For those of you just tuning in, I’ve been putting on a seminar in auction theory trading, live, full time for over two years. However, the most recent lesson being presented to you pertains to how a market develops value and the best way to engage it.
It all started when we were in discovery, which is one of the two modes a market is always in. An excerpt from the Exodus Strategy Session, for reference:
Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.
Every week we closely monitor the PHLX Semiconductor index, and the somewhat obscure NASDAQ Transportation index to hammer home these two concepts and hopefully provide useful context on the NASDAQ futures, which are my primary instrument of trade.
What I am doing live, and will continue doing live as long as I have an internet playground, is demonstrating NASDAQ futures trading to you.
Our most recent discovery began December 13th. Back then the profile looked freaky—just the kind I like—because they provide the most opportunity.
This was the picture the morning of December 14th:
It began to mature:
And again:
and again:
and again:
again:
again:
UNTIL NOW, the present profile:
You may notice the market is selling off right now. This may trouble you if you’re too long and for whatever reason not off enjoying Christmas and family.
However, we are coming into the low-end of value. This is nothing for you to concern yourself with yet. It is a mere gyration inside and across value. A round trip, if you will.
It is worth noting that iBankCoin laboratories issued a Krampus alert, which was a way of gussying up a bearish signal generated by the Index Model so you guys would pay attention.
An excerpt from Monday afternoon explains how I was building a short position, indeud:
…the plan is to short sell from above value, ride the ripples back down to value and press for a break down and out of value carefully.
Moving on. Some of you, to put it bluntly, are ignorant about the core functions of Exodus. Case in point:
Exodus is not designed so you can shadow The Fly. It is designed to empower you to become a more objective investor and trader. I’ve studied The Fly for over 7 years (kinda creepy, I know) and his core strengths are portfolio building and geopolitical foresight. It’s his penchant for micro fundamental analysis that makes the GARP portfolio the best way to outsource your stock picking research to a Space Alien Magician driving around in a fucking time machine.
THE RESULT? Nealy +20% year-to-date gains, courtesy of Exodus:
If you haven’t noticed, there is a free trial going on right now. That means, instead of sulking around during the holidays, elbow deep in a bottle of scotch, you can sip three fingers of scotch while perusing the most sophisticated market intelligence platform ever created, free of charge. Go sign up now and get inside.
Let me tell you why this free trial is the most important one of the year. The Exodus Strategy session signaled the short last week, and I need to decide whether to carry my short position into the weekend, through Christmas, and into the Santa Rally. Fuckin’ CRAZY right!? So I am going do something a little different. Friday afternoon, as late in the session as possible, but still early enough where I can take action, I am going to issue a partial Exodus Strategy Session—updating the model scores and determining if short conditions still exist. And if you’re inside for a free trial, you will be able to read that privileged information.
In short, do it.
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I think your work is great Raul. Nice call on Monday.
Raul, in terms of the profile, can you explain what the different sections on the chart profile mean, and it what you mean by it was maturing? And as a follow up to that, what in the profile told you that there was a big shift, i.e., that the last profile chart gave you a warning? Thanks for all of your help in advance, and in general for the guidance and work throughout the year. Hope you and yours have a great holiday!
The first pic, when the profile was new, it provided tons of opportunity. When it became more mature it became more of a chop environment. Less predictable, less opportunistic. Can you elaborate on what your mean by “different sections of the profile meaning’? It might be more easy to elaborate over a phone call. Let me know