I Got My Data (Swagga) Back And Sellers Are Winning

I was thrilled to recapture the necessary data yesterday evening to get a proper readout from the selloff.  The first data point the jumps off the screen is the confluence of interesting data points surrounding the 1500 century mark.  It is likely investors and traders keep this level in their mind regardless of their method of observing the market, but given the context of market profile we can verify significant activity occurring at this price.

It just so happens the value area low from the selloff (although a trend day in many ways lacks a value area) aligns with the VAL and VPOC from 02/21.  The market worked its way back up to the level yesterday, but did not make it all the way for a proper test.

Yesterday featured reactive at the open when the market gapped higher overnight.  The sellers were quick to react to the gap, and pressed their orders in, effectively filling the gap and even taking out the lows from 02/25.  Then we say an aggressive reaction from the buyers which left behind a buying tail.  Should that tail be violated it would suggest buyers have lost their conviction.

The profile yesterday also tells us the bulls struggled to maintain control after the initial reaction.  The progress made on the bounce was ample, but they didn’t rage higher.  There’s certainly overhead supply to consider now.

Today I’m looking for selling early on again, I’ll be monitoring for buyers to step back in and balance price out around 1486 and then attempt a test of the 1500 level.  Should they push through, they will have to work over a value mountain spanning from 1502-1504 which could slow price.  After that, things get slippery meaning we could either see a swift rejection lower or a pump right through.

Note this scenario is only a hypothesis.  Should the day play out differently, that will provide me contextual clues to trade my stocks around.