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Market Update

Global Markets Pare Some Losses on Comments That Germany Favors Building a Bailout Package for Greece

“European stocks pared their declines and the euro swung between gains and losses against the dollar after Bild Zeitung said Germany favored bundling a rescue- package to Greece. Metals led commodities lower.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) dropped 0.4 percent at 7:30 a.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.8 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures sank 0.4 percent, after losing as much as 0.9 percent. The euro was little changed at $1.2705. Zinc, nickel and lead dropped at least 0.5 percent after Xinhua News Agency reported China may expand a property tax trial.”

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Rail Traffic Takes a Major Detour to the Downside

“Rail traffic turned down sharply this week as intermodal traffic dipped -6.2%.  That brings the 3 month moving average to 2.7%, down sharply from last week’s reading of 3.5%.  One week doesn’t make a trend, but rail trends haven’t been negative since 2009 so this is one to keep a close eye on if things continue to deteriorate.  Here’s more from the AAR:”

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Technical Analysis Suggests You Fasten Your Seat Belts and Get Out the Barf Bag

 

As momentum, a shifting currency tide and now even sentiment continues to work against the grain of a slouching equity market structure, many market participants are now just beginning to question if the bull’s ship has finally sailed.

In a week full of emotion and frustration extending from the presidential, congressional and senatorial elections, there is a surplus of pundit causations to fit every wiggle with each tail.

And although some of these may have logical underpinnings, like good propaganda – a seed of truth and convenient correlation is stretched far beyond legitimacy. ”

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The Week Ahead

Investors want to forget last week’s sell off, and look forward. But that may be hard to do as technically and politically speaking we are broken. Thankfully, earnings are better than expected with Q3 estimates only down 0.3% yoy.

Next week you want to pay attention to ” Target , Wal-Mart and Home Depot.

Consumer discretionary companies have outperformed the broader S&P 500 in earnings, with 72 percent of the companies in that sector beating analysts’ expectations, compared with 63 percent for the S&P 500 as a whole.

Investors will be paying close attention to those results with the holiday shopping period around the corner, said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey, which oversees about $1 billion in assets.”

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Gold Outperforms Stocks for a Third Year in a Row

“Year-to-Date, the S&P 500 has just dropped back below Gold…Gold’s performance year-to-date just surpassed that of the S&P 500 once again. If this remains the case into year-end, this will be the third year in a row that Gold has outperformed stocks. Looking forward, which ‘asset’ would you choose – Stocks with an implied volatility of 17% or Gold at 15.75% to the end of the year? Sharpe Ratio anyone? Perhaps asking your ‘asset allocator’ what his weighting is based on will be a worthwhile conversation – with the outperforming returns (past is not a predictor of the future – and noone knows) but lower forward risk expectations?

YTD performance across asset classes…”

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Bulls Get a Little Kick in the Nutz

Not a bloody day like yesterday, but a follow through day none the less.

S&P closes below the 200 day and we had accelerated selling into the bell.

DOW down 120

S&P down 17

NASDAQ  down 41

Gold up $19

WTI up $0.55

The story

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XyTpENuoCI 450 300]

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Global Credit Cycle Suggest More Vol and Less Returns Going Forward

“After a brief period of stabilization, our measure of global credit impulse has plummeted. This does not bode well for European equities.

The credit impulses in all three major economies – the euro area, the U.S. and China – are now negative, albeit very slightly in the case of China. This is the first time in three years that all three components have been simultaneously negative. And after hovering at a point of inflection the combined credit cycle indicator has lurched down again.”

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ETF Corner

Most heavily shorted

RTH, XRT, RKH, FXE, XOP

Today’s Biggest Gainers

FXP, YANG, BZQ, RUSS, SQQQ

Today’s Biggest Losers

GREK, UVU, XPP, YINN, UBR

Top ETF Stock Components

$BCA, $MSFT, $SPG, $XOM, $AAPL

Source

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Market Update

U.S. equities were hopeful and traded to the upside at the open. Trying to forget yesterday’s beating proved to hard for the bulls. As a result Europe began to pare all gains and closed in the red helping U.S. markets to go negative.

Currently the DOW is off 35 bones while the S&P is off 5. Analysts are calling for support on the S&P initially at 1375, 1363, and then 1319. At 1319 we would be in a 10% correction and typically where many investors have stepped in to buy over the past few years.

Oil is all over the map currently up $0.76.

Gold is up $9.

The greenback has softened and treasuries are being bot.

$AAPL breaks further into bear market territory; currently down $11.19 $546

Market update

European market closing prices

3D heat map

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJDnJ0vXUgw 450 300]

 

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U.S. Equities Pare Opening Gains on Greek Fears and $AAPL Sliding Further Into Bear Market Territory

“U.S. stocks fell, following the biggest selloff in a year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, asApple Inc. (AAPL) slumped and a European Union official said a decision on unlocking funds for Greece may not be made until late November.

Apple lost 1.7 percent, extending its decline since its Sept. 19 high to 22 percent. JPMorgan gained 1.3 percent after saying the Federal Reserve allowed its proposal to buy back as much as $3 billion in common equity during next year’s first quarter.Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), the largest seller of mobile-phone semiconductors, climbed 6.9 percent after forecasting sales and profit that topped estimates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,392.01 at 10:51 a.m. New York time, after gaining as much as 0.5 percent earlier. The Dow dropped 27.18 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,905.55. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 9.4 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day.

Finance chiefs won’t make the call to release 31.5 billion euros ($40.1 billion) of aid for Greece that has been frozen since June when they meet in Brussels on Nov. 12, an EU official said today on condition of anonymity because the deliberations are private.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras mustered support in Parliament to approve austerity measures needed to unlock bailout funds, in a tense vote that weakened his majority after the expulsion of seven dissenting lawmakers. The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold today as the economic outlook worsens and Spain resists asking for a bailout that would open the door to ECB bond purchases.

Jobless Claims”

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