“Germany, Europe’s largest economy, will be tipped into recession as the sovereign debt crisis roiling its neighbors extends into the new year, according to the Bloomberg Global Poll.

Even as European leaders laud their latest fix for Greece’s debt woes, 53 percent of 862 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers said this week they think Germany’s economy will drop into a recession for the first time in more than three years. Sixty-four percent expect Europe’s debt turmoil to deepen again despite recent signs of calming in its financial markets.

A slump in the German economy would remove a rare engine of demand for the rest of the continent, probably extending the euro-area-wide recession that was confirmed last quarter. A contraction would also pose a challenge for Chancellor Angela Merkel who is seeking a third term in elections next year amid domestic disquiet with three years of supporting Europe’s debt- lashed governments.

“Germany is starting to feel some pressure as sentiment in the euro-zone weighs on its economy,” said Chanoine Webb, a poll participant and global investment analyst at Close Brothers Asset Management Ltd. in London. “It won’t be able to decouple for much longer.” ”

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Right now many games of chicken are being played. Business vs workers, Dems vs GOP, bears vs bulls, etc.

It is in my opinion that the fiscal cliff will be resolved one way or the other.

You need not be a chicken and buy up equities with cocaine gorilla fever.

While I’m generally a bear who makes more short bets than longs, i have to say that the markets are giving me a gut feeling that for the next few months the BEARS ARE FUCKING DEAD.

The last time i felt this way the S&P went from 1100 to 1470 in no time at all.

The writing is on the wall. Bernanke says he has little tools left in the box; so congress and the White House need to take center stage, the markets have expressed dismay (not shear terror,) at not resolving the fiscal cliff, Spanish and Italian bond yields are falling like stones, idiot countries are lining up for austerity in exchange for bailouts, critical technical levels are broken and then erased instantly, and this is fucking America for Christ’s sake.

The only thing that i find suspicious is the enormous amount of dividends being paid out. Usually an equity trap, but plausible given next year’s tax implications.

Enjoy it for now. We shall see what happens over the next two qs. It seems like it is safe to play hard in the garden being long equities.

The bears are scared little shits climbing up trees.

Prepare for a gunshot in the cave while your sleeping bears.

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzQAhC3ra4w 450 300]

 

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“The world economy is in its best shape in 18 months as China’s prospects improve and the U.S. looks likely to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Two-thirds of the 862 surveyed described the global economy as either stable or improving. That’s up from just over half who said that in September and is the most since May 2011.”

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“As always, here are some seasonal data points from the Stock Traders Almanac for the month of December.  Historically, December is the best month of the year and is especially strong for high beta names:”

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“Although it was not impacted by super storm Sandy, a small coastal island off of Alabama has become an example for why the federal government should reconsider its rebuild-it-no-matter-what policy, critics contend.

Since 1979, Dauphin Island has been hit by nearly a dozen hurricanes and major storms, including Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Most recently, it was blasted by Hurricane Isaac in August of this year. The community of 1,300 residents has received plenty of help to rebuild houses and infrastructure. In fact, at least $80 million in federal tax dollars has been given to Dauphin Island over the decades.”

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“In spite of positive economic news recently from the US and China, global business sentiment remains subdued. In fact according to Markit, business confidence is at the lowest level since the financial crisis.”

Full article and charts

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“U.S. small-business sentiment ticked up 0.3 in October—nearly unchanged—as uncertainty about future business conditions reached a record high.

Getty Images

The National Federation of Independent Business said its optimism index rose to 93.1 last month, after slipping in September.

“We haven’t been above 95 during this entire recovery” that started in July 2009, said William Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist.

The survey, conducted before the presidential election, found that the percentage of owners uncertain about whether business conditions would be better or worse in six months reached a record high of 23 percent, the NFIB said. This eclipsed the pre-recession record of 15 percent reached during the Carter Administration.

 

“The Index still remains in solidly pessimistic—and recessionary—territory,” said Dunkelberg in a prepared statement.”

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Odd coincidence that i was reading an article on DOW 6k and then Harry Dent has an interview on CNBC talking about debt and DOW 6k today.

Here is an interesting article, (from the beginning of the year,) on Fractal Analysis and DOW 6k.

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“Bullish sentiment rose to its highest level since August, while bearish sentiment remained above its historical average in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 2.8 percentage points to 38.5%. Optimism was last higher on August 23, 2012. The rise puts bullish sentiment close to its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 1.7 percentage points to 21.6%. The last time neutral sentiment was lower was October 6, 2011. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 1.1 percentage points to 39.9%. This is the first time in four weeks that pessimism is below 40%, though the current reading is admittedly just barely below that mark. This is also the 11th consecutive week and the 27th out of the last 31 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.”

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“Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) — I’ve made a lot of computer blunders over the years. The biggest was taking a perfectly well- functioning Sony Vaio and upgrading it from Windows XP to Windows Vista, which left it so crash-prone as to be all but useless.

So please believe me when I offer this word of advice on installing Microsoft’s shiny new Windows 8 operating system:

Don’t.

Windows 8 is far from the disaster Vista was. But unless you have a very recent personal computer with a touch screen, there are few benefits — and some significant drawbacks in terms of learning curve and usability — to upgrading from Windows 7.”

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[youtube://http://www.youtubwatch?v=MbvYwg-Aqis 450 300]

Read between the lines..FU $MON

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“Earlier this year, Professor Robert Prechter, founder of Elliot Wave International, published a study titled Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results.

Here’s a quick summary of Prechter’s findings:

The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.

It’s all pretty intuitive.

However, Prechter’s study did include one interesting nugget of information.  Specifically, he found that big moves in the stock market are correlated with “landslide” wins during presidential elections.

“Socionomic theory proposes that more extreme changes in social mood tend to motivate more extreme voting preferences for or against the leader,” wrote Prechter.

From Prechter’s study:”

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Thankfully, this will be nothing like Sandy. All we need is Jack Frost to exhale and we could enjoy some snow….the stuff we did not get last year.

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Weather people are freaked out about the magnitude of Sandy….

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“The majority of Americans seem OK with just waddling through life, accepting the lies and misinformation blasted from the boob tube and their various iGadgets by their owners, gorging themselves to death on Twinkies and Cheetos, paying 15% interest on their $10,000 rolling credit card balance, and growing ever more dependent on the welfare/warfare state to provide and protect them from accepting personal responsibility for their lives. A minority of critical thinking people have chosen to question everything they see and hear being spewed at us by the propagandist mainstream media. What do ‘we, the people’ want? As it seems the entitlement “free shit” mentality permeates our culture. The question is whether we will stand idly by, fiddling with our gadgets, tweeting about Honey Boo Boo, or will we regain our sense of duty to the future generations of this country.”

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“Baby boomers took the economic equivalent of a king salmon from their parents and, before they passed it on, gobbled up everything but the bones.”

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“A study by engineers based at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology has questioned some common assumptions about the environmental credentials of electric cars.

Published this week in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, the “comparative environmental life cycle assessment of conventional and electric vehicles” begins by stating that “it is important to address concerns of problem-shifting”. By this, the authors mean that by solving one problem, do electric cars create another? And, if so, does this environmental harm then outweigh any advantages?

The study highlights in particular the “toxicity” of the electric car’s manufacturing process compared to conventional petrol/diesel cars. It concludes that the “global warming potential” of the process used to make electric cars is twice that of conventional cars.”

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“Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) suspended a trader for trying to rig the Singaporedollar swap offer rate, indicating employees may have sought to manipulate more than just Libor, two people briefed on the matter said.

Senior trader Chong Wen Kuang was put on leave earlier this year for trying to rig the interest rate to benefit his trading position, said the people who asked not to be identified because the bank is probing his actions. He is the first RBS employee to be suspended or fired for attempting to rig a benchmark other than the London interbank offered rate, one of the people said.”

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Phil Pearlman is out with a fantastic piece of wisdom. I recommend you give it a read, here.

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“The European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program could hinder a recovery in the euro zone if it eases pressure on governments to implement reforms, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in an interview with Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung.

Weidmann questioned whether bond-purchase programs are the appropriate mechanism for solving structural problems, such as the lack of competitiveness and loss of trust in an individual country’s fiscal policies, according to the interview. Weidmann was the only member of the ECB Governing Council to oppose the so-called Outright Monetary Transactions program.”

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