Seems like $SNAP took on more of a $FB style comparison. Interesting, no?
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
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Oh no.
We’re combining $SNAP talk & “Sweep the Leg” analogies?
This is going to get ugly…
It would be hilarious if $17 was the absolute bottom tick
well don’t I look dumb
I just like it when charts are soooo perfect that they breed new suckers for the future
I put it up just because of the CNBC headlines at the close
How are lockups still news? I’m sure any half decent quant fund could estimate within a couple % how many shares are going to be dumped. Then it just becomes gamesmanship, like ETF re-balancing. Try and find out who is going to get caught offside and try to push them over the edge.
I am going to enter aug weekly calls for the lockup. EVERYONE thinks this is the biggest piece of shit and are banking on a massive lockup sell off. I bet we get a massive 20% short squeeze day after lockup
My trade is based on it staying the same or dropping lower. If it moves up I’m out. Planning to get in a few days before lockup
difference is FB is great company / cash cow and snap is dog
You must not have been there for the IPO. They said the same about Facebook.
What say you OA? One more time chance some calls here? Or just forget about it?
Despite my negativity below, there will likely be a long opportunity sometime soon. Not sure how far this dumps out, but it feels like near-term capitulation is around the corner…I don’t think it’ll last long and I doubt you get more than back to last night’s close…but could be good for a buck or two before it continues to melt.
Hi OA,
RAD.
Here is the breakdown of it’s existing value. Do you agree?
Cash from WAG deal 5,140,000,000
Valuation of remaining stores (2,435 stores remaining * price/store in WAG deal of 2351326) = 5,725,480,320
Valuation of PBM (EnvisionRX purchase price by RAD) 2,000,000,000
Early Termination Fee received from WAG deal 325,000,000
Less Debt of 8,000,000,000 (LT Debt + Current Accts Payable)
Remaining Valuation : $5,190,480,319 (roughly $4.75/shr)
means nothing…
Any SNAP buyers here?
$16 flat
Lol
$P Out calls
@stella, just to answer your question-
“Thank you. Wondering seasoned traders like you own any of ETF/Fund for retirement account? or 100% rely on trade?”
I keep my 401(k) totally separate from trading activities, and that’s in boring etfs/funds (well, aggressive growth funds at this stage of the market, but comparatively boring to my trading activities). I’d always want to position myself to do best in any market conditions, so when upside becomes limited for the intermediate long term I’ll flip those to very boring stuff. But I don’t ever think I’ll be the type to just have my 401(k) in $SPY.
Then I have my various trading accounts, all of which are also intended to be spent in retirement, but I consider ‘separate’ from my retirement account. I don’t hold any ETFs in those. I own stocks for capital appreciation, and then I hedge with just cash or yield proxies, such as I have had a decent sized position in Wells Fargo preferred shares for about 5 years in this account, which pay a good yield but don’t fluctuate much. I’m starting to think about poking around on energy preferred shares here (though I’m not even sure if they exist). I have also in the past had a good sized position in $DLTNX as a hedge, but that’s also distinct from a stock ETF of course, and I’m going to sell the last of it soon.
(P.S. please don’t take this as investment advice, I’m far from a seasoned trader. Just my approach.)
Thank you very much. Really helpful to hear from real trader about boring realistic part of the game. Yes, I like to learn trading also secure some for good saving, since I have long way/life to go. I start diversify and will adjust balance between trading to etf saving as my trading goes or income goes. Keep learning!!
That’s the answer. The best advice I can give is to try it out on your own for 6-8 months, then join After Hours. When you see how confusing everything is out in the world, then attend sessions Jeff, it becomes so clear. And gets easier; but it takes a long time. Good luck!
Glad I got out of SNAP and into NVDA in my trading account last week. Jesus…
If this sees $20 before it sees $10, consider me in shock…while there is similarity between the charts, the underlying fundamentals were totally different. At the time, you could argue poeple thought FB business was similar to SNAP today…but FB had a much stronger underlying platform and very quickly proved that to the market…don’t know what the chart looks like after yours ends, but I would guess it broke back up and did so very quickly – reflecting the “oops we were wrong” view by the market.
SNAP is a POS as a business and isn’t anywhere on the verge of monetizing things…maybe at all, let alone properly.
The only way you are wrong shorting SNAP is if somebody actually buys them…which is possible, since all logical buyers are loaded with cash and poor in valuation training. Still, I’d rather own puts and ride it to the ground.
All of those beliefs are reflected in the last tick, just like they were in $FB at this stage in the process. I think that’s the main point here. Not whether SNAP is a good buy, but that people feel the same about SNAP today as they did about FB then, and the charts looks the same because of it.
I don’t know if you were around at the time, but FB was absolutely a POS that wasn’t anywhere on the verge of monetizing as well. I was a weaker man at the time, and didn’t buy accordingly.
FB took off once they proved they could monetize. SNAP will have to do the same.
Agree. Not everything should just be chart based. FB had limited competition back in their development days. Snap is facing one of the toughest competitors anyone can imagine
I remember when FB went public and I thought it was comical that it was so unloved. There was no question you could monetize FB…this is a different story.
I agree that sentiment is similar and that’s why it’s reflecting – I’m suggesting this story ends differently.
I’d also suggest that FB was the last great IPO before the waters became over-polluted. The garbage coming to market now is comical (APRN anybody?) and I can’t believe people actually line up to buy this crap. This is dot com 2.0 and sure, there will be a few survivors, but most will perish.
I remember when FB was in the $17’s. I was on the fence about the IPO, almost bought shares around $20, and staring at upper 17’s/18ish. Ol’ Karl Denninger declared this thing a 0, and like the perma bear i was back in that time i bought $10k worth of puts instead of $10k worth of leaps. That was a missed 6 figure opportunity.
Old blue blazer had never made a correct call. Worst stock picker there is
lmao
Thoughts on XRT and XLF here? Not for positions, but to get an idea of where we’re at in regards to sector rotation.
XRT looks good on paper but the selling is still pretty fast. XLF is in no man’s land – too high to buy, but looking like it could breakout.
How wrong am I, on a scale of 1 to sweep the leg?
$AMD Long Aug calls
At resistance?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzaNRDIa6GY
In this case, I’m monitoring option flow.
Where’s that video of the kid in the dance studio bustin moves to the Wu Tang beat before he is so rudely interrupted by someone asking him to leave?
KBH at multi year resistance. If it slips past the $25 area theres a nice thin pocket there from the 2007-8 crash.
Picked up some IMAX at $21.3 and added today at $22.60. Unique property. What’s the bearish case in case I’m missing it?
Living in the shithole of Chicago, I may just infiltrate this group. Then kick the shit out of these faggots Bruce lee style
Ha that post was meant for a zero point post. I love the OA group
Closed out my $XHR for 5 bagger. Already re-deployed earlier in the week into $masi puts, $ozrk calls, and $pacw calls
TVIX time!
anyone trying a short this morning?
FB is a monster. It’s just a savage animal.
Buying the dips wins again, and again and again etc…..