Nasdaq futures are a touch lower as we round the bend into cash open. The session featured normal range and volume while trading inside of yesterday’s range. This suggests we are in balance and nothing overnight changed that. The overnight profile features a weak low and the predominant feature of the session was a 16 point rotation lower around 5:30am, otherwise the session yields little clues on the day.
At 8:30am a buffet of economic numbers was delivered—most coming in-line or slightly better than expectations. At 10:30am we have crude oil inventories and at 2pm it appears a Greek Summit meeting is taking place over in the Eurozone.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down but saw little initiative selling after going range extension down. Instead we grinded back up into the balance formed by Monday’s neutral day. Starting the week with a big gap up, after starting the prior week with a big gap down, may make participants hesitant to chase price higher. However, the longer we can hold balance up here, building acceptance of these prices, the more likely it becomes that we test contract high and explore for buy stops.
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4541.25. From there I will look for them to take out overnight high 4545.75 setting up a move to target 4557 then 4565.75. Stretch targets are 4579.50 and 4596.
Hypo 2 buyers struggle while closing the overnight gap and we push down to take out overnight low 4526. Look for price to continue lower and look for buyers around 4511.75 then continued balanced trade.
Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4511.75 to target the 4500 century mark. If they can push trade below 4498.50 look for liquidation to take hold, and a fast move down to 4465.25 with a potential gap fill target down at 4454.
Levels:
1. we go up!
2. we stay flat!
3. we go down!
I know, they were really clear hypos today. I was pretty excited about it.