Sell flow worked though the markets last night after the buyers pressed a bit higher during the globex session. The S&P continues to lag the NASDAQ and one must start to consider which one of these indices is telling the story here.
The /ES_F (S&P electronic future contract) is currently trading 5 points below yesterday’s close. The gap trade will be in effect today, as buyers work to fill this overnight void. I have envisioned more back-and-fill action for the S&P as it continues working through intermediate term balance. Should we instead see an aggressive drive away from intermediate term balance, it would suggests a longer timeframe trader is acting upon the market. The first chart is a scenario I envision, and the second highlights the intermediate term balance and key levels within it:
Turning our attention to the NASDAQ via the /NQ_F contract, we see prices made new swing high yesterday. It will be interesting to see if these prices sustain. Overnight the market found buyers at 3610, the intermediate term value area high, and quickly rotated higher. I will be keen on this level today as a break likely brings a retest of the VPOC at 3602. Here is the intermediate term balance in /NQ:
Finally our NASDAQ daily market profile is presented below. You can see it printed a high VPOC suggesting value is migrating higher and perhaps beginning the process of discovery higher, in hunt of new value. We are set to open inside range, inside value today. Thus we are presented with a lower risk/reward environment intraday. Keep in mind a strong drive (either direction) at the open could change this sentiment rather quickly. Otherwise, my expectation is for price to work through a bit of back-and-fill along with the S&P. I have presented a scenario below:
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