After watching Yellen testify to congress last week, my listening comprehension skills led me to believe the March Fed meeting will be live, meaning I expect a rate hike. However, investors down at the CME are only pricing a 17.7% chance of a lift when The Fed convenes March 15th:
What gives? While equities showed little reaction to her testimony, bonds certainly behaved, albeit briefly, like a hike was coming.
The stock market is ripping to the upside in a grotesque and unobstructed manner, Detroit is actually transitioning into a functioning city (single tear), and the housing market is competitive as I’ve ever witnessed. For fucked sake, DAVID HALL, the most diabolical mortgage peddler of the housing crisis is back on the radio.
There is an unreasonably low expectation of a March rate hike. My opinion.
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I absolutely think they’ll raise next month.
if bond money is rotating into stocks then why would the quarter point matter?
surprises matter, something w a 17% probability of happening, happening, is somewhat surprising, statistically speaking.