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WTI Rises Again on Lower Stockpile Concerns

“West Texas Intermediate crude rose for a second day in New York, trading near its highest level in a week after U.S. stockpiles dropped the most this year.

Futures climbed as much as 0.8 percent after gaining 0.5 percent yesterday. U.S. crude supplies slid by 6.3 million barrels last week, the most since December, data from the Energy Information Administration showed yesterday. They were projected to decline by 800,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Monthly U.S. jobs data will be released tomorrow. The European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their benchmark interest ratesunchanged.

“The weekly inventory data yesterday surprised quite a bit,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by phone today. “We have the U.S. monthly job report tomorrow and central bank meetings today, so there’s potential for a bit of position squaring.”

WTI for July delivery advanced as much as 72 cents to $94.46 a barrel, and was at $94.27 a barrel, up 53 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:01 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 14 percent above the 100-day average. The contract rose 43 cents yesterday to $93.74, the highest close since May 28.

Brent for July settlement increased 16 cents to $103.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $8.90 to WTI futures, down from $9.30 yesterday.

BFOE Loadings…”

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Au Back Over $1,400 As Investment Monies Exit Equities

“Gold rebounded to trade above $1,400 an ounce as equities retreated and the dollar’s rally halted, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. Silver, platinum and palladium increased.

Spot gold rose as much as 0.7 percent to $1,408.50 an ounce, and traded at $1,405.06 at 2:12 p.m. in Singapore. Prices decreased 0.9 percent yesterday. Cash silver advanced 0.4 percent to $22.6295 an ounce.

Gold dropped 16 percent this year as investors sold the metal from exchange-traded products at a record pace and the MSCI All-Country World Index rallied 7.8 percent. Asian stocks fell for the fourth time in five days, while the Dollar Index lost 0.2 percent. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust declined to 1,010.45 metric tons, shrinking for the first time in a week….”

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WTI Futures Rebound as Supplies Fall

“West Texas Intermediate traded near its highest intraday level in four days amid signs of a reduction in U.S. crude inventories.

Futures gained as much as 0.7 percent in New York. A government report today will show supplies declined by 800,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that crude stockpiles shrank 7.8 million barrels last week, the most since Dec. 28. The U.S. will today extend waivers from sanctions for nine nations that import Iranian oil, a U.S. official said.

“The big drop in crude inventories in the API report is supporting things,” said Andy Sommer, a senior oil analyst at Axpo Trading AG in Dietikon, Switzerland, who predicts that Brent, the European benchmark, will trade from $100 to $105 a barrel this month. “The market is going to tighten going into the third quarter.”

WTI for July delivery climbed as much as 68 cents to $93.99 a barrel in electronic trading on theNew York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.80 as of 12:51 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 28 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for July settlement was 18 cents higher at $103.42 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $9.64 to WTI. The spread was $9.93 yesterday, the widest based on closing prices since April.

Fuel Supplies…”

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WTI Gets Weak in the Knees as Supplies are Expected to Rise Again

“West Texas Intermediate crude fell after the biggest gain in a month, amid forecasts that inventories of gasoline expanded last week in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer.

Futures retreated as much as 0.8 percent in New York. Gasoline stockpiles probably climbed by1.2 million barrels last week, while distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, may have gained 1.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Information Administration report tomorrow. Crude inventories declined by an estimated 650,000 barrels last week, sliding from an 82-year high, the survey showed.

“The market is in bad shape,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Demand is sluggish, and supplies are ample.”

WTI for July delivery slid as much as 72 cents to $92.73 a barrel in electronic trading on theNew York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.83 as of 12:21 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 8 percent below the 100-day average. The contract rose $1.48 to $93.45 yesterday, the biggest gain since May 3.

Brent for July settlement dropped as much as 46 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $101.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $8.89 to WTI, up from $8.61 yesterday.

Chart Resistance…”

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Hedge Funds Increase Bullish Au Bets

“Hedge funds raised bets on a gold rally by the most in two months as the U.S. economy expanded less than previously estimated, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain the pace of stimulus.

Speculators raised their net-long position by 35 percent to 48,096 futures and options by May 28, the biggest gain since March 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Most of the gain came from a drop in short bets, which reached a record a week earlier. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities climbed 13 percent to a nine-week high of 652,708 contracts, led by gains in corn and natural gas….”

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Au Rises a Bit Despite a Drop in ETF Holdings

“Gold advanced in New York and London, trimming a second monthly decline, as lower prices lured buyers of the physical metal amid an extended drop in holdings in exchange-traded products. Silver also gained.

The U.S. Mint is on pace to sell 62,100 ounces of gold coins in May, 17 percent more than a year earlier, according to data released yesterday. The agency resumed taking orders for its one-tenth ounce gold coin yesterday, said Michael White, a mint spokesman. Sales were suspended in April while demand surged after prices tumbled. Gold has slumped 17 percent this year in London as investors slashed holdings in exchange traded funds amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve would taper asset purchases that helped bullion cap a 12-year bull run in 2012.

“In contrast to demand among institutional investors, who withdrew funds from the gold ETFs again yesterday, gold demand among retail investors thus remains extremely robust,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in an e-mailed report today.

Gold for August delivery advanced 0.8 percent to $1,391 an ounce by 8:04 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The price headed for a 5.5 percent drop in May and a second monthly decline. Trading volumes were 98 percent higher than the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,391.56 an ounce in London. Prices fell 1 percent yesterday as U.S. economic data backed the case for a cut in monetary stimulus by the Fed.

Holdings Shrink…”

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Black Gold Falls as OPEC Says Output is Stable

“West Texas Intermediate crude fell before data likely to show a decline in U.S. gasoline stockpiles as OPEC delegates in Vienna indicated the group will leave its output target unchanged at this week’s meeting.

Futures dropped as much as 1 percent in New York after gaining for the first time in a week yesterday as U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest in five years. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production limit at 30 million barrels a day at a May 31 meeting in Vienna, said two delegates who asked not to be identified because the decision isn’t yet final. An Energy Information Administration report tomorrow may show gasoline supplies dropped 650,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“OPEC will be a non-event, as the key producers seem quite happy with the status quo,” saidCarsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “In the inventory report, gasoline stock change will be most important to watch,” with the U.S. entering the peak summer driving season, he said.

WTI for July delivery was at $94.14 a barrel, down 87 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:56 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 3 percent above the 100-day average. The contract climbed 86 cents to $95.01 yesterday. Prices are up 0.7 percent this month after losing 3.9 percent in April.

China Loans…”

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Black Gold Breaks Last Weeks Losing Streak

“BANGKOK (AP) — The price of oil rose above $94 per barrel Tuesday as traders awaited U.S. economic indicators following a long holiday weekend.

Benchmark oil for July delivery was up 43 cents to $94.56 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 10 cents to close at $94.15 per barrel on Friday. Monday was a public holiday in the U.S. and Britain.

Traders think global energy demand could weaken after a survey by HSBC Corp. released last week showed a decline in China’s manufacturing for May. An official report on factory production in the world’s second-largest economy will be released later in the week…..”

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Au Bulls Become More Bullish Despite Tapering Being on the Table

“Gold traders are the most bullish in a month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernankesignaled record stimulus will continue until the economy improves.

Twelve analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, with nine bearish and eight neutral, the highest proportion of bulls since April 26. Prices rose 58 percent since 2008 as the Fed led central banks in debt purchases. Bullion is poised for its first weekly gain in three and trading and investment company Degussa Goldhandel GmbH said demand this month will be double the first-quarter average.

Investors sold 467 metric tons valued at about $21 billion from exchange-traded products this year as some lost faith in gold as a store of value amid an improving U.S. economy and rally in equities. Raising interest rates or curbing bond buying too soon would endanger the recovery, Bernanke said May 22. While prices entered a bear market last month and hedge funds are making the biggest ever bet against the metal, the slump is boosting purchases of jewelry and coins.

“Gold should still be in demand as an alternative currency,” saidDaniel Briesemann, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The quantitative easing by central banks should lead to a depreciation in rates for major currencies and in the end should also lead to some inflation concerns, although this is not an issue at the moment. As long as institutional investors are selling gold ETP holdings, this will probably outweigh robust retail demand.”

Gold Prices

The metal fell 17 percent to $1,387.11 an ounce in London this year after climbing the past 12 years. Gold is the third-worst performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, after silver and corn. The S&P GSCI dropped 3.7 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 9.7 percent. Treasuries lost 0.6 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Bullion rose as much as 2.8 percent and then fell as much as 1.6 percent on May 22 after Bernanke expressed concern to Congress that federal budget cuts were blunting the recovery. He said the pace of bond purchases could be reduced in the next few meetings if the jobless rate keeps dropping. Many Fed officials said more progress in the labor market is needed before paring the $85 billion in monthly purchases, minutes of their last meeting showed the same day.

Physical Demand….”

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WTI Continues to Fall After The Largest Weekly Downside Action in a Month

“West Texas Intermediate headed for its biggest weekly drop in more than a month amid signs of rising U.S. oil inventories and a global economic slowdown.

Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent in New York. Prices may decline next week amid speculation that U.S. fuel supplies will be sufficient to meet summer demand after factory output in China shrank for the first time in seven months, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended selling WTI and buying Brent contracts for December 2014 as supplies accumulate on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

“U.S. crude stocks are very well-filled, and there’s some disappointing economic data from China,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) in Vienna, who estimates WTI will average $92 this quarter. “It’s not the best cocktail for crude.”

WTI for July delivery fell as much as 78 cents to $93.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.55 as of 12:02 p.m. London time. The volume of all contracts traded was 0.5 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are 2.6 percent lower this week, the most since the seven days ended April 19.

Brent for July settlement fell 24 cents to $102.20 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark was at a premium of $8.67 to WTI compared with $8.19 yesterday.

The spread is still set to narrow toward $5 a barrel in the third quarter as new pipeline capacity to move crude out of Cushing causes stockpiles there to decline “substantially,” Goldman said.

Sweet Crude….”

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Commodities Lead the Way Down the Rabbit Hole

“Commodities fell for a third day, paced by declines in copper and oil, as manufacturing in China unexpectedly shrank for the first time in seven months and the head of the Federal Reservehinted that stimulus may be tapered.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index (SPGSCI) of 24 commodities dropped as much as 1.2 percent to the lowest level in a week, and was 0.5 percent lower at 623.11 at 11:46 a.m. inLondon. Copper in London, seen as an indicator of economic activity because of its use in construction, lost 2 percent to $7,324 a ton. Oil in New York sank 0.7 percent.

The preliminary reading for a Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics missed analysts’ estimates and came in below the level of 50 for May, indicating a contraction. China is the biggest metals consumer and the second-largest oil user. The S&P GSCI has fallen 3.7 percent this year as base metals dropped on prospects for surpluses while gold and silver tumbled into bear markets.

“China’s PMI data coming in below forecast is adding a strong downdraft across most commodity markets,” said Mark Keenan, a director of commodities research and strategy at Societe Generale SA in Singapore. “The comments from the Fed, hinting at the scaling back of quantitative easing if the economy improves further, have driven the dollar higher, which is also contributing to the general weakness.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. central bank may reduce the pace of asset purchases in the next few meetings if policy makers can be confident of sustained improvement in the world’s largest economy. The Dollar Index rose to its highest in almost three years today before declining as the yen surged after stocks tumbled.

Labor Market

Bernanke also said in testimony to Congress yesterday that a premature withdrawal of stimulus could endanger the U.S. economic recovery. Many Fed officials said more labor market progress is needed before paring $85 billion in monthly asset purchases, minutes of their last meeting showed yesterday….”

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Au Falls on Expectations of QE/ Stimulus Tapering

“Gold declined, following its first gain in eight sessions, as speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may taper its bond-buying plan curbed demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will discuss the economic outlook in congressional testimony and the central bank will publish minutes of its latest meeting tomorrow. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said yesterday the economy has improved “quite a lot.” Gold futures rose 1.4 percent yesterday, the first gain since May 8, after Moody’s Investors Service said U.S. policy makers must address debt woes to avoid a credit-rating cut this year.

“Market participants should be watching the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are expected to give rise to concerns of the continuation of the QE program,” analysts at Hyderabad, India-based Karvy Comtrade Ltd. wrote today in a report, referring to quantitative easing. “This would weigh down on gold prices.”

Gold for June delivery fell 0.5 percent to $1,376.70 an ounce by 7:47 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices slid to $1,336.30 yesterday, the lowest since April 18, before rebounding. Futures trading volume was 31 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gold for immediate delivery in London declined 1.1 percent to $1,378.80.

ETP Holdings…”

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Black Gold Trades Lower B4 Inventory Data

“West Texas Intermediate crude declined from the highest closing price in seven weeks on speculation that supplies will remain sufficient in the U.S. even if stockpiles decreased as forecast last week.

Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in New York after advancing for a fourth day yesterday. U.S. crude supplies fell by 800,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a report tomorrow from the Energy Information Administration. That would still leave inventories 3 percent higher than a year ago. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its stockpile data today.

“There’s nothing here to fundamentally justify a sustained price push at the moment, while expectations of future supplies are rather comfortable,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London.

WTI for June delivery was at $96.21 a barrel, down 50 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 12:15 p.m. London time. The contract expires today. The volume of all contracts traded was 7.3 percent below the 100-day average. The more active July future fell 52 cents to $96.42. Front-month prices increased 69 cents yesterday, or 0.7 percent, to $96.71, the highest close since April 2.

Brent for July settlement slid 71 cents to $104.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $7.68 to WTI for the same month, down from $7.87 yesterday.

Fuel Supplies….”

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Geo Politics Regarding Syria Halt a Three Day Advance in Black Gold

“West Texas Intermediate crude snapped a three-day gain. Syrian government forces started an offensive against rebels, renewing concern that conflict may destabilize the Middle East.

Futures declined in New York after rising for a third day on May 17. Government forces retook most of the strategic city of Al-Qusair in central Syria, state-run SANA news agency said. Iraq resumed crude exports via Turkey after a bomb attack targeted an oil pipeline on May 17. Hedge funds and other money managers raised bullish bets on Brent to their highest level in six weeks, according to data from ICE Futures Europe.

“Syria is a microcosm of the unrest across the Middle East and could spread to other countries,” said Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London.

WTI for June delivery dropped as much as 69 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $95.33 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $95.50 at 12:42 p.m. London time. The more-active July future slid 53 cents to $95.47. Front-month prices increased 86 cents to $96.02 on May 17, the highest close since May 10.

Brent for July settlement dropped 53 cents to $104.13 a barrel on the London-based ICE exchange. The front-month European benchmark was at a premium of $8.37 to WTI, up from $8.35 on May 17.

‘Civilian Massacre’…”

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Gold Bumps Along a Three Year Bottom, Will the Floor Fall Out ?

“Just a month after gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in three decades, the precious metal has once again fallen victim to heavy selling pressure. But a tug of war between physical buyers and institutional sellers will put a floor under the precious metal, said analysts.

“The physical gold buyers and ETF [exchange traded fund] buyers have different mentalities. The physical buyers love the fact that whenever gold drops it is a buying opportunity,” Kelly Teoh, market strategist at trading firm IG Markets told CNBC.

Spot gold extended its fall below $1,400 an ounce on Thursday, declining to as low as $1,386.89 in early Asian trade. The yellow metal has lost over 5 percent in the past week.

The stellar performance of equities, softer inflation expectations, and strength in the U.S. dollar – which makes gold purchases more expensive – is pushing institutional investors out of gold in search of higher returns. This has lead to selling by exchange traded funds that are backed by physical gold.

Gold ETFs saw their largest ever monthly withdrawals in April as investors reduced their holdings by 176 tonnes, according to the Financial Times which cited Barclays Capital.

However, Teoh said, buyers of physical gold think differently. “They don’t have confidence in central banks, which are just pumping liquidity in the market [eroding the value of money]. There is no conviction in currencies. So it’s a very different mindset.”

“As a friend of mine says, gold is like a religion, you either believe in it or not,” added Teoh.

Premiums for gold bars rallied to all-time highs in major cities in Asia including Hong Kong and Singapore on Thursday after the drop in prices fueled another round of buying, limiting supply, Reuters reported….”

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Black Gold Falls for a Fifth Fifth Day as Europe Probes Price Manipulation

“West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a fifth day in its longest run of declines since December. Antitrust regulators are questioning European oil companies about possible manipulation of prices.

Futures traded near their lowest closing level in almost two weeks in New York. Crude inventories gained 1.1 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institutesaid yesterday. A government report today may show stockpiles climbed 450,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Statoil ASA and Platts said they’re being investigated after the European Commission conducted raids on their offices in three countries.

“The world will remain well-supplied,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London. “Higher prices lately have triggered a boost to capacity that will continue to outpace slack post-crisis demand growth.”

WTI for June delivery fell as much as 77 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $93.44 a barrel and was at $93.63 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:15 a.m. London time. The volume of all contracts traded was 25 percent above the 100-day average. Prices decreased 96 cents to $94.21 yesterday, the biggest decline since May 1 and the lowest close since May 2.

Brent for June settlement fell 13 cents to $102.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of contracts traded was 57 percent higher than the 100-day average. The front-month European benchmark was at a premium of $8.90 to WTI, from $8.39 yesterday. It closed at $7.65 on May 13, the narrowest gap since January 2011.

Price Probe…”

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Iron Ore Enters Bear Market Territory as China Slowdown Expectations Grow

“Iron ore slumped into a bear market on concern that slowing economic growth in China, the world’s biggest buyer, will reduce demand as global supplies increase.

Ore with 62 percent iron content delivered to the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1.3 percent to $126.40 a ton today, according to The Steel Index Ltd. The benchmark price has lost 20 percent since Feb. 20, when it reached a 16-month high of $158.90, meeting the common definition of a bear market.

China’s April industrial output trailed estimates and fixed-asset investment slowed, data showed this week, after economic growth unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter. Bank of America Corp. reduced its estimate on China’s 2013 gross domestic product growth to 7.6 percent from 8 percent.

“Chinese macro data has been worse than expected,” Daniel Hynes, Sydney-based head of commodity strategy at CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. (CIMB), said before today’s price decline. Rio Tinto Group’s planned expansion of its iron ore operation in Australia “brings focus back on the supply side which, from an Australian point of view, is growing strongly,” he said by phone today.

Prices will decline as supplies expand faster than demand over the long term, Alan Chirgwin, general manager of iron ore marketing at BHP Billion Ltd. (BHP), said May 8. Low-cost supplies mainly from Australia and Brazil will replace more expensive output and eventually exceed Chinese demand, he said.

Expansion Plans…”

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Dr. Copper Continues to Trend Lower as Stockpiles Build and Outlook for Growth Wanes

“Copper reached a one-week low in London on concern economies are weakening in the world’s biggest consumers of the metal while stockpiles are the highest since 2003, indicating ample supply.

The German economy expanded less than forecast in the first quarter, statistics showed today. Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its estimate for growth this year in China, following JPMorgan Chase & Co. by a day. A report today will show industrial production in the U.S. shrank 0.2 percent last month, economists said. The nations are the three largest copper users.

“The poor GDP figures from Germany and France plus banks’ cut on China GDP growth lent much pressure to the metals market,” Pengjiang “Richard” Fu, director for Asian commodities trading at Newedge Group SA in London, said by e-mail. France entered a recession last quarter, figures showed.

Copper for delivery in three months slid 1.1 percent to $7,166 a metric ton by 10:23 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices reached $7,151, the lowest since May 3. Copper for delivery in July fell 1 percent to $3.254 a pound on the Comex in New York. Aluminum retreated for a fifth session in London and tin tumbled the most in two weeks….”

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Au Falls to a Three Week Low

“Gold dropped for a fifth day in the worst run since February in New York, to a three-week low, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for an alternative investment and bullion holdings declined. Other precious metals fell.

Holdings in exchange-traded products dropped 6.2 metric tons to 2,219.7 tons yesterday, the lowest since July 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six major currencies, reached the highest level since July today. Gold has retreated 16 percent this year, tumbling into a bear market last month, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and equities rose.

“The dollar is doing well,” Peter Fertig, the owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said today by phone. The ETP selling “is of course also a negative for the market and it’s indicating that among institutional investors there’s a negative sentiment. Retail buying isn’t enough to compensate.”

Gold for June delivery fell as much as 1.3 percent to $1,406.30 an ounce, the lowest since April 23, and was at $1,409.70 by 7:49 a.m. on the Comex in New York. A fifth day of losses would be the worst run since Feb. 20. Futures trading volume was 34 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gold for immediate delivery in London fell 1 percent to $1,411.49.

ETP Sales…”

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