I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,011 Blog Posts

Neutral Footprint

Nasdaq futures are up a touch premarket in a quiet session of trade.  Durable Goods fell off a bit according to this morning’s release where numbers came in a bit softer than expected.  The initial reaction is a bit of sell flow.  We have consumer confidence information coming out shortly after the open at 10:00am.

After gapping higher to start the week, we printed a tight open auction, explored higher out of the tight initial balance and then went neutral on the session.  Price stopped just one tick shy of a full gap fill before turning higher and rejecting out of Friday’s range.  The afternoon snap back was not strong enough to press prices back to the VPOC in the upper distribution.  Instead we saw a VPOC shift lower to end the session.

Taking a zoomed out look at the intermediate term time frame we can see just how ruthless the upside progress has been.  Prices have been gapping and legging higher since taking out prior swing highs.  The resulting volume composite resembles a series of peaks and valleys as the market explores higher to discover a fair value.  I have noted the key low volume nodes on the following chart as well:


I have noted the key price levels I will be observing in this morning’s trade below:

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  1. Raul3

    Primary Hypothesis – market tests higher off the open, probing the upper HVN at 4075. Look for signs of responsive selling at 4077 which rotates us down through the LVN at 4070 and through the VPOC to close the overnight gap to 4064. If responsive buying holds above 4061.50 then expectation is a new high. Otherwise sellers will target NVPOC at 4053.25 and perhaps 4050.

    Hypo 2 – push lower off the open, testing the overnight inventory, and trading down to VPOC at 4066.50 before muddling down to close overnight gap to 4064 where we find responsive buying back up to yesterday’s high 4078.50.

    Hypo 3 – drive lower, take out overnight gap to 4064 and press down to naked VPOC at 4053.25, perhaps after the 10am Consumer Confidence read, and find responsive buying at 4049-4047 which eventually gives way to another rotation lower to 4037.50

    Hypo 4 – drive higher early then grind into lunch, consolidate up at new highs before another wave of buy flow attempts higher

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  2. boomTime

    pretty much your primary, right? really enjoyed your market profile webinars, thx!

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  3. Raul3

    close to hypo 1- expected to test that upper HVN by now though, mainly I have been keying off of the 4070 pivot

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