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$HLF Dives 6% as the FTC Opens an Investigation, Bill Ackman Pops a Smile

“The Federal Trade Commission has opened a probe into Herbalife.

The stock, which had been halted, is now trading down 14%. Before the news came out, it was up 4.45%.

Herbalife confirmed that they received a Civil Investigative Demand from the FTC.

“Herbalife welcomes the inquiry given the tremendous amount of misinformation in the marketplace, and will cooperate fully with the FTC.  We are confident that Herbalife is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.  Herbalife is a financially strong and successful company, having created meaningful value for shareholders, significant opportunities for distributors and positively impacted the lives and health of its consumers for over 34 years,” the company said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the FTC would not comment on the matter. A spokesperson for Pershing Square Capital Management also declined to comment on the investigation.

Herbalife, a multi-level marketing firm that sells weight loss products and nutritional supplements, has been at the center of a major hedge fund battle.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who runs Pershing Square Capital Management, announced about 14 months ago that he is betting $1 billion that the stock will go to $0.  Ackman’s thesis is that the company operates as a “pyramid scheme” that targets lower income individuals, particularly those from the Hispanic population.

Ackman believes that regulators, particularly the FTC, will be persuaded to shut the company down.

He was recently the subject of a critical page-one New York Times article about how he’s been coordinating lobbying efforts in Washington, D.C. to bring the company down.

Ackman commented on a conference call yesterday  it wasn’t his “favorite” article, but he thinks it will be “helpful.” He thinks that regulators will have to pay attention now that it’s a mainstream news story.

Herbalife has publicly refuted Ackman’s allegations that they operate as a pyramid scheme….”

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100 Years of Insanity

Since your generation was not around for most of this b.s. you can thank the interwebs for creating a collective conciousness to help you discern the next lie; ’cause you know they are not teaching this in school.

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZNXt_u7Cr0#t=53 450 300]

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U.S. Multi Nationals Hold $2 Trillion in Unpatriotic Dollars Overseas

What the article fails  to mention is that corporattions hold multiple headquarters overseas to bring their tax rates down to as little as 1-4% in most cases….so repartiating dollars back home is really not that big of a deal…..espcially when you get corporte welfare.

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I01-9yujhCA 450 300]

“An inefficiency in the US tax code is causing US multinationals to hold more and more cash overseas.

According to data analyzed by Bloomberg, US companies are now holding about $2 trillion abroad.

The multinational companies have accumulated $1.95 trillion outside the U.S., up 11.8 percent from a year earlier, according to securities filings from 307 corporations reviewed by Bloomberg News. Three U.S.-based companies — Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Apple Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. — added $37.5 billion, or 18.2 percent of the total increase.

The basic issue is that US companies are taxed again on money they make abroad when they repatriate that money to the US (for investment or dividends). So they opt to let it pile up in bank accounts abroad. …”

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NJ Tells $TSLA ‘We are Mafiaoso Ove’ Heara’ (sic,) ‘You Gotta Respect the Cartel Kid’

“Here was the score after Tesla Motors spent more than a year attempting to establish a direct sales operation in New Jersey: 0 to 696,749.

It was a blowout.

The luxe electric car company was outraged Tuesday when the The New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission approved a proposal banning auto manufacturers from selling cars directly to consumers. In a blog post and series of tweets Tesla blamed the move on bad faith negotiating by the administration of Gov. Chris Christie and “attacks” from the New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers. However, if Tesla was indeed under attack, it looks like the company didn’t make any attempt to fight back against the car dealers’ lobby on a crucial political front — the company didn’t give any money to local politicians.

Campaign finance records show, the New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers’ political action committee, CAR PAC, has made hundreds of political donations as the group lobbied on behalf of car dealers in the Garden State. In contrast, records show no donations to any politicians in New Jersey coming from Tesla, its employees, or the company’s co-founder and CEO Elon Musk….”

 

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The EU Drafts Up Sanctions on Russia

“(Reuters) – EU member states have agreed the wording of sanctions on Russia, including travel restrictions and asset freezes against those responsible for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine, according to a draft document seen by Reuters.

The seven-page document describes in detail the restrictive measures to be taken against Moscow if it does not reverse course in Crimea and begin talks with international mediators on efforts to resolve the crisis over Ukraine.

If approved by EU foreign ministers at a meeting on Monday, they would be the first sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia since the end of the Cold War, marking a severe deterioration in East-West relations.

“Member states shall take the necessary measures to prevent the entry into, or transit through, their territories of the natural persons responsible for actions which undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,” reads Article 1 of the document.

The second article covers assets held in the European Union and states that “all funds and economic resources belonging to, owned, held or controlled” by those responsible for actions which have undermined Ukraine’s integrity “shall be frozen”.

The document was approved by what is known as a silence procedure after no EU member states raised objections to the wording by 1100 GMT on Wednesday, officials said…..”

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Worries Over China Growth Send Markets Into a Pitfall, Copper Hits Multi Year Lows

“(Reuters) – A fall in copper to near four-year lows compounded increasing concern about China’s economic slowdown on Wednesday to send a wave of unease through world financialmarkets.

Global stocks fell for a fourth day and copper, often regarded as a proxy for China’s economic fortunes, hit its lowest level since 2010 after Shanghai futures had again fallen by their 5 percent daily limit.

In Europe, bourses from London to Lisbon tumbled .FTEU3 and safe-haven German government bonds were in demand as the jitters added to the effects of the tug-of-war over Crimea, which has pitted Russia against Ukraine and the West.

“Markets are watching what is happening in copper with awe and trepidation,” said Societe Generale head of currency strategy Kit Juckes. “It’s partly ongoing concern about Chinese growth (or lack thereof) and nagging worries about the Ukraine. And partly it is just that the commodity bubble burst last year and not everyone noticed.”

Copper’s fall follows China’s first domestic bond default which has raised concerns about a possible unraveling of the many loan deals which have used the metal as collateral.

The metal has been in freefall for the last three days but the worries finally appeared to be catching up with other markets. Stocks across Asia – although ironically not in China – had seen sizeable falls, while the Australian dollar, Chilean peso and South African rand, currencies highly sensitive to commodities, all buckled.

The aussie was last down 0.5 percent at $0.8935 though traders said it could have fallen much more had it not been for demand created by a big A$7 billion bond sale.

Japan’s Nikkei .N225 retreated 2.6 percent, continuing the see-saw pattern of the last couple of months, while Australian stocks shed 0.6 percent .AXJO. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.2 percent.

That mirrored a lackluster performance on Wall Street, where soft data left investors no wiser on whether the U.S. economy’s troubles were weather-related or something more worrisome.

Futures prices pointed to another negative start when trading resumes later with little in the way of U.S. data to drag attention away from China and copper.

CHINA CHILL…”

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Obama Exploiting Ukraine to Empower IMF and Dictatorships

“The globalist establishment, Russian authorities, and the Obama administration are pushing hard for a series of controversial “reforms” aimed at massively expanding the power and resources of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while further scaling back U.S. influence at the institution. Using various pretexts — and especially thecrisis in Ukraine — governments and dictatorships, including Vladimir Putin’s Russia, are even threatening to proceed with the radical plot to empower the IMF whether the U.S. Congress approves it or not.

The most important and far-reaching elements of the “reform” agenda include a doubling of taxpayer resources available to the IMF. Member governments would have to supply twice as much taxpayer funding to meet their “quota” under the agreement. Even more important, the reforms would also dramatically reduce U.S. influence while handing more power to what propagandists refer to as “emerging markets.” In reality, “emerging markets” would continue to have no influence whatsoever at the powerful globalist institution. The dictators and governments that rule them, however, would be given far more authority to dictate IMF policy and decisions.

Chief among the regimes that would be empowered under the “reforms” is the communist dictatorship ruling over mainland China, which for years has been calling for the IMF to become a sort of planetary central bank in charge of a global currency. Other governments that would have more influence include those ruling over the rest of the so-called BRICS — primarily socialist and communist regimes in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. All of the “BRICS” regimes have been strongly pushing for more control over the IMF in recent years, even as they push to radically expand its mandate to include a planetary currency.

“We support the reform and improvement of the international monetary system, with a broad based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty,” the five BRICS regimes said in a joint 2013 declaration, calling for Third World dictators to have a greater say in the IMF and the emerging global monetary regime. “We welcome the discussion about the role of the [IMF’s] SDR [a proto-global currency known as Special Drawing Rights] in the existing international monetary system including the composition of SDR’s basket of currencies.”

The biggest barrier thus far to the IMF “reforms,” reportedly agreed to in 2010, has been the U.S. Congress, which is so far refusing to approve the funding. In a statement, however, the Obama administration said it was working on overcoming that obstacle. Among other demands, the administration wants lawmakers to approve a shift of some $63 billion from a “crisis” fund to the IMF’s general accounts to comply with the 2010 reform “commitments” made by the Obama administration and the IMF board.

“We are working with Congress to approve the 2010 IMF quota legislation, which would support the IMF’s capacity to lend additional resources to Ukraine, while also helping to preserve continued U.S. leadership within this important institution,” the White House said in a “fact sheet” released last week, exploiting the ongoing fiasco in central Europe to advance the controversial agenda to empower the IMF and its less-than-friendly member regimes. The radically expanded U.S. “quota” would presumably be met going forward by borrowing from foreign governments or the Federal Reserve, which simply conjures currency into existence out of thin air and usuriously lends it to the Treasury at interest.

Having apparently lost hope of getting the legislation through on its own, the administration is now trying to tie the IMF funding demands to a bill showering U.S. taxpayer funds on Ukraine’s new rulers. “It is imperative that we secure passage of IMF legislation now so we can show support for the IMF in this critical moment and preserve our leading influential voice in the institution,” Obama Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said last week in a congressional hearing, just months after demanding a debt-ceiling hike. It remains unclear whether the GOP-controlled House will submit to the administration’s demands.

In a report from Reuters citing “sources,” however, the news agency reported that Russian officials are working to push ahead the drastic IMF reforms without the support of the U.S. government, which holds a controlling share of votes at the institution because U.S. taxpayers are its primary source of funds. If the Kremlin and its allies succeed in advancing the reforms without U.S. congressional approval, the news agency claimed, it could result in Washington, D.C., losing its veto even over major IMF decisions. Moving ahead without Congress, though, would reportedly require “complicated” changes to IMF rules.

The anonymous “sources” cited in the Reuters article claimed that the G20 governments — the regimes ruling China and Russia are both among the members — would give the U.S. government until IMF and World Bank meetings next month to obey. If Congress remains uncooperative, the “sources,” presumably speaking to the news agency in a bid to pressure U.S. lawmakers, said the G20 regimes would be “taking more aggressive measures” to ram through the reforms empowering the controversial global institution.

“It was agreed that in the absence of progress by the United States on the 2010 package by the April meeting of the IMF and G20, that there will be formulated a list of ‘bad options,’ which will allow [us] to move forward in this matter, excluding the opinions of the United States,” one of the three unnamed sources told Reuters. In other words, either the U.S. Congress does the bidding of foreign governments at the G20, or those regimes will advance the radical agenda anyway.

In an editorial, the establishment mouthpieces at the New York Times urged lawmakers to promptly obey, too. “As Congress moves forward with providing financial assistance to Ukraine in the form of loan guarantees, lawmakers should also ratify much-delayed reforms that would strengthen the International Monetary Fund and give it more resources to lend to troubled nations like Ukraine,” the Times editorial board argued on Monday, adding that the Obama administration had “led a global effort” to increase IMF funding to over $750 billion while curtailing U.S. power at the institution.

“Some Republicans in the House have steadfastly refused to let the reforms come to a vote, arguing unconvincingly that the fund doesn’t need the money,” the Times complained, presumably also suggesting that the IMF and the nations it shackles with debt need the money more than struggling U.S. taxpayers. “Ukraine’s troubles serve as evidence that it’s important to increase the fund’s resources.”

Ironically, the Times suggested that it was in “America’s interest” that authorities in Ukraine and other countries receive bailouts from U.S. taxpayers through organizations such as the IMF rather than from Russia directly. The claim is especially ridiculous considering that the Kremlin is leading the push to adopt the IMF “reforms” without approval from the U.S. Congress. The argument becomes even more absurd when realizing that Moscow is participating in the IMF bailouts agreement for Ukrainian officials. And it borders on lunacy when considering a New York Times report last week acknowledging that much of the “aid” to Ukraine will end up in Russian institutions anyway….”

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Economic Myth Busters – The Minimum Wage

“It has been quite some time since we did a ‘Myth Busters’, even though there obviously remains quite a bit of mythology. So we’re going to chop away at it piece by piece and demonstrate once again that the media, government, and what I like to the call the ‘establishment’ (which is the concatenation of the aforementioned and the banksters) couldn’t give a rip about the truth. The establishment only cares about what is expedient and convenient for itself.

I am continually amazed, especially when I step outside the world of economics and finance, how LITTLE people really understand what is going on. It’s all about paradigms and where your comfort zone is.  At any rate, we’re here to smash paradigms and hopefully encourage some critical thought in the process. This week’s Myth Buster deals with the idea of a minimum wage. Recently there has been quite a bit of scuttlebutt as Congress and politicians in general try to cozy up to the public before another set of what will almost assuredly be ‘more of the same’ elections slated for this fall. The catering is on. Suddenly the local intelligencia is on the radar of the politicians and we’ll get to spend the next 8 months listening to them tell us how they hear us and feel our pain, etc. Hogwash.

One of these cheap show gimmicks is the idea of raising the minimum wage. It sounds really good because all those people who are working for $7+/hour up to maybe $9 or so are expecting a nice raise if this goes through. It has already gone through for certain government contractors. One might make a very good case for discrimination, but we’ll leave that for the slip and fall crowd to hash out. We’re going to throw some cold water on the euphoria – as usual – and tell you why this is yet another really BAD idea.

The Myth:

“A minimum wage is good for the economy because it ensures that everyone has an equal chance to earn a living wage.”

It is my opinion that this gimmick is particularly appealing because we live in an instant gratification world for the most part. People will have their wage go up by as much as, say 40% from one week to the next, and suddenly the economy will be absolutely splendid. And they will benefit in real terms. But this is the NFL – and in this case that means ‘not for long’. But since most can’t see past their noses financially, it’ll work – until the inevitable happens and they find themselves right back where they started – and probably in worse shape when all is said and done. Will the establishment then pump another increase? There are ramifications to that, but we’ll save that for the end.

The Anatomy of the ‘Minimum Wage’

Essentially, the minimum wage is nothing more than a price control. Think of a supply and demand chart. Price is on the y-axis (see below). Well, labor has a price as well, just like any other good or service. And the price of labor is generally referred to as the wage. So, in classical fashion, we can plot a simple supply and demand chart. For the purposes of this essay, we’ll use linear functions to depict supply (QS) and demand (QD), but acknowledge that these functions are almost never linear. In the case of a price floor, the price is set (by the government) at some point above the equilibrium price. We’re already in trouble, because now the system is not efficient. There is what we economists call a welfare loss. If we were to analyze this quantitatively, we could calculate the magnitude of the welfare loss. However, in this case, we’re only interested in demonstrating that such an inefficiency exists. This is a point of very hot contention between the various schools of economic thought, but it’s actually a lot worse than the price control alone.

There is another concept one needs to consider and that is the cost of labor. This is the point of view the employer looks at. What does it cost the shop to hire another worker? Well, obviously there is the wages paid. Then there are various carrying costs associated with the new marginal (economic definition) employee. This is not to imply that the employee is of a low quality, but it is an employee who is hired at the margin, or edge. Think of a microeconomic situation where we look at marginal cost. That is the cost of adding one more unit of production. Well, the marginal employee is adding one more employee. What is the marginal cost (MC) of that employee? It is his/her wages, plus unemployment insurance costs, plus workmen’s compensation costs, plus social insecurity costs, training, and the list goes on. So it’s not just the minimum wage. The cost, depending on the industry, can be much, much higher.

At this point, the employer asks the question: “Does this employee’s marginal revenue (the value the marginal employee generates for the firm) at least equal the marginal cost of having the employee? If the answer is no, a smart employer won’t hire. If the answer is ‘yes’, the hire will happen, and there will likely be additional hires until MR=MC. In the case where MC > MR, there will be layoffs until that micro equilibrium is met. I realize there are factors and variables that play into these decisions that are simply too numerous to count. The point is to paint a general picture and bring some common sense to the subject.

Now let’s consider the situation where we have an individual who is working for $8/hour. Let’s say the carrying costs are another $2/hour, making the cost of that employee $10/hour. At this level, the business is fairly near equilibrium (MR~MC). The employee is paying for him or herself by working there. Then you have Congress, with its infinite desire to meddle in the business of others in its never-ending quest to be loved, stepping in. Given that Congress’ approval rating currently rests several orders of magnitude lower than the Titanic, it figures it needs to do something for the people before asking for votes. And all the advisors think this is a great idea because they were taught by a bunch of Marxist-Keynesians – like the ones who ‘educated’ Bernanke and Yellen.

So Congress steps in and jacks the minimum wage to $10/hour. Looking back on the aforementioned example, the carrying costs are still $2/hour – for now. Suddenly the MC for any new hires is greater than the MR and subsequent hires won’t be made – or the firm will raise prices. Perhaps a combination of the two will be used. In addition, it is also very likely that some firms will cut back on employees because their equilibrium is now upset. Many firms don’t have the pricing power to just pass it all on to the consumer. They have to eat it. Well, they don’t end up eating it – their employees do because they now have people on the payroll that can’t pay for themselves. It’s not any fault of the employee, but rather, is the fault of Congress for using an idiotic price control.

The Macro Perspective

Let’s look at things from a macro perspective. Most people are aware of the fact that the vast majority of the jobs that have been ‘created’ since the great recession allegedly ended have been lower-end service/retail and temporary positions. They’re exactly the types of positions that stand to be affected by a change in the minimum wage. Again, we’re assuming these jobs were even created at all. We know for a fact there haven’t been nearly as many as the government says, but that’s another essay. We’ve been down that road. So the net effect is that you’re going to have a bunch of people who are suddenly going to get the equivalent of a raise. What do you think they’re going to do with it? The responsible thing would be to attack the liabilities portion of their balance sheets, but a thinking person is going to look at past history and conclude that since we learn next to nothing from history, that this money, by and large, will be spent. More dollars chasing a fairly static supply of product? Shazam – price inflation. There is plenty of money in the system. There now needs to be a vehicle to get it into the hands of the spenders because the economy is flagging big time.

This is precisely the thinking of what I like to call ‘Flat-Earth Economists’. These are intellectual reprobates like Paul Krugman, Ken Rogoff, Mike Norman, and the majority of the policy steering arm of the Western banking syndicate. These are the sort of klutzes who think that the government should take your retirement accounts, force you to buy their debt, and bombard you with massive inflation – and yes, the minimum wage is a very good vehicle. More on that in the conclusion section.

It is very likely that I’m not the only one who is paying attention to the velocity of money metrics and staring aghast. The big shots in DC and NY watch those metrics too and they know full well what they mean. There is no recovery. M2 velocity of circulation is cratering with no bottom in sight. This means that money is moving more and more slowly through the economy. Not good. Things need a boost. People are strung out on credit and they must know the end is in sight. After all, there is a point certain when one simply cannot borrow anymore, at least from a practical perspective. The establishment needs to get some money in the hands of these people. It is not to increase their standard of living, however, it is merely another trick to buy some more time. A stunt to push the sun up just enough to get past another election.

Some Common Arguments for a Minimum Wage….”

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Technologies That Will Decentralize the World

“Across the planet, new technologies and business models are decentralizing power and placing it in the hands of communities and individuals.

“We are seeing technology-driven networks replacing bureacratically-driven hierarchies,” says VC and futurist Fred Wilson, speaking on what to expect in the next ten years. View the entire 25-minute video below (it’s worth it!) and then check out the 21 innovations below.

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R43OKYmGbhU 450 300]

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Can Telling a Lie Enough Times Become the Truth ?

Depends on your definition of the truth….

“Among my favorite anecdotes of the mortgage-industry decadence that preceded the global financial crisis is the one about Ameriquest’s wind machine. A motivational tool for managers, it made its appearance in the late ’90s at an executive conference at Las Vegas’s MGM Grand Hotel, where the future subprime leader hooked up a powerful fan to a plastic tent. Inside, exuberant branch managers jumped around amid a cascade of cash, allowed to keep as many swirling bills as they could grab.

That was how it went at mortgage-firm retreats: Here, a money-grabbing contest; there, a round of ritual chanting—“The power of yes! The power of yes!”—at a 2004 Washington Mutual gathering that was like the high ceremony of some bizarre money cult. Before long such incentivizing was part of the daily culture, if not official policy. Countrywide, for example, had a marketing program called the “High-Speed Swim Lane” that linked the bonuses of sales reps working in football-field-sized call centers to the volume of loans they originated. Compressing the programs initials—and cutting to the chase—employees nicknamed it “The Hustle.”

Mere excess was never enough for these companies. Though we’re all aware, by now, of the crookedness that infected the mortgage business last decade, the particulars are still striking. Did you know, for instance, that WMC Mortgage Corporation, owned by General Electric, hired former strippers and an ex-porn actress to entice brokers into selling their mortgages, according to a report by theCenter for Public Integrity? Or that Wells Fargo gave its mortgage stars all-expense-paid vacations to Cancun and the Bahamas and treated them to private performances by Aerosmith, the Eagles, and Elton John? Or that New Century sent top loan sales reps toPorsche driving school?

The upshot is clear enough: With Wall Street’s demand for mortgages unending and some loan producers managing to book up to 70 loans per day, the system didn’t just crash. It was brought down.

But we’ve also been made to understand that subprime lenders and their Wall Street funders didn’t act alone. Instead, they were aided by the avarice of the American people, who were not victims of the crash so much as accomplices in it. Respondents to a Rasmussen poll done during the throes of the crisis overwhelmingly blamed “individuals who borrowed more than they could afford” (54 percent) over Wall Street (25 percent). To this day, the view is widespread and bipartisan: Main Street was an essential cause of the meltdown. The enemy was us.

“It all goes back to the increase in the tolerance for debt,” David Brooks wrote a couple of years ago. The Brookings Institution, meanwhile, has argued that of all the possible crisis narratives, “ ‘everyone was at fault’ comes closest to the truth.” The “wider society” must face the music, it said in a 2009 paper. “People in all types of institutions and as individuals became blasé about risk-taking and leverage.”

Or, as Michael Lewis, our financial-writer laureate, observed: “The tsunami of cheap credit … was temptation, offering entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge.” Reveal themselves, they did, and it wasn’t pretty. Writing for Vanity Fair, Lewis quoted at length Dr. Peter Whybrow, a British neuroscientist at UCLA, who posited that human beings have “the core of the average lizard.” Lewis, running with the analogy, relayed Whybrow’s conclusion, which was that “the succession of financial bubbles, and the amassing of personal and public debt” were “simply an expression of the lizard-brained way of life.”

Is that not the truth?

Actually: No, it’s not. The notion that American consumers share the blame for the mortgage crisis is a lie. And it is one of the most pernicious out there.

 

Illustration by Zohar Lazar

Everyone-Is-To-Blame (or EITB, for brevity’s sake) has done much to mute the public outcry essential for sweeping efforts to respond to the financial catastrophe. To the extent that Dodd-Frank fell short of the root-and-branch reform that followed the last great crash in 1929, EITB is to blame. The fact that banks too big to fail before the crisis have been allowed to grow to twice their pre-bubble sizes can be traced to a nagging sense that they didn’t act alone. And if you wonder why, six years after the fact, no significant Wall Street figure has been criminally prosecuted, I would suggest that EITB has muddied perceptions just enough to allow the administration to sidestep the necessary legal mobilization. If everyone is to blame, then criminal indictments of individual executives can be framed as exercises in scapegoating……”

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How to Discern Irrational Exuberance

“……..It is interesting that, as humans, we fail to pay attention to the warnings signs as long as we see no immediate danger.  Yet, when the inevitable occurs, we refuse to accept responsibility for the consequences.

I was recently discussing the market, current sentiment and other investing related issues with a money manager friend of mine in California. (Normally, I would include a credit for the following work but since he works for a major firm he asked me not to identify him directly.) However, in one of our many email exchanges he sent me the following note detailing the 10 typical warning signs of stock market exuberance.

(1) Expected strong OR acceleration of GDP and EPS  (40% of 2013′s EPS increase occurred in the 4th quarter)

(2) Large number of IPOs of unprofitable AND speculative companies

(3) Parabolic move up in stock prices of hot industries (not just individual stocks)

(4) High valuations (many metrics are at near-record highs, a few at record highs)

(5) Fantastic high valuation of some large mergers (e.g., Facebook & WhatsApp)

(6) High NYSE margin debt

Margin debt/gdp (March 2000: 2.7%, July 2007: 2.6%, Jan 2014: 2.6%)

Margin debt/market cap (March 2000: 1.8%, July 2007: 2.3%, Jan 2014: 2.0%)….”

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DICK bove: The Velocity of Money and Inflation Will Collide to Cause Recession, Interest Rates Will Climb to 7%

“At some point over the next few years, the rate of money flow and inflation will start to catch up to each other, eventually sending the economy into a recession, according to a new analysis from banking analyst Dick Bove.

The good news in Bove’s forecast is that the day of reckoning is probably four years away.

The bad news is that a 7 percent rate in the 10-year note looms out there, something that would put a severe crimp in the current debt-happy economy….”

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Things are Not Going Well in the Ukraine, Diplomcy is Eroding Fast

“While it may have been pushed back from the front pages to keep confidence high, things in the Crimea, and in Ukraine in general (which may or may not waved goodbye to its gold reserves) are going from bad to worse with every passing day, with the near term catalyst of course being this Sunday Crimean referendum vote, which seems like a done deal, and which will give Russia a carte blanche to annex the territory over the howls of protest from Ukraine’s coup government, and the west of course.

Making this outcome one step clower, overnight the parliament of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea adopted an independence declaration from Ukraine which is necessary for holding a March 16 referendum.

“We, the members of the parliament of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Sevastopol City Council, with regard to the charter of the United Nations and a whole range of other international documents and taking into consideration the confirmation of the status of Kosovo by the United Nations International Court of Justice on July, 22, 2010, which says that unilateral declaration of independence by a part of the country doesn’t violate any international norms, make this decision,” says the text of the declaration, which was published by the Crimean media.

As RT reports, the document was adopted during an extraordinary session of parliament. 78 of 100 members of the parliament voted in favor of the declaration.

The Crimean parliament’s vote to become an independent sovereign state paves the way for the March 16 referendum for the Crimean Autonomous Republic and the city of Sevastopol to join Russia. If the referendum is in favor, the Crimean authorities will request for their country to become a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. The declaration was signed by the speaker of the Supreme Council of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, and the head of the Sevastopol City Council, Yury Doynikov.

 

“We adopted the declaration of independence to make the upcoming referendum legitimate and transparent,” Konstantinov said. “Now we declare ourselves the Republic of Crimea, we don’t add ‘autonomous.”

 

After Tuesday’s declaration of independence, Crimea will never rejoin Ukraine, Konstantinov added. He said that Crimea will adopt the Russian ruble as its currency soon after the referendum…..”

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A Scary Bed Time Story: The Walking Dead of 2013

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i636aVudL7I 450 300]

“by Julius Sequerra

Contributor

We were right all along. It was all about psyops, brainwashing, and the government plan to confiscate guns.

Social Security Records Show No Deaths in Alleged Sandy Hook Massacre
Sandy Hook Shooting <http://ift.tt/1fm5Mow;

The Sandy Hook official narrative is now dead.
Manual search of the Social Security Death master file lists reveals no deaths and no victims in the alleged Sandy Hook murders.

Published on Feb 22, 2014

Sandy Hook – NO DEATHS, NO VICTIMS; According to SSDI Official Master File

Alleged Sandy Hook Deaths Searchable in SSID Master File (PDF) <http://ift.tt/1fm5NbY;

The originating website uses a purchased copy of the Social Security Death Master File, updated through 1 January 2014, which is public information. You are invited to search all of these records for the putative ‘victims’ of the Sandy Hook massacre.

The Sandy Hook perpetrators know the SSDI or (SSDMF) is the best single  definitive source for actual births and deaths in the United States.  That’s why there was a systematic effort to deny public access to this database about one year prior to the alleged shootings.   Even copies of the file used by searchable ancestry sites had been altered, and the victims variably inserted.

It was this variability that led us to perform a search of the unaltered, original archived version of the MASTER file.
The search revealed NO DEATHS in the alleged Sandy Hook Massacre.
VIDEO: http://ift.tt/N2nx0x

The children should all be 6 to 7 years old (“born” 2005-2006), and should have “died” in 2012. The adult “victims” appear in the appendix.
(Each entry is followed by a 6-7 digit serial entry number, which demonstrates the continuity of the alphabetical listing – in other words, that they are presented here unaltered.)

Eric Holder Reveals Gun Grab Scheme on C-Span…”

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“Real Gangsters Run the World, Fuck What You Beleive” – Ukranian Gold Delivered to Uncle Sam for “Safe Keeping”

“According to the  iskra-news.info  last night ,Ukrainian gold reserves (40 sealed boxes) were loaded on an unidentified transport aircraft in Kiev’s Borispol airport. The board took off immediately.

A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that the transfer of the gold reserves…..

……Official narrative: gold bullion is going to USA (maybe to reassure the Germans their gold is in safe hands, after all the despite numerous requests from the German Govt The Feds have not given access for them to even view their Gold Bullion) . Real narrative: probably to Switzerland where it is divided between Yulia Tymoshenko and her cronies.”

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RLhpkaIC7g#t=115 450 300]

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[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeE3-rOG7i4 450 300]

 

 

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Murder For Hire and the Consolidation of Power

“Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com,

When one studies history, all events seem to revolve around the applications and degenerations of war. Great feats of human understanding, realization and enlightenment barely register in the mental footnotes of the average person. War is what we remember, idealize and aggrandize, which is why war is the tool most often exploited by oligarchy to distract the masses while it centralizes power.

With the exception of a few revolutions, most wars are instigated and controlled by financial elites, manipulating governments on both sides of the game to produce a preconceived result. The rise of National Socialism in Germany, for instance, was largely funded by corporate entities based in the U.S., including Rockefeller giant Standard Oil, JPMorgan and even IBM, which built the collating machines specifically used to organize Nazi extermination camps, the same machines IBM representatives serviced on site at places like Auschwitz. As a public figure, Adolf Hitler was considered a joke by most people in German society, until, of course, the Nazi Party received incredible levels of corporate investment. This aid was most evident in what came to be known as the Keppler Fund created through the Keppler Circle, a group of interests with contacts largely based in the U.S.

George W. Bush’s grandfather, Prescott Bush, used his position as director of the New York-based Union Banking Corporation to launder money for the Third Reich throughout the war. After being exposed and charged for trading with the enemy, the case against Bush magically disappeared in a puff of smoke, and the Bush family went on to become one of the most powerful political forces in America.

Without the aid of international conglomerates and banks, the Third Reich would have never risen to power.

The rise of communism in Russia through the Bolshevik Revolution was no different. As outlined in Professor Antony Sutton’s book Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution with vast detail and irrefutable supporting evidence, it was globalist financiers that created the social petri dish in which the communist takeover flourished.  The same financiers that aided the Nazis…

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaFklTLNy8c 450 300]

The two sides, National Socialism and communism, were essentially identical despotic governmental structures conjured by the same group of elites. These two sides, these two fraudulent ideologies, were then pitted against each other in an engineered conflict that we now call World War II, resulting in an estimated 48 million casualties globally and the ultimate formation of the United Nations, a precursor to world government.

Every major international crisis for the past century or more has ended with an even greater consolidation of world power into the hands of the few, and this is no accident.

When I discuss the concept of the false left/right paradigm with people, especially those in the liberty movement, I often see a light turn on, a moment of awareness in their faces. Many of us understand the con game because we live it day to day. We see past the superficial rhetoric of Republican and Democratic party leadership and take note of their numerous similarities, including foreign policy, domestic defense policy and economic policy. The voting records of the major players in both parties are almost identical. One is hard-pressed to find much difference in ideology between Bush and Barack Obama, for example; or Obama and John McCain; or Obama and Mitt Romney, for that matter.

When I suggest, however, that similar false paradigms are used between two apparently opposed nations, the light fades, and people are left dumbstruck. Despite the fact that globalist financiers shoveled capital into the U.S., British, German and Soviet military complexes all at the same time during World War II, many Americans do not want to believe that such a thing could be happening today.

In response, I present the crisis in Ukraine versus the crisis in Syria…

Ukraine Versus Syria

It seems as though much of the public has already forgotten that at the end of 2013, the U.S. came within a razor’s edge of economic disaster — not to mention the possibility of World War III. The war drums in Washington were thundering for “intervention” in Syria and the overthrow of Bashar Assad. The only thing that saved us, I believe, were the tireless efforts of the independent media in exposing the darker motives behind the Syrian insurgency and the bloodlust of the Obama Administration. The problem is that when the elites lose one avenue toward war and distraction, they have a tendency to simply create another. Eventually, the public is so overwhelmed by multiple trigger points and political powder kegs that they lose track of reality. I often call this the “scattergun effect.”

The crisis in the Ukraine is almost a carbon copy of the civil war in Syria, culminating in what I believe to be the exact same intent.

The Money

Money from globalist centers has been flowing into the Ukrainian opposition since at least 2004, when the Carnegie Foundation was caughtfiltering funds to anti-Russian political candidate Viktor Yushchenko, as well as to the groups who supported him.

The Ukrainian Supreme Court called for a runoff due to massive voter fraud and the rise of the pro-Western Orange Revolution, determining the winner to be Yushchenko over none other than Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych went on to win the 2010 elections, and the revolution returned to oust him this year.

It has been discovered that the current revolution has also been receiving funds from NATO and U.S. interests, not just from the State Department, but also from billionaires like Pierre Omidyar, the chairman of eBay and the new boss of journalist Glen Greenwald, the same journalist who is now famous for being the first to expose National Security Agency documents obtained by Edward Snowden.

Much of the monetary support from such financiers was being funneled to men like Oleh Rybachuk, the right-hand man to Yanukovych during the Orange Revolution and a favorite of neoconservatives and the State Department in the U.S.

The International Monetary Fund has also jumped at the chance to throw money at the new Ukrainian regime, which would prevent default of the country and allow the opposition movement to focus their attentions on Russia.

The revolution in Syria was also primarily driven by Western funds and arms transferred through training grounds like Benghazi, Libya. There is much evidence to suggest that the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi was designed to possibly cover up the arming of Syrian rebels by the CIA, who had agents on the ground who still have not been allowed to testify in front of Congress.

After this conspiracy was exposed in the mainstream, globalist-controlled governments decided to openly supply money and weapons to the Syrian insurgency, instead of ending the subterfuge.

The ‘Rebels’

Some revolutions are quite real in their intent and motivations. But many either become co-opted by elites through financing, or they are created from thin air from the very beginning. Usually, the rebellions that are completely fabricated tend to lean toward extreme zealotry.

The Syrian insurgency is rife with, if not entirely dominated by, men associated with al-Qaida. Governments in the U.S. and Israel continue to support the insurgency despite their open affiliation with a group that is supposedly our greatest enemy. Syrian insurgents have been recorded committing numerous atrocities, including mass execution, the torture of civilians and even the cannibalism of human organs.

The revolution in Ukraine is run primarily by the Svoboda Party, a National Socialist (fascist) organization headed by Oleh Tyahnybok.  Here is a photo of Tyahnybok giving a familiar salute:

So far, the opposition in Ukraine has been mostly careful in avoiding the same insane displays of random violence that plagued the Syrians’ public image. It is important to remember though that mainstream outlets like Reuters went far out of their way in attempts to humanize Syrian al-Qaida. Their methods were exposed only through the vigilance of the independent media. With the fascist Svoboda in power in the Ukraine, I believe it is only a matter of time before we see video reports of similar atrocities, giving Russia a perfect rationalization to use military force.

John McCain?

I am now thoroughly convinced that John McCain is a pasty ghoul of the highest order. He claims to be conservative yet supports almost every action of the Obama Administration. He is constantly defending anti-Constitutional actions by the Federal government, including the Enemy Belligerents Act, which was eventually melded into the National Defense Authorization Act; NSA surveillance of U.S. citizens; and evengun control.

And for some reason, the guy makes appearances like clockwork right before or during major overthrows of existing governments. McCain was in Libya during the coup against Moammar Gadhafi.

McCain showed up to essentially buy off the rebels in Tunisia.

McCain hung out with al-Qaida in Syria.

And, what a surprise, McCain met with the Ukrainian opposition movement just before the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych.  Here is a photo of McCain giving a speech to the opposition with none other than Neo-Nazi Oleh Tyahnybok standing over his left shoulder.

Why McCain? I have no idea. All I know is, if this guy shows up in your country, take cover.

Russia In The Middle

The great danger in Syria was not necessarily the chance of war with Assad. Rather, it was the chance that a war with Assad would expand into a larger conflagration with Iran and Russia. Russia’s only naval facility in the Mideast is on the coast of Tartus in Syria, and Russia has long-standing economic and political ties to Syria and Iran. Any physical action by the West in the region would have elicited a response from Vladimir Putin. The mainstream argument claims that the threat of Russian intervention scared off Obama, but I believe the only reason war actions were not executed by the White House and the globalists was because they didn’t have even minimal support from the general public. For any war, you need at least a moderate percentage of the population to back your play.

In Ukraine, we find the globalists creating tensions between the West and the East yet again. Russia’s most vital naval base sits in Crimea, an autonomous state tethered to the Ukrainian mainland. Currently, Russia has flooded Crimea with troops in response to the regime change in Ukraine. The new Ukrainian government (backed by NATO) has called this an “invasion” and an act of war, while Western warmongers like McCain and Lindsay Graham spread the propaganda meme that Russia made such a move only because Putin believes the Obama Administration to be “weak.”

Clearly, the idea here is to engineer either high tensions or eventual war between Russia and the United States. Syria failed to produce the desired outcome, so the Ukraine was tapped instead.

Energy Markets And The Dollar At Risk

In Syria, any U.S. led military action would have resulted in the immediate closing of the Straight of Hormuz by Iran, threatening to obstruct up to 30% of global petroleum shipments.  Foreign resentment could have easily led to the abandonment of the U.S. dollar as the petro-currency.  Both China and Russia implied the possibility of an economic response to American intervention, though they did not officially go into specifics.  In all likelihood, the dollar’s world reserve status would have been damaged irrevocably.

In the Ukraine, the chance of intervention has been countered with VERY specific threats from Russia, including a freeze on natural gas imports to the European Union through Gazprom, which supplies approximately 30% of the EU’s fuel.  In 2009, a temporary Ukranian pipeline closure led to widespread shortages across Europe.  While some in the mainstream claim that Russia’s influence over EU energy has “diminished” the fact is a loss of 30% of natural gas reserves for an extended period would inflate energy prices wildly and cripple the EU’s economy.

Another specific reaction given by Russia is the dumping of U.S. treasury bonds.  Russia’s bond holdings may not seem like much leverage, except for the fact that China has now publicly backed Russian efforts in the Ukraine, just as they backed Russian opposition to U.S. activities in Syria.  A dump of bonds by Russia would invariably be followed by a Chinese dump as well.  In fact, China and Russia have been setting the stage for a global dollar decoupling since at least 2008.   I have been warning for years that globalists and central bankers needed a “cover event”, a distraction or scapegoat imposing enough to provide a veil of chaos in which they could then destroy the greenback as the world reserve and usher in a global currency system.  The Ukraine crisis offers yet another opportunity for this plan to unfold.

The False Paradigm And The Globalist Chessboard…..”

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