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The Super Bowl Prop Bettor’s Guide

via  Cousin Sal’s Gambling Blog on Grantland.com 




I can’t believe it’s already here. Super Bowl XXCLVICXIILCMCMC. (I did the Roman math — it works out). Either way — I’m prepared. I’ve read up on every degenerate gambler’s wagering option connected to this game. If Congress spent half as much time reading President Obama’s health care plan as I did peering over the Super Bowl proposition menu the country would be a better place.

I know betting on the big game can be a terrifying prospect. Eight months is a long time until your next pigskin wager so you absolutely must get it right. But we’ve been betting on NFL props all year long. We’re good at this — remember? How good? I’m only down 287,000 jermajesties* on the season. You don’t get more expert than that.

Here are a few can’t-lose Super Bowl props and a bunch that aren’t but should be.

The Patriots will convert a 4th down attempt (+120) 
Is this a proptical illusion? Seems too easy. Two weeks ago, Belichick employed an inexplicably ridiculous, conservative offensive game plan against the Ravens and the Patriots still managed a 4th down conversion. And if you think I have a problem wagering on old men in striped outfits measuring chain lengths wait until you see the next bet …100,000 jermajesties

Henry Hynoski over 4.5 receiving/rushing yards (EVEN)
Here it is — my Gary Russell Memorial Super Bowl prop bet of the year. (have a listen to my appearance on this week’s BS Report to get the full Gary Russell history).

I know what you’re thinking — EVERYONE’s going to take this one. It’s too obvious. Oh — that’s not what you’re thinking? Rest easy. I’ve researched this one a ton. Hynoski totaled a whopping 20 yards vs. the 49ers in the NFC title game. He’s surpassed five yards in seven games this year. Expect lots of points and lots of weird plays this Sunday. Sorry Gronkowski/Gostkowski — there’s a new Polish proposition sheriff in town — and his name is Henry Hynoski. Take the over. 150,000 jermajesties

Welker over 78.5 yards receiving (-115) and over 6.5 receptions (-115)
The Giants fantastic front four gives them the luxury of never having to blitz. That means they’ll be able to keep a few linebackers back in coverage to disrupt the Pats mutant beasts lining up at tight end. I think the confusion over the middle will force Brady to throw to his sure-handed go to route in Welker. Not to mention Welker racked up 136 yards against the Giants earlier in the year and that was before he grew the aerodynamically-enhancing mustache. 40,000 jermajesties each

First TD scored: Welker (8/1) and Manningham (12/1)
See Welker reasons above. These Manningham odds are high especially considering the man who will be responsible for covering him strongly resembles a guy who plays wide receiver for the Patriots. 10,000 jermajesties each

Total points 61-65 (7/1), 66-70 (9/1), 71-75 (12/1), 76-80 (15/1), 81+ (6/1)
All of a sudden, I’ve turned into the worst roulette player. Hear me out. Five out of the last 20 Super Bowls fell in this range. In that time half the games played in domes ended up at least in the mid 50s. That means these odds are too high. Worth a shot. 3,000 jermajesties each

Giants total points (+1/2) over Knicks 1st quarter points vs. Nets (-115) 
Simple logic — the Knicks don’t get credit for points when an inbounded pass sticks to a forward’s head — the Giants do. 15,000 jermajesties

Don’t look for these. You won’t find them anywhere …

NE defensive tackle Vince Wilfork’s halftime bowel movement over/under 16.5 pounds?

That’s disgusting. I’m going over. And I don’t want to hear how I’m better than this. I’m not.

137,000/1 odds any valet would be excited to take Matthew Broderick’s Honda CRV for a joyride as they are in this Super Bowl commercial

Anyone else glad the Super Bowl ads are leaked online a week before the game so that we can go to the bathroom during commercial breaks? Anyone? Anyone?

12/1 odds Kelly Clarkson and Madonna will make out at halftime
Not likely.

38/1 Odds Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will make out at halftime 
Even less likely.

2/1 odds Betty White will make out with and Seal at halftime. 
This is a slam dunk. But not with the recently separated singer — an actual seal. That chick loves animals.

What shade of red will Tom Coughlin’s Rosacea-cursed face be at the end of the game? 
Scarlet and crimson are sucker bets. I’m going with vermillion at 11/1.

65/1 odds Kelly Clarkson gets a last minute Chili’s endorsement deal and during the national anthem replaces the phrase “home of the brave” with “home of the awesome blossom”?
I know. That was a long way to go for a blooming onion joke. Bear with me — this is almost over.

Who will NBC show first in the owner’s box: The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo (Rooney Mara, daughter of Giants VP Chris Mara) or an actual girl with an actual dragon tattoo — Rob Gronkowski’s porn star girlfriend?
If the peacock network has any kind of sense of humor they’ll shoot for the latter.

Even odds that for the ninth year in a row Danica Patrick will get cut-off unzipping a leather jumpsuit in a godaddy.com ad. 
I joke but the truth is to this day she’s still one of the sexiest female dwarf drivers NASCAR has to offer.

Over 35.5 players from both teams are forced to share the same two prostitutes in Indianapolis. 
This is cruel and not at all fair to the players. Like the Brady children having to share the same bathroom as Alice the maid. Barbaric!

1/3 odds that Madonna gets replaced by Kellie Pickler after failing the HGH test. 
Hold on. I have a few of these.

Number of game balls made from Madonna’s skin — over/under 8
Almost there.

Which will be higher: Victor Cruz receiving yards or number of visible veins in Madonna’s arms?
Okay — that’s enough. Wait — one more.

Over/under 2.5 friends of yours that will out themselves at your Super Bowl party by knowing all the lyrics to Madonna’s La Isla Bonita

If by any chance you dreamt of San Pedro last night — please keep it to yourself. Or at least save it for a Glee re-run.

5/2 odds Eli Manning’s wife Abby leaps from her luxury box seat to her death after NBC shows a side by side photo of her and Gisele Bundchen.
Hold on — I’m looking at a picture of Abby now. She’s actually pretty cute. Let’s make it 7/2 odds.

Even odds that NBC shoe horns in Whitney Cummings’ irreverent female take on football.
Hey NBC — you already spared us Fear Factor‘s donkey semen stunt. Please do us all a favor and give us a pass on this one as well.

Which will be higher: television shots of Peyton Manning or television shots of Peyton Manning doing shots?

I know — it’s a thinker.

3/1 odds that at next year’s Media Day I will be asking white players who their favorite black person is much like I did last night on Jimmy Kimmel Live

Sorry, black folks — white people are dumb.

That’s that. Enjoy the game. And regardless of how much real money I’ve cost you this year with my fake advice — let’s really try to stay friends this year.

— Cousin Sal

*(Obligatory weekly explanation: A “jermajesty” represents the fake name given for a dollar amount. It is also the unfortunate name of one of Jermaine Jackson’s sons.)

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NBC Puts the Super Bowl on the Web Because It Thinks You’ll Watch It on TV

(via Peter Kafka at AllThingsD.com)

The Super Bowl is the most valuable show on TV. Which is why NBC can charge a reported $3.5 million for a 30-second spot during the Giants-Patriots game this Sunday.

But if you watch the game on the Web, your eyeballs are worth a whole lot less. NBC, which is streaming the entire thing for the first time ever, will be lucky to get anything near a million dollars for that same ad when it runs online.

So why is Comcast’s broadcast network putting the game on the Web, period? Isn’t this the classic analog-dollars-to-digital-dimes trade that Big Media strives so hard to avoid?

Nope, says Rick Cordella, who runs digital for NBC Sports. The network assumes that nearly every eyeball — and every ad dollar — that it gets from the Web this week will be a bonus, because whoever watches online is simultaneously watching on a big TV, the way football is supposed to be watched.

This is supposed to be the classic “second screen” experience that Twitter’s Dick Costoloand so many other digital folks are excited about.

And that makes plenty of sense to me. Many TV guys have gotten plenty comfortable with the idea of streaming their most valuable live sports events online, for free. In most of those cases, the general assumption is that anyone who’s watching on the Web is someone who can’t watch the game on a TV to begin with — see the CBS/Turner Sports livestreams of the NCAA March Madness tournament.

And in NBC’s case, it is packing the Webcast full of extra camera angles and other goodies, including a feature that will let you rewatch every Super Bowl commercial once it’s aired. The assumption is that you’re holding the TV remote in one hand, and controlling your laptop with another.

NBC already does a version of this with its Sunday Night Football broadcasts during the regular season, and the network says it draws between 200,000 and 300,000 unique viewers per game (that’s the source of that Vikings-Saints screenshot, above).

Meanwhile, those broadcasts are the networks’ best-performing shows by a long shot, so it doesn’t seem to have slowed them down. The NFL, meanwhile, reports that Web companion streams of the Thursday night games it shows on its own channel averaged 450,000 uniques.

So Cordella argues that putting the biggest TV show of the year online, for free, is really no big deal. But I’m pretty sure that this attitude isn’t shared by everyone in the TV business, and we might hear a bit about that today at the D: Dive Into Mediaconference. Curious to see what ESPN boss John Skipper thinks, for starters.

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Guess the Coin Toss & Eat for Free on Super Bowl Sunday $PZZA

(via BusinessWire.com)

Papa John’s to Give Free Pizza to America If Fans Correctly ‘Call’ Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss 

No National Football League sponsor knows a quality “toss” like Papa John’s founder, Chairman and CEO John Schnatter, but he’s counting on America to call the coin toss for Super Bowl XLVI so that the country can flip over free pizza.

Papa John’s, the Official Pizza Sponsor of the NFL, today unveiled its Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss Experience, which includes a free large one-topping pizza and 2-liter Pepsi MAX for the millions of fans enrolled in Papa John’s Papa Rewards program … if America correctly “calls” the Super Bowl coin toss. No matter which team wins the Super Bowl, Papa John’s fans have skin in the game.

“Papa” John Schnatter, who started Papa John’s in 1984 out of the back of his father’s tavern in Jeffersonville, Ind., has recruited Super Bowl champions Peyton Manning and Jerome “The Bus” Bettis to help spread the word and “coach” America on the coin toss vote.

Bringing this powerful threesome together is the crescendo of Papa John’s NFL season-long marketing strategy that has surprised and delighted millions of Papa John’s customers. Papa John’s, the only national pizza chain with a system-wide rewards program, will continue this blitz the next two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl XLVI coin toss. The integrated campaign includes a national television commercial featuring Manning and Bettis that first aired during yesterday’s NFC and AFC Championship games, digital media advertising, social media (#freepapajohns), and interactive, video-rich Web pages at www.papajohns.com.

America will make its “heads” or “tails” call for the Super Bowl XLVI coin toss by voting at www.papajohns.com today through Feb. 1. Schnatter will announce the result of America’s vote Feb. 2 on the NFL Network in Indianapolis and via social media and at www.papajohns.com.

If America’s call is correct, everyone enrolled in Papa Rewards as of 6 p.m. ET Super Bowl Sunday will receive an email the following day with instructions on how to claim their pizza and Pepsi MAX prize.

“This won’t be an easy call for America, but as the Official Pizza Sponsor of the NFL, it’s an easy call for Papa John’s to offer a promotion like this to our loyal customers,” Schnatter said. “The Super Bowl is the largest stage in all of sports, and it’s the biggest sales day of the year for us. We’re going all out with quality players like Peyton Manning and The Bus to make sure our customers have a great experience with the highest-quality pizza.”

“I’m thrilled to be part of the Papa John’s team and this exciting promotion that revolves around the biggest day of the year – the Super Bowl,” said Manning, who won Super Bowl XLI. “I really didn’t expect to be a referee this year, but – like I said in the commercial — ’a man’s gotta work.’”

“The pressure is on, America,” said Bettis, who is a finalist this year for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “It’s hard to believe there could be an NFL coin toss with bigger stakes than what I experienced Thanksgiving Day 1998 … but with free Papa John’s and Pepsi MAX on the line for millions of fans in Super Bowl XLVI, this certainly is huge!”

Occurring between the singing of the National Anthem and kickoff, the Super Bowl coin toss puts viewers on the edge of their seats … and players and coaches simply on edge. In fact, the NFC is on an incredible 14-year winning streak with Super Bowl coin tosses (Super Bowl XXXII – Super Bowl XLV). Some additional interesting Super Bowl coin toss statistics:

  • In 45 Super Bowls, heads has been called 23 times and tails 22
  • 24 of the 45 tosses have come up heads, and 21 tails
  • The NFC has 24 Super Bowl wins, with a dominating 31 coin toss wins
  • The AFC has 21 Super Bowl wins, compared to only 14 coin toss wins

Last year for Super Bowl XLV, Papa John’s set a single-day sales record by selling more than one million pizzas, driven in part by offering a free large pizza to everyone in America if the game went into overtime. In the fourth quarter, the teams were separated by only 3 points, but the game did not go into overtime. In fact, no Super Bowl has ever gone into overtime.

This year, America’s odds of winning free Papa John’s are much better … on the toss of a coin.

Papa John’s is in the second year of a multi-year sponsorship with the NFL.

Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, Papa John’s International, Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is the world’s third largest pizza company. For 10 of the past 12 years, consumers have rated Papa John’s No. 1 in customer satisfaction among all national pizza chains in the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI). Papa John’s also was honored by Restaurants & Institutions Magazine (R&I) with the 2009 Gold Award for Consumers’ Choice in Chains in the pizza segment. Papa John’s is the Official Pizza Sponsor of the National Football League and Super Bowl XLVI and XLVII. For more information about the company or to order pizza online, visit Papa John’s at www.papajohns.com.

© 2012 NFL Properties LLC. All NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League.


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Super Bowl Luxury Suite Menu is Not All That and a Bag of Chips

(via TMZ)

0126_superbowl_food_composite_superbowl_exCelebs piling into Super Bowl XLVI (46 to non-Romans) luxury suites better bring their own grub if they want fancy finger foods … because TMZ has learned this year’s stadium menu is loaded with home-style comforts.

While the Giants and Patriots do battle at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis —Centerplate catering will dish up some Midwest favorites:

— Braised Buffalo Short Ribs featuring natural buffalo in a classic French braise
— Heartland Farm Table platter with local veggie selections
— Chef designed Chicken Pot Pie

Basically, sushi lovers … stay home.

However, average joes in run-of-the-mill super expensive SB seats can get Indianapolis Shrimp Cocktails … which we’re told is legendary — despite Indy being landlocked.

Oh, and there’s a sweet consolation for the NFL teams that didn’t make it to the big game. All team owners get a giant jar of mixed M&Ms in their team’s colors.

Feel better now, Baltimore and San Fran?

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What a nail biting game we had tonight!

[youtube://http://youtube.com/watch?v=C2NU98NZF8o 450 300]

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Home Sales Hit 11 Month High

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Home sales hit an 11-month high in December and the number of properties on the market was the fewest in nearly seven years, pointing to a nascent recovery in the housing sector.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales increased 5 percent to an annual rate of 4.61 million units, with all four of the nation’s regions recording gains.

Sales of both multifamily and single-family homes rose.

“It seems that the housing sector may be slowly picking itself up off of the mat,” said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

Read the rest here.

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{PHOTO} Old Man Buffett Goes Big Pimpin’ with Jay-Z


81-year-old Warren Buffett — one of he richest men on the planet — got downright gangsta at the grand reopening of Jay Z’s 40/40 nightclub in NYC last night … throwin’ up the Roc-a-Fella sign … like a boss.

It was the first time Jay’s been out in public since the birth of his daughter Blue Ivy — though Beyonce and B.I. didn’t make it out to the party.

Jay and Buffett have been friends for years — and appeared on the cover of Forbes together back in 2010.

via TMZ

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DMX Ruff Ryders Are REUNITING!!!


(via TMZ)

It’s official … DMX and his legendary rap crew Ruff Ryders are getting back together — in fact, X tells TMZ, a blowout reunion tour is already in the works.

Ruff Ryders first lady Eve told us this weekend to expect a massive comeback — but X says the RR reunion is already underway … with CEO Waah Dean currently booking several venues across the country.

The tour is supposed to kick off in a few months — and X tells us, the entire crew’s already on board, including Swizz BeatsDrag-On, and Murda-Mook.

According to DMX, Eve and The L.O.X. haven’t signed on yet — but that’s just because he hasn’t gotten in touch with them yet. X insists, that will change very soon.

X tells us, “We are all family and we’re going to come back stronger than when we left … It’s going to take the nation by storm.”

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S&P 500 Caps Best Start to Year Since 1987

Let’s hope we don’t have more similarities with 1987…


U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its best start to a year since 1987, after confidence among homebuilders topped forecasts, Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. rallied and concern about Europe eased.

Read the rest here.

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(via NY POST) 

Beef, booze and babes — it’s the ultimate Giant playoff road trip.

A Wall Street fat cat has paid a ridiculous $240,000 to fund a rolling party on wheels in a luxury packed RV that is making the 20 hour trek to Lambeau Field for Big Blue’s matchup against Green Bay tomorrow.

Joining the road trippers are two beautiful waitresses, a driver and even the executive chef at Old Homestead Steakhouse, which sold the trip.

Peter Serafin, 57, a married, Manhattan-born Green Bay Packer fan, is taking the trek with five diehard Giant fan pals. The crew is riding high on the hog with hundreds of pounds of prime beef, lobster, shrimp, caviar and enough booze to get an entire NFL team plastered.

BIG CHEESE: Peter Serafin (in No. 12 jersey) and pals are traveling to Wisconsin in style, partaking in a pricey party staffed by the Old Homestead.
“It’s exciting,” Serafin told The Post. “I can’t wait. I wish I was in Green Bay tailgating right now. It’s like a dream come true.”

Serafin’s wife has to be the most supportive woman on Earth; today is his 28th wedding anniversary.

“Fortunately, my wife understood this is a one-shot deal,” he said.

“I wanted to throw this out there,” said Old Homestead owner Marc Sherry. “I mean, who wouldn’t want this?”

The $240,000 road trip:

* 1,086 miles to travel in a 70-foot RV

* 5 Giant fans and a “cheesehead”

* 2 beautiful waitresses

* 3 TVs

* 26 bottles of champagne

* 65 Kobe beef burgers

* 100 gallons of beer

* 150 pounds of prime beef

* 10 live lobsters

* 6 seats on the 50-yard line

[email protected]

Read more: http://trade.cc/yyn


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