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Market Update

Stock Twit Technicians Reveal The Charts You Must Watch for 2013

“Some of the best technicians on StockTwits have offered up charts they will be watching most closely in the year ahead. Take a look…

1. Bikini Analytics (@BikiniAnalytics): JPM – Is the 11th Attempt a Charm? JPM is a bellweather money center bank that has bumped up against this 45 area 11 times over the last 6 years. If it finally manages to break out through this level, hold and run higher it will have bullish implications for the financial sector and for the broader market as well. 

 

stocktwits charts 2013

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U.S. Equities Likely to Wait Around for Earnings, Futures Unchanged

“U.S. stock futures were little changed, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s decline yesterday, before Alcoa Inc. (AA) publishes its quarterly results, kicking off the corporate-earnings season.

Alcoa gained 0.9 percent as analysts forecast the aluminum producer will report its strongest annual earnings growth in three years. Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) tumbled 5 percent after saying fourth-quarter sales in China decreased more than it had projected. Plexus Corp. (PLXS) slid 4.3 percent in late trading yesterday after saying that it expects revenue and earnings in the fiscal first quarter to fall short of its previous estimate.

S&P 500 futures expiring in March declined less than 0.1 percent to 1,455.1 at 7:27 a.m. in New York. The equity benchmark retreated 0.3 percent yesterday, after rallying to a five-year high last week. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4 points, less than 0.1 percent, to 13,311 today…”

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European Markets Move Higher on Better Than Expected Economic Confidence

European stocks rose as the region’s economic confidence topped forecasts and investors awaited the start of the fourth-quarter U.S. earnings season. Asian shares retreated and U.S. index futures were little changed.

Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) surged the most in five months as the Wall Street Journal reported that Verizon Communications Inc. said it’s feasible it will buy the U.K. company’s stake in their Verizon Wireless joint venture. TGS Nopec Geophysical ASA rallied 7 percent as the Norwegian offshore surveyor forecast revenue that exceeded estimates. Debenhams Plc (DEB) slid 6.4 percent after the retailer cut its profit-margin forecast….”

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European Markets Fall Back, Bank Shares Rally on Basel Rules

“Stocks in Europe fell from a 22- month high and the yen rebounded from a 2 1/2-year low against the dollar. Banks rose as regulators watered down liquidity rules while Italian bonds retreated.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) slipped 0.2 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York after closing at its highest level since February 2011 last week. BNP Paribas SA and Barclays Plc led banks higher. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell less than 0.1 percent. The yen advanced against all major peers, adding 0.3 percent versus the dollar. Italian and Spanish bonds declined. Copper slid 0.6 percent and oil lost 0.5 percent.

Central bankers meeting yesterday in Basel, Switzerland, allowed lenders to use a wider range of assets to meet the so- called liquidity coverage ratio amid warnings the proposal would strangle lending and stifle the economic recovery. Alcoa Inc. (AA) will unofficially kick off the U.S. earnings reporting season after the market closes tomorrow. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s Governing Council will meet Jan. 10 to focus on nursing the euro region back to economic health.

“Markets that had enjoyed a nice rally recently are giving back part of their gains,” said Heo Pil Seok, chief executive officer at Midas International Asset Management Ltd., which oversees $5.5 billion. “Earnings season in some countries kicks off soon, which will be keenly watched by investors at least until early February.”

Banks Climb”

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Hawkish Tones on QE Spooked The Market From The FOMC Report

“….Various members stressed the importance of a continuing assessment of labor market developments and reviews of the program’s efficacy and costs at upcoming FOMC meetings.

In considering the outlook for the labor market and the broader economy, a few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013, while a few others emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases.

Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet. One member viewed any additional purchases as unwarranted.

This language lends to the argument that the Fed may actually be moving toward tightening policy. …”

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Fed Minutes Make Stocks Take a Fall

“Bullish jobs data collided with hawkish Fed comments.

 

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,390, -22.4, -0.1 percent
S&P 500: 1,458, -4.2, -0.3 percent
NASDAQ: 3,099, -13.7, -0.4 percent

And now the top stories:

  • It’s jobs week in America.  According to ADP, the private sector added 215k jobs in December.  This was much higher than the 140k expected by economists.  This is a good sign because many consider this to be the preview for the official employment situation report, which will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET.
  • According to Challenger Gray And Christmas, announced layoffs plunged in December from November and December from the year prior.  However, this number tends be noisy.  In November, the number spiked due to the Hostess bankruptcy.
  • Initial claims, however, were disappointing.  Claims for the week ending December 29 jumped to 372k, which was higher than the 360k expected by economists.  Also, the prior week’s number was revised up to 362k from a preliminary reading of 350k.
  • The big story of the day was certainly the minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  This was the same meeting when the Fed announced it would employ unemployment rate and inflation rate targets to guide monetary policy.  Many saw this as an extremely dovish move.  However, according to the minutes today, we learned that several members of the FOMC actually wanted to halt or cut quantitative easing programs before the end of 2013, which is much sooner than most would’ve expected.
  • Stocks and gold instantly tanked on the news…”

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25 Stocks Short Sellers are All Over

“The S&P 500 ended 2012 up a solid 13 percent, which was brutal for the bears shorting the market.

Maybe the shorts will have better luck this year.

We compiled a list of the 25 stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of float.

The list includes retail giants and major homebuilders.

For your reference, we also included 1-year stock performance. ”

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Asia Opens Higher in the Wake of Wall Street’s Momentum

“Most Asian stocks rose, pushing a regional equities index to its highest level in 17 months, after a gauge of U.S. manufacturing added to optimism that the outlook for economic growth is improving.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, climbed 1.7 percent in Sydney as metals prices rose. Australian miner Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP) soared 16 percent, the most in four years, amid speculation that South African supply of the metal will be lower during the first quarter. Samsung Electronics Co. fell 1.3 percent in Seoul after being named in a new patent- infringement complaint filed in Washington by InterDigital Inc. over technology related to the latest mobile-phone standards…”

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Asian  indices

 

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Stocks Beat Bonds by the Widest Margin Since 2009, Global Easing Root Cause

“Unprecedented central bank stimulus sent global stocks to the biggest annual rally in three years, beating bonds, commodities and the dollar by the most since 2009 as shares surged from America to Germany and Venezuela.

The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities increased 16.9 percent in 2012 including dividends after climbing 2.3 percent in December. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities rose 0.1 percent last year, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) lost 0.5 percent. Bonds of all types returned 5.73 percent, on average, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index….”

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Rising Commodities Take South Africa To New Highs

“South Africa’s benchmark stock index rose to a record as commodity prices surged after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill that averted spending cuts and tax increases threatening the world’s biggest economy.

The FTSE/JSE Africa All-Share Index climbed as much as 1.6 percent to 39,873.15, and traded 1.5 percent stronger at 11:20 a.m. in Johannesburg. The measure advanced 23 percent last year. Anglo American Plc (AAL), a diversified miner that makes up about 9 percent of the gauge, surged 5 percent to a two-month high. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) advanced 3.5 percent…”

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Look What Happened the Last Time Gold Decoupled From Central Bank Activity

From 9/11 on, Gold and the world’s central bank balance sheets were as correlated as over-consumption and a hangover (and linked just as causally we suggest). Then a funny thing happened in 2008 – gold slid as the central banks went extreme. Of course, as this divergence occurred, the world’s stock markets imploded almost as if the central banks knew their status quo was about to go entirely pear-shaped. From 2008 until November of 2011 (when the world’s central banks began their coordinated ease-fest) the correlation went limit up once again. Since then, Gold and CB largesse once again decoupled as liquidity is flushed around the world’s markets to suspend reality just a little longer. While this divergence is not as extreme as in 2008, something is afoot…”

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