The loud sounds of the left-politician Tsipras were just the straw that has brought the camel’s back. In the EU, the ECB and the IMF have been completed with the issue. Greece must get out of the euro, it is generally agreed across all sectors. The information contained in the former central banker and technocratic Prime Minister Lucas Papademos had delivered. He had enough time to convince the one hand, the full extent of the calamity, and also by the unwillingness of the parties to save money. Basically, his tenure was a fact-finding mission on behalf of the EU. His conclusion: Mission Impossible. About the consequences, there are different views: the central bankers do not want to pay more because they see that the whole is a bottomless pit. The politicians, led by Angela Merkel reluctant yet. As always there are the politicians advocate the status quo, because they fear nothing more than the unknown. And there are unknowns with a Euro exit any quantities.
It begins with the question: How does it work really practical? An outlet to see the EU treaties before any more than one eviction. For safety reasons, both the ECB and the Bundesbank formed crisis teams that are preparing now as the commanders on various contingencies. A small consolation is believed to have, because the debt incision was made, and therefore actually is a direct contamination of the banks as rather unlikely. Although this may not confirm officially Banker: The unofficial interpretation is that the risk of infection by the average debt “significantly reduced” was.
Most debts are now in the public sector – ie the ECB and the IMF. In the case of a state bankruptcy of Greece on the Target 2 system, the German Bundesbank would be taken immediately. Altogether, it is so appreciated, are the Greeks with 200 billion euros at the ECB and the IMF in debt. Therefore, all of which are currently very careful with scenarios: One does not want to be in the cards look. And as even the most amicable divorce in the end always haggled over the cost. Even the ECB and the IMF want to see their money again. They need the cooperation of the Greeks. A representative of the public sector: “When it comes to the discharge, the creditors will negotiate with the debtor. The creditors have no interest that the debtor is no longer on the legs. ”
However, the debtor to cooperate with the creditors, some skirmishes will be fought. The Greeks would say, then we throw it out once – we do not pay but not our debt.
This game can not last for long. Since Greece can take no money in the capital markets, Greece must cooperate with the Troika. Without money, the country is very fast at the end: it can pay its civil servants no longer afford no energy, public life threatens to spiral out of control.
Right here wants to start the Troika: The next installment is due in June, there will be only when the Greeks come up with a fairly reasonable exit plan. Until then, the ECB can keep up with their financial instruments, the Greek banks so far over water, not everything falls apart.
At the same time it is hoped the troika that the ESM is surprising, because then enough money is available to prevent the contamination of other states. Because you can answer a question no one, like a of involved banker says: “We all know not whether it comes after the withdrawal of the Greeks to a domino effect or whether it really is the great liberation has been.” There is always some require “discretionary action” of the ECB to keep the situation under control. In plain German: As some will have to be printed on money, so the crash can not go but even the whole euro zone in the air.
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