There is much to discuss
First Moore’s law. Son of a nut cracker. When you think about what it actually means, yikes.
Listen, Moore’s law, which is a law mind you, describes quite prophetically how we ought to expect computational power to improve over time. At a certain point, and we have been working through the complications of semiconductors since at least the early 70s, at a certain point the chart goes parabolic. You eventually see your charts go banana dick up. The proverbial hockey stick growth trajectory that every ambitious start up hopes to achieve. Grind.grind.grind out growth, gently down the stream. Then, as if some sixth force of nature, everything goes apeshit to the upside. Merrily.
You guys like to laugh and dismiss me when I talk about robots. When I talk about how it soon will matter how you treated robots, because robots will be the ones deciding who lives. Does the self-driving car crash into the pedestrian to save a family of four in the cabin from ‘enjoying’ a long plunge down into a ravine, or does it think more kindly about the energy efficient walker and hurl the car off a cliff?
It might come down to your uber rating.
I can’t call it. But it seems like we are on the right side of history here. When I say we I mean the 15-20 people who regularly consume this obtuse blog diary.
And I believe it makes sense to frame this action happening in bitcoin within the confines of Moore’s law. There are other factors are work. When bitcoin futures went live last Sunday on the CBOT we were all pretty stoked. We were like, “now there is a liquid market for the boy lovers on wall street to participate in the bitcoin mania, and they will, in all their gayness, go forth into their safe space in Chicago an acquire bitcoin exposure.”
But they bitched. About the spread. About the volatility. About the settlement terms. Lots of crying and poo poo-face commentary. Mostly on Twitter, where wall street bros hang out and tell anyone who will listen how screwed we are, using their fancy words.
They sound so smart.
Which is cool.
It is cool. To sound smart.
Like I sound dumb, or at least mad. So my writings never achieve notoriety.
But we are not caring so much about how I sound. We are focused on being realistic and humble. If you really think anyone can predict, consistently, the future outcome of an asset price or market, then I have a brochure to share with you about the holy land, about resurrection, about fanatical nonsense.
Of course the bitcoin mania is driving the Altuchers to the surface. You should greet the crazies with indifference and curiosity, this may be your first real life encounter of them.
Most of yous were not around for the dot.com mania. I wasn’t. And we are better off because these old dudes were ravaged when the tech bubble popped, and they still bear the psychological scars which can prevent them from participating in the historical transition to our new decentralized monetary system.
I think it comes down to a lack of social skills. The popular argument against bitcoin is that you cannot use crypto coins for common exchange, for every day items like paper towel or a plumber. But you can. You just have to explain to the other person why it is kind of awesome to do deals using an anonymous electronic money. It is not a hard sell, especially with the recent media coverage. It is like you are their liaison to the future.
What your bitcoin futures trader does not realize is that a 300 dollar spread between the bid and offer pales in comparison to the premium you would pay if you went down to 8 Mile and bought your bitcoins at the ATM outside the party store. That spread is way waaaay worse.
But most people do not pay attention to these factors. They just sit behind their stupid desk, sending bitter tweets and not participating in the manic wealth accumulation occurring as you read this.
We have consensus agreed, you the reader and me, that the roaring ’20s are real—that we are entering a period of economic prosperity the likes of which almost every living human has never seen. We have consensus agreed that history tends to rhyme. So let this be your informal invitation to the Gatsby-esque party I intend to host 4 years from now when my Tesla shares are at 1000 and my bitcoins are at 100,000.
A Gatsby style evening with allllll the fixings. Yellow cars.
Moving on to more pressing matters. To forecasting what the next five days may be like. Using the most objective means possible. It feels damn good to prepare our weekly research from the Mothership. For the last three four weeks the report has been created via a satellite uplink to Mothership, operating from curious places around the United States.
The goods news is we have been bullish. Imagine not being bullish these last three weeks. Imagine how dumb that would be. It is good to forecast using a quantitative model. We can assuage all credit and guilt upon the simple minded robots.
Good job robots, you have nailed December so far…
But the most important question is what should we expect in the next five trading days? Right!? Because that is called being actionable.
We are still bullish here. After calibrating the Indexmodel and updating all operational logs, the algorithm that drives our forecasting model is bullish. We are not expecting anything crazy, just a continued drift, perhaps with a slight upward tilt.
You can read all about why we are bullish into the upcoming week, and MOAR, inside the 161st edition of Strategy Session, which is now live inside of Exodus.
Go check it out. Oh and hey, before I forget, happy non-denominational holiday season everyone! I hope you are finding ways to make space to appreciate yourselves in these hectic final days of the year. The fact that you read all this content I produce is so humbling. I do not want to waste your time, so I hope that something about this blog adds value to your work flow.
Here’s my favorite holiday song right now. I have no idea what the hell they are saying, but it kicks….
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Happy holidays, G.
TSLA = $1,000 … that won’t be good for Maven’s short position he was blathering on about when TSLA dipped below $300 for a nano-second. I must thank Maven for nailing that swing low with his latest 2 hollow TSLA hit-pieces.
yo dat NEO though
What a thoughtful and pleasant read. Thanks for putting it out there – and keep rocking it
Yeah, well, those old tech bubble dudes wish you all the best with Tesla shares at 1000 and bitcoins at $100,000 because history does not rhyme and each generation does not make the same mistakes.
Dude, I want to go to your Gatsby party ! I mentioned trading bitcoins to people the other day and two groups came out, 1) great idea but I think it’s risky, and group 2) you are a parasite and bitcoins are worth zero. HAHaha, wow.