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Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

Moody’s Cuts South African Banking to a Negative Outlook

 

“Moody’s Investors Service cut the outlook for South Africa’s banking system to negative from stable on concern that slowing economic growth will put pressure on the quality of lenders’ assets.

Moody’s estimates that the nation’s gross domestic product will expand 2.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2013, less than what is needed to “tackle high unemployment and substantially improve living standards,” the company said in a statement today.

“As a result of the weakened domestic environment, the rating agency expects credit growth and new corporate business opportunities for banks to remain subdued over the 12- to 18- month outlook period,” Moody’s said. “Sizable holdings of government securities that will continue to link the banks’ credit profiles to South Africa’s creditworthiness” also contributed to the reduction, it said.”

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Muddy Waters Offers to Pay S&P for Second Opinion on Olam

Muddy Waters LLC, the short-seller sued by Olam International Ltd. (OLAM) for defamation, offered to pay to get the commodity trader’s debt rated as it sticks to its contention the company is in danger of failing.

Investors will benefit from the rating of Olam’s public debt by Standard & Poor’s, Muddy Waters said in a statement today. Olam boosted its capital expenditure plans since Muddy Waters criticized the Singapore-based trader Nov. 19 and this increased its risk of failure, the research firm said.

“Olam now has no good reason to avoid having its debt rated,” Muddy Waters said. “Should it continue to refuse a rating, investors should wonder whether the company is worried that a rating would mortally wound it by making clear that the market has been underpricing its risk.”

Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese bought 1 million Olam shares today, lifting his holding to 4.67 percent, according to a regulatory filing. Verghese bought the shares at S$1.54 apiece.

Olam, whose debt isn’t rated by any agency, has the equivalent of $5.8 billion of debtoutstanding, of which $2.89 billion is in bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on its S$500 million of 6 percent bonds due October 2022 rose 21 basis points to 9.37 percent, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg, gaining for a fourth straight day.

The commodity trader’s shares gained 1 percent to S$1.575 at the close in Singapore. The stock has declined 9.5 percent since Block first questioned the company’s finances and accounting practices at a London conference.”

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$GS Makes a Bullish Call for 2013

“Goldman Sachs’ equity strategy team led by David Kostin just published its 2013 U.S. Equity Outlook Report.

And it’s bullish.

Here’s how Kostin’s team sees the S&P 500 unfolding next year:

Valuation: 12-month target of 1575 reflects 12% potential return
Our 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month forecasts are 1450, 1500, and 1575. We use six valuation approaches including DDM, uncertainty-based P/E multiple, cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple, price/book and ROE relationship.

“S&P 500 sales, which are measured in nominal terms, will rise by 4.4% in 2013 and 4.7% in 2014,” wrote Kostin.  “We forecast net margins will remain static as they have for the past 18 months, hovering in the 8.8%-9.0% band through the end of 2014. Given this environment, S&P 500 EPS will rise from $100 in 2012 to $107 in 2013 and $114 in 2014.”

Kostin first launched that 1,575 price target last month.  But this massive new 50-page report includes much more detail on strategy…”

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$UBS Puts a But on Asian Growth Equities

“Strategists at three of the world’s biggest banks are advising investors to buy Asian equitiesmost tied to economic growth after valuations fell and the global economy showed signs of recovery.

Technology, industrial and materials stocks will climb next year as China’s expansion accelerates and concern about the U.S. fiscal cliff fades, Niall MacLeod, a strategist at UBS AG, wrote in a report today. Valuations for cyclical shares are about 40 percent lower than defensive equities, including household- products makers, according to a Nov. 26 note by Morgan Stanley’s Jonathan Garner. An improving earnings outlook will help lure investors, Citigroup Inc.’s Markus Rosgen wrote on Nov. 26.”

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BERNSTEIN: Yahoo Could Go Over $25

“Another analyst is on the purple haze, pumping Yahoo this morning.

Well, sort of.

Carlos Kirjner at Bernstein has a note out titled, “Could YHOO Be Worth $25 Or More?”

His answer is yes, if Yahoo’s Asian assets appreciate in value and the core business does just slightly better than expected.”

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OECD Cuts Global Economic Forecasts Over Euro Zone Risks

 

“PARIS (Reuters) – The OECD slashed its global growth forecasts on Tuesday, warning that the debt crisis in the recession-hit euro zone is the greatest threat to the world economy.

In light of the dire economic outlook, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development urged central banks to prepare for more exceptional monetary easing if politicians fail to come up with credible answers to the debt crisis.

The Paris-based think-tank forecast in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook that the global economy would grow 2.9 percent this year before expanding 3.4 percent in 2013. The estimate marked a sharp downgrade since the OECD last estimated a rate in May of 3.4 percent for this year and 4.2 percent in 2013.

The euro zone is facing two years of economic contraction, while the United States risks a recession if lawmakers there fail to agree a deal to avoid a combination of tax hikes and budget cuts that will otherwise go into effect next year.

Providing the deadlock in Washington is overcome, the world’s biggest economy will grow 2.0 percent next year, the OECD estimated, cutting its forecast from 2.6 percent in May.

“The U.S. fiscal cliff is a very important source of concern, but the greatest downside risk remains the euro zone,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan told Reuters in an interview.

“The reason for that is not only recession, but also the fact that different negative policy (feedback) loops between sovereign debt, the banking situation and exit risks remain. So the overall zone remains in a state of fragility.”

Cutting its estimates, the OECD forecast that the euro zone economy would contract 0.4 percent this year and another 0.1 percent next year, only returning to growth in 2014 with a rate of 1.3 percent.”

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$C Rates $AAPL a Buy With 20% Upside

“One of the big calls of the day: Citi is out with a ‘Buy’ rating on Apple and a price target of of $675/share. That’s about $100 per share or 20% above the current price.

Here are the key points of the call, made by Glen Yueng, Walter H. Pritchard, and Jim Suva.

The company’s pullback is consistent with other big selloffs in the company’s history. Those were then typically followed by rallies of 20 to 50%….”

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