Lunchtime Throwback

I put out a 12:30pm post summarizing and hypothesizing what the market was most likely to do.  Even though it was fly over the handlebars and smash your face wrong, it was incredibly useful.

When it did not happen, but instead we saw the market rejecting the Monday/Tuesday value, there was a subtle shift in the market place.  These are important.  The sooner they are recognized the better you can manage risk and adjust your intraday stance.

Hindsight being 20-20, I can clearly differentiate the moment when the shift occurred and split the profile for a better look, it happened between 12:30 to 1:30pm.  The market fell out of value, failed to re-enter leaving a low volume node at 1692.25, and made a sharp move lower.  A rejection! Take a look:

That changes expectation and as you can see above, we rotated back down through the value rapidly, found buyers just above the lows, then mustered a small bounce and eventually closed near the LOD.

We nearly printed a normal day—popularly seen near inflection points.  This is only a subtle piece of context to observe, and by no means a definitive swing low call.  We will revisit this profile in the morning.