It’s fair to say that in this leg of our beloved bull market, not many took advantage of prices offered in late 2015 – early 2016. Even when the headlines of January 2016 were “sell everything” and “worst start for markets in history” people wanted very little to do with fire sale prices.
Lol.
Even while the market trended mostly uninterrupted in 2016, the attitude was “fuck it, it’s rigged anyway.” Supposing that’s true, it’s a compelling argument to not participate in a market that only goes higher because you have a good conscience.
Lol.
So now that the angle of this trend is steepening, it represents a shift. In the rear view, it’s safe to say that late 2015 and early 2016 was an accumulation phase. That phase leads into public participation phase. That phase takes awhile to take those that chose market abstinence and condition them towards impregnating every single stock that offered a downtick…sorta like I’ve been doing over here for years now.
With the stories of $AMZN, Bitcoins, $TSLA, $FANG’s…etc there are more reasons for folks to step out into the unknown and donate their money to market. This phase takes time, and it’s a very strong current that can lack rational movements, decisions and defy odds. It’s important to remember that while all this action is so very tempting, the exit is always smallest at the slightest sign of change.
Moving forward, I still like the idea of using market sentiment metrics to determine where things overheat. It’s quite likely that this might be hard to gauge, since there will be things we haven’t seen a whole lot in decades.
Enjoy the ease and simplicity, but try to think above the crowd level. Environments like late 2015-early 2016 don’t give me anxiety, because nobody wants to buy. However, these environments give me lots of anxiety. I hate it when more and more people want a piece of the action.
Good day.
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turn head, buy COF here
COF COF
What do you make of action in the Trump names?
CLF, X, FCX, etc have all been opening gap up, and then get sold off on low volume. Smells like that dreaded term that I’m not allowed to say anymore.
Still bullish on this as a theme down here. The faded strength is early dip buyers taking breakeven after being underwater.
Look like good timing for another crack at CLF today?
love WIX short term
Hi OA..not that I’m in it but looking for thoughts re XLU i.e ‘safe’ stuff moving up along with spec names and tech and the mkt in general…basically looking for an academic ‘why?’ to answer someone’s question…thanks
Why wouldn’t it?
lol fair point – will copy paste that
Look at any other phase like this historically. Everything goes up…just some go up at a faster/slower pace.
Wish I had bought SNAP after earnings. Looking very strong even with that ad discount announcement yesterday.
Same. I waited til last Friday and hated buying up.
Just got out of my weeklies for almost a triple. I would have liked to keep holding, but tomorrow I’m away from my desk the rest of the session and tomorrow can be one of those all-time slow days so I don’t want to mess with it. If it pulls back one more time to re-test, then I’ll load into something a bit longer than a weekly.
Nice entry. Looks like $20 is always a good time to get in.
Failed to get some yesterday – now FOMO on one that inflicted so much pain already.
In true #YOLO spirit, held my 20/21 weeklies into tomorrow for a squeeze. Fuck it, dude. Let’s go bowling.
To $HOS or not to $HOS? That is the question…
Found a couple of interesting setups for summer holds:
$BVN is my favorite
$INFN
$TGT
And I continue to watch $RUBI, $TRIP, $TOUR, and $ITUB.
the glorious house of gains….which comes with more blog post comments. stay frosty.
out of the Q’s for a four bagger one of the best wks i’ve had its going to be a good holiday schools out and its time to sleep in
Sold your bitcoin didn’t you?
Like forever ago. Glad you thought of me.
well, it’s been pulling back pretty hard last few days.
All I hear about the past 3 weeks is all about crypto currencies. the BTC chart look parabolic. its gotta come back in .. right?
We do have a 30 year reunion coming up this October if the mood is correct and the cheerleaders are a cheering. Mr Market may have something to say at Homecoming Night.
It seems that in October, the 13th falls on a Friday.
speaking of 30 years ago when collar up Polo shirts were rage for Muffy and Biff
(ok, maybe 35 but for this narrative , 30)
RL is my turd that will not float. Gapped up today with the PVH lift- does anyone buy Tommy or Calvin and still closed red.
Like momentum names in this environment. I just try to always know where the exit door is located.
I remember markets like this. The most memorable was the late 90s where I ran up an incredible amount of dough and then learned about how keeping is harder than getting.
Thank-you Jeff, Mark, Tim, Lawrence and Satya for sending my kids to private school next year.
Will GOOGL and AMZN split this year or do they follow the BRK model?
Congratulation ! Great dad. means, did you take profit all? or still holding?
Thanks.
LMAO…how long have you been waiting for him to comment to ask him what you should do with your money?
OA, you misunderstand me. I am not asking what should I do, I know my way. I am just asked him because curious,
and he is good at the timing to sell/take profit. Myself still holding as long term hold because I am not good at in/out timing.
My fault. Apologies.
So if he replied “I sold all my holdings today anticipating the crowd to be raped and pillaged in these stocks for the foreseeable future” how sound would you sleep tonight as a long term shareholder?
Almost everybody asks somebody else what to do with their money. I don’t see what the big deal is. The kind of knowledge & skill OA has is as rare as hen’s teeth.
I would have sold because of such comments from someone I respect like you till several years ago.
I burned so much and lost my hair lots.
Now I learned (still learning) more and getting better entries, and only trade/invest what I can hold long term if I want/need to. So, my answer is
I can sleep well even I hear such comments. I guess it is just human nature that curious about what others(not all people but who I care about) do. That’s all.
Right, all good.
I just think Hartmann’s appearances dropped as the “what do you think of Facebook” comments started to rise.
The market had it’s lull in March and April, so I did not go away in May.
The S&P P/E ratio right now is Ok, not overpriced like 1999 so I’m all in. I’ve timed the market a couple of times and ended up a little ahead or breaking even so it’s really not worth the effort due to taxes, commissions etc. However, re-balancing into mega cap worked well.
Buying the dips is rather simplistic and sneered at by some but it has been working for a long time now. Especially take advantage in any weakness in FB. Right now Zucker is a gold mine.
Thank you. Sorry being curious, maybe because I am a girl?! Always appreciate your insight.
If you compare the chart of bitcoin in 2017 to the chart of China A shares in 2015 they look the same. Probably the same people (money from China) buying. 2015 A shares collapse took the world with it along with oil/copper, etc.
Copper and China A shares trading with almost 1 to 1 correlation for the past year.
Also stocks V dipped last week, but bond yields didn’t recover by nearly as much as stocks.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m still long everything. Just starting to get real worried.
I’ll be looking to cut my own book of LEAP options on index ETF’s first over the next two weeks, then looking at where to set stops on everything. Part of me thinks we run for another month, blow-off top. But why is all of this money running out of china buying bonds and bitcoin?
I bought 2 weeks of $USO this a.m.
and just for laughs, I ran a $VXX 2 hour yolo just now to try and catch some insurance taking into the weekend.
Great post.
What do you think of shorting gold miners here?
Love the idea. I’d rather lose money betting on lower.
Which ones?
It looks like its setting up for a move to lows from last year…similar chart to the JO chart from around November 2014
GDXJ
Then again, it really comes down to how it moves here off the trend line from those late 2016 lows. Seems like a pretty pivotal point for gold miners.
when i was chart surfing, i actually thought a lot of them were in decent spots for longs. $GG comes to mind. I’d obviously never get long a gold miner, but i think selectively it’s not the best spot for shorts.
I think the best play on gold miners might just be a straddle. I suspect there’s a large move coming and I’m on the fence about the direction.
Makes sense to me. Hard to guess direction from here.
bought some June BITA and added to ATW sept.
Holy heaven… nice add on ATW!!
Amen to that!
Lots of red on 50% average volume? Great day to be adding.
XPER ?
Thanks for the ATW recommendation.
^5
OA – Any thoughts on the CL_F/XLE divergence here? It looks like the market is discounting the fears with supply from US drillers but CL_F is acting healthy. If $52 breaks, XLE is going to snap quickly to the upside.
Bought $ACIA and $CBI (half position in July calls- I’m planning to add as I can’t imagine I caught the bottom to the penny) this afternoon.
Trying to find potential movers as we get into the doldrums. Trying to build a combo of longer term plays in sturdy names and only buying shorter term setups in names with a chance to scoot.
I continue to be amazed by the number of good set ups out there.
Liking the move in ACIA this morning – hope you filled the second half early.