FML.
Listen, the reason I posted that video yesterday is to discuss movement this week that would draw in both sides of the trade.
I said last Thursday night that the stock needed to close last week quietly to keep both longs and shorts engaged into the weekend. Check.
I said the stock “would rip to $24, 24.50, 25 range on Monday early, then fade sharply into mid week.” CHECK.
Stop and think why that detail was/is at all important and therein lies the answers to all your questions. It was so you late longs would shit yourself out of this trade for me.
The only thing I missed on this idea at all was how far it would pull back into weakness mid week. It’s trading fifty cents away from that price I called out. I’m sure in some troll-fuck way that makes this a bad call/trade/idea/whatever.
Chart looks as it should. Quiet today was the next best case scenario.
Moving forward, I will be charging babysitting rates.
The only thing that concerns me at all is the Angel of Death jinx that hit me on this last week. I won’t elaborate on this, but I am giving offerings to the Stock Gods for their grace on this one.
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LOL. ” shit yourself out of this trade for me”
Thks OA for clarifying sometimes we miss the little things being said
I usually get screwed when I start trying to analyze intra-day action, but so far today is a thing of beauty. Shorts got a dream fill on the open if they took it.
Babysitting fees can pay for the crayons needed for people to draw trendlines that aren’t so black and white.
Angel of Death? That sounds bad. I’m closing my position.
I asked you how much and you never replied. Stock Gods are none too pleased.
I’m sorry Shaboi, that wasn’t directed at you.
Superstitious to a fault. This literally scared the shit out of me. Had to get a new chair.
Lol didn’t you trash one of your chairs out one time a couple years ago? We’ve been on the same side of some epic trades, lest you forget. PCLN, NFLX, X, just to name a few from a couple years back. I was mostly following your lead on those like I am on this one. I hope this allays your fears somewhat. We only got on opposite sides in 2015 and early 2016 for like 6 months when all I was doing was shorting SPX.
Before I even knew you existed I as trading TWTR long into that epic post ipo melt up. Blind squirrel, broken clock, etc. 🙂
Tell us more. This is getting good.
I don’t have anything else to say.
Wonderful. I think you fit the “late buyer” discussed.
That was blatant sarcasm.
I aim for humility here, and to only post trades or insights that I think have some value, but my gut was for lower prices today (at this point I know that’s easy to say). I don’t do sentiment very well so I try to listen quietly most of the time on such matters. But here is what I saw that gave me pause on higher prices today:
1. Your son’s teacher asking him to TEXT YOU IN CLASS if he should buy. That’s not the swing low.
2. People seemed to buying yesterday without fear of losing money.
3. No trolls.
I think a lot of those symptoms are burned off with a gap lower. Watching pre-market gave me a headache. The number of times I “refresh my screen while stopped at red lights pre-market” is usually an indicator that fear is in place. And I probably set a personal record on that. Costanza-Yolos at $21.90
Lol @ the refresh.
If I had a dollar for each pre-market refresh, I’d be able to retire today
http://m.imgur.com/cf82JdS
If I had a nickel for ever time that was posted on Stocktwits, I’d push Snap to all time highs so we could all just be done with it.
Why am I craving Hershey Kisses?
People .. seriously let the trade evolve. Just because there’s a pull back here doesn’t mean the trade is busted. If this action in unnerving to you, then perhaps find another hobby or line of work. It’s no wonder OA doesn’t want to comment on price target, roll up levels etc. if everyone is harassing him during these trades. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll probably get smoked on my weeklies here, and it won’t be fun, but that’s how this game is played. If were too easy then everyone would sit at home in their boxer shorts trading.
// end rant
Yea my weeklies are pretty f’ed. But I am following OA till next month.
On the inside, reference “This is Fine” dog.
Whats your babysitting rate? $8.44/hr?
haha epic
haha. In OA we trust.
People thinking your madam Cleo or something 🙂
Is it just me or is SNAP forming an Inverted head and shoulders with measured move back to its highs? pardon me if this has already been pointed out.
I’m with you on that…a little melt up to the close could get real interesting for manana. Maybe that gap up in the morn that Jeff talked about just gets delayed by a day or 2…
That’s exactly what I see.
My “batman- illuminati confirmed– indicator” went off yesterday
Yes….YES….that was an epic post!
I’ll tell you what, I’m either going to be more rich or less rich on April 21st. Can’t fucking wait to find out.
All good OA, booked 517% on CMG today.
EPIC!
Yeah, while everyone circle jerks over SNAP, other stocks we’re in are killing it.
i remember her she went to prison for scaming use to be on those one 800 commericals at night
SHLD reload soon
Fully out of SHLD today. What a fucking week for that one. Booked 813%.
*disclosure: everything below this line is a joke and shouldn’t be taken seriously*
Soooo….. SNAP sweeping the leg?
I lol’d.
Nice trade on SHLD.
My weeklies are toast (guess that’s why you manage position size). Bought more Aprils on the dip this morning – belief in the whole trade means I won’t be pissed off in April if I bailed out instead of reloading.
I new this babysitting post was coming today after the gap down. Kinda surprised you bothered. Readers have to rule their own emotions eventually. You did spell it out very clearly. Remarkable really.
+1….if paying attention, he told us exactly what to do (roll weeklies on Monday’s pop)…the numerics are just minor details; pattern has been spot on…
Bought more April calls on TWTR
$OA….opinion on $WBS here for a trade
Love the broadening action in banks. Been loading up myself.
I’m actually short $WBS. It’s an epic profile below to $40, and this is the last drip of profile left defending these prices.
But I have meaningfully less confidence than when I initiated.
Still cant get on board with this as a pure “sentiment” trade. I dont think longs or shorts will make money on this one until that first earnings report is released. May swing a couple of bucks each way before then depending on how the broader market is doing, but thats about it. People learned their lesson on TWTR and wont be running this one to the moon without some fundamental news first (ie an earnings report with news on user growth, monetization efforts, etc.).
Oh my hell. Something a co-worker or neighbor would say.
A brilliant, well-reasoned neighbor or coworking, right? 🙂
So when I said “this is the purest form of sentiment and behavior”…you see no resemblance?
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2017/03/THATISTHEDUMBESTFUCKINGCOMMENTEVER.png
Brilliant file-naming convention.
All for fun.
Saying “I’m going to wait” in paragraph form is always my favorite answer.
Last I checked this hasn’t traded with the broader market at all.
This comment may have marked the start of the next move….classic
It certainly was. Aversion.
Hah, if this thing screams higher than the 20-25 range-bound trading I predict–then Im glad I could help! Maybe my problem is I have an issue investing in a company whose business is making people puke rainbows. 🙂
I make lemonade out of lemons. Nobody’s investing here, Champ.
Quit thinking long term on this. Tomorrow is promised to no one!
stocksnblondes,
The “sentiment trade” is an innate human behavior. It is in all markets, not just stocks. It happens every holiday season with a hot toy. Bitcoin. Etc. And, now $SNAP.
The first *documented* case was in 1637 with the tulip market (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania). Interesting stuff!
The more amazing thing this is that Jeff is *anticipating* this behavior before it happens.
Do i get my hold star yet? 🙂
Gold star rather
Shitting on the idea in front of a 25% move doesn’t get a star, IMO. The stock is still higher than where you talked it down. So let’s say you took the short side of that idea when you blasted it on 3/20 when it was under $20, you got nutmegged, no?
What for?
Classic OA post! Sage advice as always. Sentiment curve on hourly looks just ideal. Time to sit on clicking finger and get a sandwich.
The title of this post is pure awesomeness. So perfect for the situation!
And there it is: green. So glad I bought more yesterday and today.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/626n0y/snap_formation_this_week/
Lol – “No, he’s doing it the wsb way” What a shitshow.
WSB is such a guilty pleasure. Did anyone tell them they used a multiple gold medal Olympic swimmer as the basis for their chart?
From what I am reading on the boards and the twits .. I have feeling this will rip OAs price target to the upside to shreds. Too much bear dancing and panic. So he may be off a couple of days and a buck or two, but think how many more bears loaded up today and will load up into the close thinking they’re missing the short trade here. This action will only make it more painful once this baby breaks out.
I was just wishing I could have rolled up the weeklies. The intent was to use profits from the weeklies, its just a drag that options don’t trade pre-market, or that the pre-market follow through didn’t happen. Could have had nice exit on weeklies yesterday and then rolled up the proceeds.
sit in the tall grass and wait for now.
Don’t count those weeklies out just yet….
I can’t believe how accurate you were on this, down to the dollar (by 3pm EDT).
…I’m disabling my account balance next week.
BOOM BOOM BOOM
Hey would you look at that. Early double top…quiet creep up…higher lows…Every now and then I can read a chart. Don’t ask me about tomorrow.
Looking at this one stupid fucking chart and losing hair over it is crazy. I have a ton of names ripping I didn’t even see- $WBMD, $KBR, $RSO, $DDD, $CHK, hell even $TGT is moving – alas, I guess it looks like $ONCE gave back a bit.
I’m going back to the grid. Do what you’re going to do, $SNAP.
Cramer just blessed $SNAP on cnbc and Doug Kass bought $TWTR today. This can’t be good. lol
Cramer secretly follows OA
Cramer—->The engagement for $SNAP is insane. It will not be killed by $FB.. But can we wait until $17-$19?
he wants in.
excactly
I said the same at the open yesterday.
The smartest thing about this trade was using those comments about them wanting in at 17…then entering the trade once it traded into the 18’s. They have to chase now too.
haha. yeh, got this from his twitter feed.
Jeff, you are really superstitious?
In this sport, I avoid crowd thinking. Yet here I am, developing a crowd thought.
I am in that sense.
Hmm…when superstition takes hold for long enough time, it becomes tradition. I see it in my cultural background.
OA is the Master and I for one just a grasshopper in his realm.
I’ll burn some chicken bones if we get a 10% tomorrow .. lol
the “good” bears got the short at 22.90 yesterday.
this is a great spot to close today. we’re up from the day before, and chillen just under their entry point and can easily jump over it.
BOX looks like it’s in anxiety. Just looked at the chart since IPO and it stood out right away. thoughts anyone?
Sitting on the trendline and finding support off prior resistance…what’s not to like?
Let’s say launchpad instead of trendline. IE. BOX is sitting on the launchpad.
Who’s in GOOS? This guy.
Me too thanks to $OA …..Mini $SNAP wanna be IPO play
OA, do you think more pain for $NTNX?
Not much IMO.
How bout twlo?
Actually bought calls today. Haven’t done that in a long time.
That thing is going to rocket at some point.
OA, any opinion on bitcoin here? I was looking to curse it soon 😉
I rode the $400 to $1050. There’s another blogger on here that talks bitcoin often. He might.
Yeah, I’m looking for a re-entry. I was going to buy Ethereum like a month ago and just got busy and work and it rocketed. Never got an entry. FML. They are trying to pull a bitcoin circa 2013 with ethereum.
I don’t know how interested you are in the other crypto-currencies, but I’m thinking they just start running them all up to insane values, one after the other. As soon as Ethereum crashes and burns people will be looking for the next one. These may all go the way of tulips, but until then I’m very interested in them.
I don’t even know what’s #3 in terms of usage, but I’m keeping an eye out. If coinbase starts allowing people to buy other crypto currencies then I am definitely going to throw some cash at whatever they include in their platform. To me, this is how you get public participation in a crypto currency.
Bitcoin might be a buy after they decide if bitcoin is going to fork into another coin. Seems like bitcoin money has been flowing into other cryptos.
Monero might be a good trade here: https://postimg.org/image/6iq4u3t2x/
I just sold all my Litecoin: https://postimg.org/image/nu70cwo0n/
I just sold all my Ripple: https://postimg.org/image/625dvyg45/
Holding all my Ethereum, but I got that in the $6-8 range.
Thanks Dish. I’ve heard good things about Monero. If it starts to gain a wider acceptance then I would expect great returns. Market cap is less than $500 mill I believe.
5 trades so far on SNAP. I’m at the point now where it’s all house money from here on out.
So I ask the kids what do the other elementary kids use at school?
……Instagram and SNAP.
Do they use FB?
…..NO!
Do they use TWTR?
……NO!
This has nothing to do with the price of rice in China but it does say that FB and TWTR have to contend with SNAP whether they like it or not.
FB should offer $40 right now using stock swap and cash.
I asked two millennials about this in class yesterday. Neither one of them use Snapchat, but they both used to have accounts. All of their friends use it and it’s still incredibly popular. Neither one of them knew Snap went public.
Not that I truly give a shit. Only in $SNAP for a trade.
Where is the Porsche license plate guy?
I already got my Porsche from the business I sold. Now I’m looking to keep it and get me my Lamborghini!
i presume you’re talking about me? i’m here.
Going to buy MRO, COG, CHK and APA soon
I’ve been swinging that tomahawk with SPA too
APA *
Totally crap entries today but what the hell….lots of range left. APA was my first energy entry couple weeks ago. Hoping for more pullback today/ tomorrow to get more long.
Thanks to OA and Fly for continuously providing stellar insight and guile to “pleebs” like me haha…mahalo! Promising an IBC script purchase once some extra $ is available.
-MC
Need OA’s brilliance to take affect here now again or some higher up intervention. SNAP Apr 13’s not looking good for me. Picked up some Apr 28’s on this dip. Go baby go!
In same boat re Apr 13’s and might have been too aggressive, but remember, two weeks is a looooong time for a stock like this to make some major moves…
How aggressive are we talking? 23’s or 30’s?
25’s core + small amount of 27’s / 28’s
Got some near money BIDU calls right here for a quick trade and proud to say I cashed in this morning with LULU and did the CMG call thing yesterday for hundreds of percents but missed out on the thousand percent if carried overnight.
Not panicing here but clearly seems the scenarious not playing out the way it has been predicted… so a bit uneasy, I must say
Had you bought the low, it is working fine. Had you bought the high, we’re all waiting for you to shit your pants and sell.
I bought some at the low, some in 22-23s next week ones…
Despite all the “carnage” my core snap position is still up 300% and my weekly is 147%. Granted i was up 600% and 1000% but that’s the risk with holding…..if the targets play out over the next couple weeks then the returns will make Monday’s high blush.
LMAO! Again with the “shit your pants and sell”
Sell it on the 22 break.
Was the reference to Ed Grimley intentional?
”
lanforce
December 10, 2013 at 3:42 pm
As many of you know, I follow a LOT of “advisory” services. These include the “name brand” (Cramer et all, Options Profit etc.,) as well as the boutique (you know, the ones that claim 99% wins – but only if you buy options four months out). Happily and thankfully, the number of services is dwindling as the subscriptions expire.
But I’d like to repeat and emphasize what I said last night in AH:
NO single person or entity that I’m involved with even had this on their radar (other than the normal IPO hype).
They missed it completely – It wasn’t chartable, it wasn’t follow the herd, it wasn’t something they even contemplated.
It amazes me how quickly we forget these megawins in here – a quick lookback in the brief time I’ve been here includes spot-on calls with BIDU, YOKU, AAPL (another one where the doubters screamed as they got rich), APOL, VMW, FSLR (round 1) etc.,
Think about this for a moment – what other trader on the planet could come up with TWO option plays that yielded well over 1,000 percent returns. Perhaps we should rename the strategy from win big/lose small to win mega/lose a little.
The best thanks we can give Jeff on TWTR is to NOT BLOW the exit. Personally, I overbought on this so that on the pop, I had surplus options to pay for the trade. Everything I have on now is pure profit – no emotional selling here.
I’m completely focused on making this one the perfect trade – I planned my entry down to the nickle, was pleasantly surprised Monday morning when it popped, then stuck to my trade plan.
We won’t get these every day. Appreciate and maximize it when we do – properly traded, it makes up for a lot of sins.
Jeff – perhaps the greatest testimony I can give you is not that you have convinced me how good this service is – you’ve convinced my wife, who for all things dollar related, is the PIC (Pilot in Command) in this household.
Many thanks, and congratulations.”
-Lanforce
WOW. Man, I remember this.
#LongLiveLanforce
Jeff curious if you like NTNX here? Thank you in advance.
Did he say 2 1000% returns?
SNAP Long Mar24 21 calls $0.17 $ 2.15 Sold half, monster win +1165% $ 23 1164.71% 3/23/17 1:55 pm
SNAP Long Mar24 21 calls $0.17 $ 1.75 Closed the remainder of this weeks calls, great win! $ 23 929.41% 3/24/17 2:58 pm
🙂
Sell off seemed to be triggered by Sell Rating from Stifel. Assholes, they might derail our plan for a day, but we’ll get them tomorrow.
unfortunately Jeff, you weren’t an egomaniac in 2013…you changed in 2016-2017. Start printing out all the 100% option blowouts you gave your group monthly. And learn some humility.
Crazy idea, but you can stop following him and not participate in this trade if you don’t like his temperament. Personally, I’ll take cocky and snarky with 1000% returns over polite and useless any day.
…Sounds like you might be butt hurt at fitting the description in this post.
Shots. Fired.
Egomaniac? How so? What offended you?
I have losses like anyone else. You see how it all adds up in the end, and that’s why you spent as much time with me as you did.
gator, you might want to revist the AH video explanations of the equity curve
Long $CF. Went long $RYI and $FCX yesterday against my better judgement. Glad I did.
OA, how do you gauge the rate at which sentiment changes? Obviously you crushed the bottom of this trade, but if this is a good secondary entry point, how do you determine which expiry’s to purchase?
Come sign in and I’ll tell ya.
I’ll pop in this afternoon, thanks.