not become lazy with my analysis. Consistency was key to the success experienced this year, and I expect it to be how I continue to develop as a trader in 2018. The model flagged bearish last Sunday, 12/24.
I could have been in a solid position to extract several NASDAQ points off the exchange. I cannot stand missed opportunity, when I had an edge against the competition.
Tech took a hit last week. There is a significant nuance in place right now in the tech sector. Apple recently printed a failed auction. Despite being wholly distracted by the holidays, I made note of this event on my Twitter account:
whoa….
Is apple printing a failed auction?
On the daily/swing time frame?
Looks like it so far.#CAUTION $AAPL bulls
— RAUL (@IndexModel) December 26, 2017
Here is the failed auction I am referring to. This is a bearish occurrence. The signal is in place until Apple goes up and takes out prior highs:
Primary expectation is for Apple to trade down to about $165 then find support at this prior area of resistance. This is likely to continue to pressure the entire tech sector, and therefore the NASDAQ.
You think these failed auctions are just technical analysis guff that does not matter? You think that pal? Do you? Look at what Tesla investors have been dealing with since the September failed auction we noted.
I float around my house all day in a heavy robe, burning thickets of sage, laughing as these brilliant internet people come up with 10,000 reasons why Tesla stock is not going up.
Imagine if more people could observe assets through the lens of an auction instead of their own biases…what a world that might be.
Moving on.
The best performing sector last week was Utilities which hints at risk aversion ticking higher.
The model flagged neutral heading into the upcoming week, heading into the first trading week of 2018. A four business day week. We are taking Monday off to observe New Year’s day. However, come Tuesday, droves of new year new you people will be back to work, all extra on their latest money making scheme. Which is fine. Hopefully it works out well for them and they find satisfaction in 2018. I am only noting that the first week of the year often presents more opportunities to trade.
The model does not give us an edge, therefore the plan is to scalp in either direction. No runner positions will be held in anticipation of the higher time frame stepping in and pushing.
These little nuances, and a few others are presented in the 163rd Strategy Session, which is now live inside Exodus. Be sure to check it out.
In summary, the failed auction in Apple and last week’s sector rotations are slight reasons to be bearish heading into the first week of 2018. But the model offers no directional guidance. Therefore we will focus on trading our price levels and taking profits when they become available. Aka business as usual at the House of Raul.
Let’s kick their robot asses boys.
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What do you mean by failed auction?